We’re halfway through our NCAA Regional previews as NewCentral, D3AS and I teamed up to cover the Wesleyan Region. This is BY FAR the most contested regional, and I think it’s the only one where the bloggers wouldn’t be totally surprised if the top seed didn’t advance. The Cards are still the favorites, but as we noted over and over in our bracket reaction roundtable, they got absolutely screwed by the NCAA committee when they were given Kenyon as the No. 2 seed within the region. Not only do they get Kenyon, but they have to travel to Hopkins and play in unfamiliar territory. Welcome to the House of Tank N Tree, where anything is possible.
WESLEYAN
NCAA Rank/Blog Power Rank/Slam Tennis Rank: #6/#4/#4
Power 6: 70
How they got here: The Cards earned one of the five coveted Pool-C bids this year after finishing the regular season as the 2nd best team in the NESCAC. This year they notched top-20 wins over Amherst, Middlebury, Wash U, Kenyon, Trinity Tx, CMU and Tufts. In addition, they had a 5-4 loss to CMS, which is as close as any team (except Amherst) came to beating the Stags in 2019. Wesleyan had a brutal schedule that was tough for the entire season from their first matches on spring break all the way through the NESCAC tournament. They may be weary, but we know they are battle tested, and they will have to prove themselves yet again as they got absolutely shafted by the NCAA committee.
Why they can win: They don’t actually have a weakness. In their 11 matches against ranked teams in the top-20, the only spot to have a losing record is #2 singles, who just happens to be entering NCAAs on a four match winning streak including wins over Amherst and Middlebury (Ma and Farrell). They have played strong doubles all year long, and their #1 team should probably be ranked at the top of the region/get a seed at NCAAs. Finkelman has quietly had another excellent year, including wins over Hillis, Levine, Cuba and Wei. The middle of the lineup has arguably been the strongest part with freshman Noah Lilienthal leading the charge, and both the veteran and rookie depth has been a shot of adrenaline whenever the team needs it most.
How they can be beaten: While they aren’t weak at any spot, they are also beatable at more spots than not. While Lilienthal has been an incredibly tough out all year long and Fink/Anker/Roji have been very good, none of them are unbeatable. In fact, Kenyon provides a fascinating matchup for the Cards as they are very top heavy and Wesleyan’s greatest strength (besides their #1 doubles team) has been their depth. When you look at the box score from the last match, Wes took a doubles lead and then won #4/5/6 to win the match. Kenyon will be favored at #2 singles, and #1 is a grind of a tossup. While Wes will be favored at most of the rest of the spots, none of them are BIG favorites, perhaps with the exception of Lieb at the bottom of the lineup. The issue there, and one that will be prevalent through most of Wes’ lineup, is that only one singles player has ANY NCAA experience at this point and it’s Princeton Carter. How will the young guns respond to the pressure? The answer to that question could be the difference between a disappointing Sweet-16 run, and another shot at Midd with a Final Four berth on the line.
Player to watch: Adrian Roji. The boisterous sophomore is getting his first taste of NCAAs, and he will be a big part of how the Cards fare this weekend. He pairs with Noah Lilienthal to form one of the strongest #1 doubles teams in the country, and the duo will need to stay strong this weekend. In addition, he was just swapped with Lilienthal, which it looks like has much more to do with how well Noah is playing than anything else. However, after the swap Adrian promptly lost to Adam Guo of Middlebury in straight sets. Guo is a one of the most improved players in the country this year, but I wonder what effect that has on Roji. He can send a clear message by coming out and getting his team a couple CRUCIAL wins at #4 singles this weekend!
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 61%
KENYON
ITA Rank/Blog Power Rank/Slam Tennis Rank: #11/#11/#13
Power 6: 68
How they got here: Well Kenyon messed around and won their 324929th* consecutive NCAC match en route to another conference championship and the always coveted Pool A bid. The Lords carry an 18-3 record into the postseason and a nine match winning streak to defend in Baltimore. Kenyon’s three losses were to Trinity TX, Amherst, and the number one seed in the region: Wesleyan. Kenyon got here on the spectacular, and I’m talking otherworldly, years from their 1A,1B lineup of Jake Zalenski and Austin Diehl.
Why they can win: Kenyon can with this region because they might have the best two singles players in the Regional. Zalenski and Diehl are good for two points against nearly all competition – add their nearly criminal spot at three doubles and the juniors out of Gambier could be an automatic three points for the Lords. Paolucci is in his senior year, so he gets the #seniorboost on top of his already booming game. Kenyon carries a #whynotus swagger with them into Baltimore – they could win this Regional and they know it.
How they can be beaten: Hopkins, who four years ago walked into Gambier and did this to the hosts, lies in wait as the three seed in the region. While they’re not the tank and tree powerhouse they used to be the legos-on-the-ground-in-the-dark and bonsai tree could still make for an upset on the right day. The real way Kenyon can be beaten is that after felling the JayHawkicunos, the Lords wilt under the Cardinal heat. Wesleyan already beat Kenyon 5-3 this year (1 singles SPLIT) and could follow the recipe again. Kenyon’s depth failed them as they fell at 4-6 singles. Kenyon can lose if either of their top two has a bad day (unlikely at this point) or they fall behind in doubles and their back half of the lineup can’t keep up with the more battle hardened 4-6 of Wesleyan.
Player to watch: Pascal Lee. In Kenyon’s two full squad losses (Amherst and Wesleyan) they went down 2-1 in doubles both times and despite not losing a match in the top three they lost. I think Pascal Lee will be the player to watch because he and Doroskevic will be responsible for the top doubles point and he will hope to reverse his two close match losses. If Lee can have a big weekend and go 4-0 against both the blue and red legendary birds Kenyon should come out of Baltimore with an Elite Eight berth.
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 36%
JOHNS HOPKINS
ITA Rank/Blog Power Rank/Slam Tennis Rank: #24/#24/#25
Power 6: 67
How they got here: Johns Hopkins essentially cruised through the season as Swarthmore had a down year, and won the Centennial Conference 5-1 in the final. Hopkins had a quiet year, starting off losing to NCW but ending up beating some other opponents to keep them in the top 25. They did have a 5-4 loss to top 15 team UMW the other week and that is pretty much their ceiling at this point.
Why they can win: If this were any other team, we’d be saying how they essentially have no shot to make the Elite 8. But this is Hopkins, who can boast their experience (even though it’s different players now) in the Tournament. The Tank and Tree has been feared by NCAA opponents in the past. Hop is hoping for Vishnu Joshi to step up at the end of the year like last year and steal two matches (#3 dubs and #1 singles). Austin Gu has really come into his own these last few weeks and mans the #1 dubs and #2 singles spots. This is where Hopkins is going to rely on their “studs.” If they can get their top 2 to win, they are looking great.
How they can be beaten: Unfortunately for Hopkins they end up facing the best 1-2 punch in the country (yes I said it) in Zalenski and Diehl. Kenyon has beaten Hop in NCAAS before and they are not scared of the Jays even on the road. With good doubles and the two ballers at the top, Kenyon has a clear advantage in the 2-3 matchup.
Player to watch: Austin Gu
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 2%
JOHN CARROLL/FRANCISCAN/WASHINGTON & JEFFERSON
ITA Rank/Blog Power Rank/Slam Tennis Rank: NR/NR/NR, NR/NR/NR, NR/NR/NR
Power 6: 49/44/42
How they got here: Pool A giveth, where Pool C taketh. JCU, Franciscan, and W&J all arrive here after winning their conference tournaments. First, JCU won their fifth consecutive conference tournament (a first in 35 years) in a 5-4 win over Ohio Northern – Adi Jha at 4 singles being the come-from-behind hero in that one. Second, Franciscan won their 64th consecutive conference match en route to another conference title. They may not have had the best player on the court (that honor is yours Mr. Blose) but they did have the best team and Franciscan cleaned up dropping points only to Mr. Blose. Lastly, Washington & Jefferson won the president’s athletic conference, no sorry to quote their site, “they rolled” to the PAC title. W&J won convincingly and returned to winner’s circle at the PAC for the first time since ‘69.
Why they can win: If every player can do this – they might be able to upset Hopkins, Kenyon, Wesleyan en route to the Elite Eight…might.
How they can be beaten: They’re massive underdogs at every spot – numbers say they should be beaten.
Player(s) to watch: Nate Wang, Billy Presume, Andy Siciliano
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: <.01%