2019 Women’s NCAA MEGA Northeast Preview

The best time of the year is here! And no, it’s not Christmas! The bracket is out, and we have some thoughts, and for the first time ever, the Blog is doing a bracket challenge for the women’s side (!!!), but I’m here, along with some help from Analyst and ASW, to do a quick super preview of all the NE regionals that kick off tomorrow. Yes you heard that right, you get three for the price of one right here! I was always told quality > quantity, but why settle when you can have both?!?! So buckle up, ladies and gents, you’re in for a wall of text and a ton of previews!!!

 

The Wesleyan Region

Wesleyan

ITA Rank: 4

How they got here: With a surprise win over Midd to take the NESCAC Championship and get an automatic bid into NCAAs.

Why they can win: Because they’re talented and they’ve got hella confidence. Wes has a very strong team at every spot in the lineup, and have always been a pretty formidable and strong team for anyone to be up against. Their dubs looks to have gotten stronger over the past month, which is huge for picking up the initial lead, and their singles lineup has always been incredibly strong and deep. A big challenge from Brandies or Skidmore, the two toughest teams in their regional, seems unlikely. Plus, now with the NESCAC title under their belts, they’ve probably got a little swagger in their step.

How they can be beaten: Honestly, I don’t think they can be…at least not until they get until the later rounds of the tournament, where they will face off against tougher opponents. Wesleyan has really only been tested by schools at the very top of the D3 world right now (think CMS, Emory, and Midd), and I don’t think that will change during NCAAs.

Odds of making the Elite 8: 98%

 

Brandeis

ITA Rank: 8

How they got here: By surprisingly nabbing the surprise eighth Pool C spot!

Why they can win: Because they’ve got nothing to lose. Let’s be honest, the Judges are probably surprised they snuck into NCAAs with that additional Pool C spot. It’s like getting a second shot at life, and I can guarantee they won’t throw it away. Brandeis has a tough path to even get to the regional final, where they’ll have to square off against 16th ranked Skidmore. But, let’s remember that they have confidence and the past on their side. When the two played earlier in the season, Bradies picked up the win 6-3. While Skidmore has gotten stronger throughout the season, this team’s got nothing to lose.

How they can be beaten: Well, they can be beaten by the almighty Wesleyan, who certainly stand in their way of a deep run in the tournament, but they are also vulnerable to a threat from Skidmore. The T-breds are playing well, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves and just assume Brandeis will knock them off on their way to the Sweet Sixteen.

Odds of making the Elite 8: 1%

 

Skidmore

ITA Rank: 16

How they got here: By winning the Liberty League for the 9th year straight!!

Why they can win: Doubles and Risa Fukushige. The T-breds have showed their doubles prowess this season, and we all know Fukushige can hang with the best of them.

How they can be beaten: The T-breds have such a tough path to even get to the Sweet Sixteen, having to fight Brandeis for the chance to play Wesleyan. They fell to the Judges last time they played, and Brandeis is looking dangerous. I’m actually expecting this to be the blockbuster match of this regional, and truly could go the distance. But if they’re going to get by Wes, they’re going to need a whole lot of magic.

Odds of making the Elite 8: 1%

 

Brooklyn/Rhode Island College/Messiah/Penn St-Abington

ITA rank: unranked

How they got here: Brooklyn won the City University of New York Athletic Conference, Rhode Island College took the Little East Conference, Messiah claimed the top spot in the Middle Atlantic Conference Commonwealth and Penn St-Abington won the North Eastern Athletic Conference.

Why they can win: Because each of these teams won their conference tournaments, and had to take out some very competitive teams along the way!

How they can be beaten: They’ve got a tough road ahead. After battling it out amongst themselves, each team has to take on a tough opponent in either Skidmore, Brandeis or Wes – both of which are quite a tall task.

Odds of making the Elite 8: <1%

 

What will happen in the regional final?

NEW: Wesleyan def. Brandeis 5-0

Analyst: Wesleyan def. Brandeis 5-0

 

The Bowdoin Region

Bowdoin

ITA Rank: 7

How they got here: Wins over Tufts and Williams helped Bowdoin to secure a Pool C spot.

Why they can win: Bowdoin has a lot of firepower in their strong underclassmen, who are clearly hungry for the win. In the big matches they have won this season (Tufts and Williams x2), Bowdoin has taken the lead after doubles, and in singles they have proven to be very capable of gritting out some tough, close matches. This team also has the confidence of beating their main regional competition, MIT, 8-1 in the spring, so that never hurts. If Bowdoin can put together a good day in doubles and play tougher, more solid singles than MIT, they have a good shot to win the region.

How they can be beaten: Bowdoin showed their vulnerability at NESCACs after playing a closer than expected match against Williams before falling to Wesleyan with ease. Their greatest strength (bomb freshmen) might also be their greatest weakness, as I’ve said time and time again that experience matters in the post-season.

Odds of making the Elite 8: 48%

 

MIT

ITA Rank: 19

How they got here: Winning the NEWMAC in effortless style

Why they can win: MIT is coming off the high of winning the NEWMAC and has really hit their stride at the end of the season, so they seem to be peaking at just the right time. Their ranking of 19 doesn’t reflect their win over Tufts, and us bloggers agree that MIT is stronger than their ranking. MIT’s shown that their singles play (and especially their depth in singles) is a threat to top-10 teams. Plus, their main rival in this region is Bowdoin, who is looking pretty vulnerable after a disappointing NESCACs.

How they can be beaten: MIT’s doubles has been inconsistent this season. I think each individual doubles team has some good wins, but none of them has performed consistently. When MIT lost to Tufts, they went down 0-3 but rescued themselves with singles. When MIT lost to Bowdoin, they went down 0-3 and didn’t put up much of a fight in singles. MIT seems to be all-around playing better now than earlier in the season, so I don’t think they’ll lose to Bowdoin in the same manner as in their first meeting, but they do run the risk of going down after doubles and not being able to pull off the comeback in singles like they did against Tufts.

Odds of making the Elite 8: 51%

 

Nichols/Colby-Sawyer/SUNY-New Paltz/Husson

ITA Rank: unranked

How they got here: Nichols won the Commonwealth Coast Conference (after an UNDEFEATED season). Colby-Sawyer earned their spot by picking up the Great Northeast Athletic Conference. SUNY-New Paltz won the SUNY Athletic Conference. And Husson, who also had an undefeated season, picked up the North Atlantic Conference title.

Why they can win: Because they’re the underdogs and have nothing to lose. If they go out there swinging with all the belief they can muster, anything can happen.

How they can be beaten: Again, it’s pretty tough for any of these teams to find a realistic way to the Elite 8 in this region. The two big dogs are just too strong and battle-tested.

Odds of making the Elite 8: <1%

 

What will happen in the regional final?

NEW: MIT def. Bowdoin 5-3

Analyst: MIT def. Bowdoin 5-4

 

The Middlebury Region

Middlebury

ITA Rank: 3

How they got here: Despite a disappointing loss in the NESCAC finals, Midd was safely put through with a well-earned Pool C spot.

Why they can win: Because they’ve got a chip on their shoulder, and I know these Panthers are hungry for a national championship. Midd has looked strong all season, and have picked up big wins over teams like Emory, among others. They are strong at the top of their lineup, but also deep, with some of the toughest 4-6 singles players in the country. Plus, their doubles chemistry has been on fire, which is always important for post-season play. I think Midd will have some extra motivation after their unexpected loss in the NESCAC final, and I think that may turn an already tough team into an even tougher one.

How they can be beaten: It’s hard to find a weakness for Midd, besides the possibility of a team simply outplaying them and having a better day. I think that’s what happened last weekend against Wesleyan, but I don’t realistically see them being outplayed during the regional.

Odds of making the Elite 8: 98%

 

Tufts

ITA Rank: 9

How they got here: Tufts’ biggest win of the season was over Williams, which helped them nab a precious Pool C spot

Why they can win: Tufts is a young team of very solid players, and if everyone in their lineup has a great day, they’re a dangerous team. I think on any given day, any player in Tufts singles lineup can play great and pick up a win for their team against a better team. The big challenge, and we haven’t seen this happen yet, is for their whole team to raise their level on the same day during a big match.

How they can be beaten: Tufts is young and, in my opinion, inconsistent this year. They won a big match over Williams but haven’t shown they can hang with the next tier of teams like Amherst, Wesleyan, and Middlebury, falling to all those schools in a pretty straightforward fashion. Their loss to MIT was concerning also, as they lost five of six singles matches. I think taking down such a solid team like Midd is not a feat that the young Tufts team is ready to make happen this year.

Odds of making the Elite 8: 2%

 

Moravian/Cairn/Stevens/St. Joseph’s

ITA Rank: Unranked

How they got here: After stellar seasons, each of these teams won their conference tournament to lock up automatic bids to NCAAs. Moravian won the Landmark Conference while Cairn took home the Colonial States Athletic Conference. Stevens were the winners of the Empire 8, and St. Joseph’s (LI) came out on top in the Skyline Conference.

Why they can win: Because they’ve got the belief and playing in NCAAs always brings out the best and hard fighting nature in all players. Also, all these teams had phenomenal seasons that culminated in taking home a conference championship. They’re gritty and ready for the battles that lie ahead.

How they can be beaten: Depth and strength. With teams like Midd and Tufts in your region, almost every team in the country is going to be weaker at every position. Plus, if any of their earlier matches go long, these teams will also be a little more tired than their seasoned opponents.

Odds of making the Elite 8: <1%

 

What will happen in the regional final?

NEW: Midd def. Tufts 5-0

Analyst: Midd def. Tufts 5-0

 

Mary Washington Region

So, technically this is and ASouth region, but Amherst is playing here, so I’m covering it anyways, woo! Like last year, the Mammoths are taking a roadtrip down to UMW, which, according to Google Maps, is 451 miles away (phew, under 500 miles with quite a bit of breathing room – lucky for the NCAA). The Mammoths will play the winner of Wilkes and TCNJ, which is an easier match than the other side of the regional, where, presumably, Hopkins will square off against UMW. Regardless of the outcome, Amherst should be favored to punch their ticket to Kalamazoo without too much sweat.

 

Oh hey I heard there was chocolate here. This is ASW and I’m here to add my thoughts on this. NEW and Analyst so kindly offered to help me with this region but I turned out to be more productive than I ever thought I could be and am ready to help out. NEW and Analyst actually have real jobs and since I still live with my parents and have 3 cats it’s the least I can do. Today’s chocolate of choice is peanut butter M&Ms FYI.

Enough small talk, let’s get to NCAAs. Amherst will be the top seed here with Mary Washington actually being the third seed. Fredericksburg, VA is such a central location with nice facilities though so having Mary Washington host seems like a logical thing to do. This is a middle-of-the-pack region in terms of toughness, though as we stated above we all think Amherst will make it through comfortably. The schools in this region are: #6 Amherst, #14 Johns Hopkins, #15 University of Mary Washington, #37 TCNJ, Wilkes, Grove City, and Franciscan.

 

Amherst

ITA Rank: 6

How they got here: Amherst lost in the NESCAC semifinals to Midd but made the tournament via Pool C. Their biggest regular season wins were over Tufts (x2), Williams, CMU, Kenyon, and Skidmore, while their worst losses were Midd (x2), Emory, Wesleyan, and Bowdoin.

Why they can win: This is a sobering example of how the NE is stronger than ASouth this year, as the third/fourth best team in the NE is the heavy favorite over the 3rd and 4th best teams in the ASouth. Amherst is a top 10 tier school while nothing we have seen from Mary Wash or Hop has indicated they can hang with the top 10 teams. Amherst has too much talent at the top and enough good players to have the depth to take on anything Hop/Mary Wash’s bottom of the lineup can throw at them.

How they can be beaten: Hop/Mary Wash need a doubles lead or preferably a sweep to sink their teeth into the Mammoths. Then they pray that they can get 2 points at the bottom of the lineup.

Odds of making Elite 8: 96%

 

Johns Hopkins

ITA Rank: 14

How they got here: Hopkins won the Centennial Conference for the 13th consecutive year, defeating Swarthmore in the finals. Big wins for the Blue Jays this year include Trinity (TX), Swarathmore (x2), CNU, and a 6-3 win over Mary Wash in mid April. Their only D3 loss this season was against Skidmore.

Why they can win: We haven’t seen Hopkins be tested against any top 10 teams this year and it’s very possible that this team is on a different level than when we saw them lose to Skidmore at the beginning of the season. They have enough talent up and down the lineup, a very solid #1/#2 in Anjie Kashyap and Sophia Strickland, and have historically done well in the NCAA tournament. Amherst might be too much for Hop but Mary Washington is a winnable match, especially since they recently beat them. Chang and Asokumar at #4 and #5 singles have been VERY strong for the Blue Jays, and despite the remainder of the matches being close, Hopkins should be able to pull out 3 of them.

How they can be beaten: Amherst has more fire power up and down the lineup and if they show up ready to play then Hopkins will just be outmatched. In the Mary Wash match, #1 and #2 doubles are relative weak spots for Hopkins and if the Eagles get both of those then singles will be verrry tight.

Odds of making Elite 8: 3%

 

Mary Washington

ITA Rank: 15

How they got here: Mary Washington w on the Capital Athletic Conference (CAC) for the 27th time after beating CNU. Their big D3 wins this season were Caltech, Skidmore, Southwestern, TCNJ, CNU, and Washington and Lee.

Why they can win: Mary Washington has played one of the tougher schedules this year with a lot of matches against teams ranked 10-25. At this point in the season these women can figure out ways to win matches. Quinn and Summers have done very well at #1 doubles.

How they can be beaten: #2 and #3 doubles are unreliable against top 15 opponents and there are plenty of teams in the country who are just as deep or deeper than the Eagles in singles. Unfortunately for them, both Johns Hopkins and Amherst fall into this category. Summers isn’t playing as well as last year, most likely due to her lingering hip/back injury.

Odds of making Elite 8: 1%

 

#37 TCNJ/Wilkes/Grove City/Franciscan

How they got here: TCNJ is 16-4 on the year and made the tournament by winning the New Jersey Athletic Conference (NJAC). Wilkes is 15-4 on the year and made the tournament via Pool A by winning their 13th consecutive Middle Atlantic Conference (MAC) title. Grove City is 15-2 on the year and won the Presidents’ Athletic Conference (PAC) for their Pool A spot. Last but not least, Franciscan is 16-5 overall and won their 3rd straight Allegheny Mountain Collegiate Conference (AMCC) title.

Why they can win: Based on the rankings, TCNJ is the cream of this crop and is favored in their first round matchup with Wilkes. Aside from that these teams are just outmatched. I’m sorry.

How they can be beaten: Healthy Amherst, Hopkins, and Mary Washington teams are just a tier above these teams up and down the lineup.

Odds of making Elite 8: <.1%

 

Overview:

On Friday, TCNJ will take on Wilkes, Hopkins will take on Grove City, and Mary Washington will take on Franciscan. TCNJ, Hopkins, and Mary Wash are heavy favorites in these matches, you can expect them to win pretty quickly. On Saturday, TCNJ/Wilkes will take on Amherst, which will serve as a warm up match in Fredericksburg for the Mammoths. They should take it 5-0. The more interesting matchup will be Mary Wash vs. Hopkins. This will be a good match but I think Hopkins will once again take a 2-1 doubles lead. Mary Washington will show some fight, especially since they’re playing at home, but Hopkins will remain firmly in the lead throughout the match before finishing it at 5-2 or 5-3, similar to their last meeting. I think Hopkins is looking very sharp right now and Mary Wash is battle tested but hampered by injuries. Sunday’s Round of 16 match will feature Mary Wash/Hopkins against Amherst. Check out our blogger predictions below.

 

What will happen in the regional final?

NEW: Amherst def. UMW 5-0

Analyst: Amherst def. Hopkins 5-1

ASW: Amherst def. Hopkins 5-1