Pool C Update #4 – Endgame

I’ve been called upon once again from my year long slumber to give an update on the ever-changing Pool C picture. Given that this is basically the only article I have continued to deliver on my promises, I guess I should keep up my stellar record in one thing I do. ASouth is back from California, and that means DIII Tennis will rejoice. With multiple matches happening again today and a massive upset that shook the DIII Tennis world to its core, I guess you could say we are officially in our late season element. The Blog Group Chat was lit with excitement and just like your local fashion influencer, I’ve gotten many questions on where everyone will fall in the Pool C picture.

WEEKLY POOL C PSA BELOW:

If you’re looking for NCAA Rules, but slightly outdated, please click the link in BLOGROLL to the top left of the site. While your arrow is hovering around there, feel free to press the Paypal Donation box too. I hear it brings good luck to all those who click on it.

Reminder: There are 5 Pool C Spots this year, with 2 Pool B spots.

The previous Pool C article is below. Do you really need to read it? No, because I am so very thorough. Also, stop telling me I missed Skidmore from the Amherst column. I don’t care about that match and I’m almost sure it happened in the fall. Is that the hill you want to die on? Probably not. Think like a CEO, people.

What Happened Today

I watched Avengers

Amherst def. Middlebury, 5-4

Add another win to the Amherst docket. This is a team that like three people believed at the beginning of the year (two of them are me and D3NE). They have grown throughout the season and have notched a SH*T TON of quality wins. They are like when Kansas beats 10 Quadrant 1 teams in basketball but still loses a lot. Amherst has made this season their b*tch (am I allowed to say that? Where’s HR?) and will be going into the NESCAC with what I believe is the #1 seed? NE, check me on that in the comments. Amherst also deals Middlebury another loss to their resume, which seems to be a going theme these days. Coach Hansen decided to play Farrell at #1 and got smoked, so there’s that. Interesting move to play for individuals when your team isn’t a lock to play in the playoffs. But, I’m not a coach.

Bowdoin def. Williams, 6-3?

Bowdoin has had an OK past two weeks, but for some reason they kept falling in my Pool C projections. Williams, on the other hand, is absolutely on the outside looking in. You will see why later. This match wasn’t a surprise to anyone outside of D3NE’s studio apartment in the boonies of Boston, but whatever. Bowdoin wins and continues to hold some semblance of confidence in their Pool C hopes.

Emory def. Wash U, 5-3, UAA Tournament

There was a point in this match that Wash U had the “lead” on paper and I was hoping that the Bears might pull it off to throw this season into even more flux. There really isn’t more of an argument to have more Pool C spots than this year. It’s just disgusting. Anyways, this was a result that many expected and Emory moves onto the finals of the UAA Tournament. They are looking like the Pool A favorite out of the UAA and a potential top 2 seed come NCAA time. Clockwork, bro.

BRANDEIS DEF. CHICAGO 5-3, UAA TOURNAMENT

And now, we get to the meat and potatoes. Brandeis came in here with the biggest upset of the day, and potentially the biggest upset that anyone cared about on the year. Amherst over CMS will have something to say about that, but this shit was on a neutral court. Brandeis entered the UAA Tournament needing something huge to happen and something huge happened. Before we start going nuts about this in an article (maybe you’ll even get a guest article from someone), let’s get to the trusty Pool C table.

My Thoughts

This is a f*cking nightmare. But to me, there are a couple clear paths of thinking. Too many teams have beaten other teams to just go by H2Hs, which means we should be going by resume and use H2H when necessary. Which, I’d hope is what the NCAA does, but they probably just watch frogs race for the final spots anyways. And yet I still blog about it.

What I THINK SHOULD HAPPEN

As you can see from the above table, I think the following teams should be in:

• Chicago, Wesleyan, Bowdoin, Middlebury, and BRANDEIS

Why do I say this? Well, we can say that Chicago and Wesleyan are locks right now in my mind. They have both done enough this year and filled their schedule with quality wins.  Chicago is a more clear lock than Wesleyan, who could still theoretically shit the bed and see Williams or someone go on a huge run to overtake them, but yea. Let’s just say they are in.

The REST OF THE TEAMS are all futzing around with similar resumes and that is what is making this ridiculous. Brandeis’s win over Chicago today is a key, in conference, late season win over a team that has BEATEN Williams on the year, which notches an indirect for Brandeis in my book. If only Chicago played Middlebury this year, then we’d really be talking. But, we’re not. Bowdoin and Middlebury both have beaten Brandeis directly, have more top 10 wins than Brandeis, and still have a couple matches to go in the NESCAC before they are done. Both these teams SHOULD be feeling pretty good. If we assume Bowdoin and Middlebury are in, that leaves us with one spot – Brandeis vs. Wash U. Technically, Brandeis has an indirect over WASH via the Chicago win today. If Chicago consolidates that break and beats Wash U again tomorrow, I don’t see any way you could put Wash U in over Brandeis… fairly. Wash U does have that top 10 win over Amherst, which is looking really freaking good right now. But, that was early in the season.

What MIGHT HAPPEN BECAUSE THE NCAA DOES STUPID CRAP SOMETIMES

The Pool C picture is pretty clear to me when broken out in that table above. I don’t have an argument for Wash U to get in over any of the other teams ahead of them. I really don’t. But, DO NOT FORGET THIS. THE NCAA LIKES TO MAKE IT EASY FOR THEMSELVES. Why do I mention this? That’s because in the above scenario, there is no Central #1 seed that could play at Kenyon for a regional in the NCAA. The NE teams cannot go to Kenyon, meaning Kenyon would be a #1 seed that hosts. They’ve had a good year, but come on. We’re talking bracketology now, which shouldn’t have any bearing on Pool C when you think about it. But, the NCAA has shown favorites in the past. Here’s what I think might happen.

• Chicago, Wesleyan, Bowdoin, Middlebury, and WASH U make it. Brandeis goes home.

I am putting this out there now. If this happens, I will riot in front of Trump Tower the NCAA office (where ever it is) until my feet bleed. Brandeis deserves to be in after today. And I will do what is in my power to give them a fair shot.

Other SH*T

So, those are my two scenarios AS THINGS STAND NOW. Remember, we have NESCACs left to play, Brandeis has Emory, and Wash U has Chicago. So, let’s get into our scenarios if things happen tomorrow. First, let me take a bathroom break and down a beer…. (sorry wasn’t supposed to say that)

Locks

Chicago

Somewhat Locked

Wesleyan

Feeling like 1AM in a NYC Bar

Bowdoin

Middlebury

Feeling like 3AM in a NYC Bar

Brandeis

Wash U

Feeling like 4AM on NYC Streets

Williams

What happens if Brandeis wins Pool A, Wash U loses to Chicago?

If Brandeis wins tomorrow, Emory moves into the Pool C conversation. They would be a lock with wins over Midd, Williams and Wash U and only one loss to Brandeis and Chicago each. It’s not the strongest resume but they’d be in. They’re Emory. Brandeis would get that Pool A bid, and in theory, WASH U would be knocked out. The NCAA can try some shady stuff but no way Wash U gets in above Middlebury or Bowdoin, right? God help me.

What happens if Brandeis wins Pool A, Wash U beats Chicago?

Now we’re getting freaky, and I love it. Wash U beating Chicago tomorrow opens a huge can of worms for the NESCAC, because we all know that the NCAA isn’t going to keep Wash U out of the tournament with a Chicago win in the last match of the season. By my calculations, the only team without a top 5 win, Middlebury, would be the LAST TEAM OUT. HOT DAMN! Of course, that would depend on NESCAC scenarios, but hell, that’d be sexy stuff.

Brandeis loses to Emory, Wash U beats Chicago?

This would be super interesting, because this makes the Brandeis win today look a little less awesome. Wash U would have that win over Chicago and the only thing Brandeis would technically have over them is a # finish in the UAA, which is totally based on draw. Wash U and Brandeis would have essentially had the same tournament, one that Wash U went into with a better ranking and better seed. Wash U would pass Brandeis in my mind. I think that would be fair.

Brandeis and Wash U both lose?

Same as the first scenario that I think should happen. Brandeis in over Wash U, but with the NCAA being a huge wild card.

Final Thoughts

Check back tomorrow for Pool C action and Bracketology after this crazy weekend. Then NESCACs next week. What a freaking crazy day. Watch out for a UAA Final preview later tonight. ASouth, OUT.