RegionalNEC Hodge Podge

It’s UAA week, so before we get to the rest of the festivities, I’m going to give a little RegionalNEC-slanted preview, featuring everyone’s favorite bottom feeders NYU and Rochester.  These two are both solid teams but when the rest of your conference is in the top 15, it’s quite the uphill battle. Luckily, these two squads have each other, and their annual seventh-place match has created some compelling stories in recent years.

Tonight I’ll also hit briefly on today’s epic battle of New Jersey between TCNJ and Stevens, do a little preview of Carleton vs GAC, and (god help me) discuss the expanded NJAC conference (edit: NOPE, I’ll do a tweet thread about this at some point). I’m exhausted and have to be up early (and have spent the past hour watching a periscope of a police chase in LA), but if ASouth can pull articles out of his rear end while on a business trip, I’ve got no excuse either. So let’s get to it!

NYU and Rochester UAA Preview

To refresh your memory, Rochester snapped their streak of seven (?) straight years in last place in the UAA with a come from behind 5-4 win over NYU last spring. Prior to that, for at least the past five (?) years it was NYU over Rochester for seventh place in the UAA. We’re just about guaranteed another showdown between these two teams for seventh place, but before I talk about that potential match, let’s look at how the first two days might go.

Rochester vs Chicago

For fun I looked back at the 2012 UAA Preview, and this is what was written about the 1/8 Emory vs Rochester match: “I don’t think I could possibly spend more than two sentences writing about this one. Emory’s C lineup would be Rochester 9-0.” Harsh! But also probably true! This time around, while I still expect it to be 9-0, we’re likely to see at least a couple competitive matches. Rochester’s best chances for a point? I’d say #2 doubles or (more likely) Chicago pulls someone after a doubles sweep and Masaru Fujimaki wins at #1 or Yifan Shen pulls it out at #3. HOWEVER, with the news that the UAA is now playing to decision, it’s unlikely Rochester will even have the chance to pull out a match before Chicago clinches. So expect 5-0 Chicago.

NYU vs Emory

Emory usually enjoys spanking lesser teams, playing their full lineup and going full throttle, which I certainly respect. That’s bad news for NYU, who is completely outmatched at every position. The biggest problem is that they are likely well aware of that, too. It’s like when you’re on the back nine on Sunday with Tiger in his red shirt, one stroke behind. The actual sport doesn’t even matter at that point—it’s all about the reputation. And for Tiger (and Emory), it’s bad news for everyone else. Emory 5-0.

DAY 2

Rochester vs Brandeis or Case

Rochester lost 9-0 to Case on Rochester’s home courts earlier this year. I don’t think playing outdoors in Florida helps Rochester at all, so if they play again, I expect another blanking. But just for fun (and because Ronald Wu requested more bold predictions) I’ll take Rochester at #1 doubles before Case wins 5-1 with Fujimaki leading Chen when the match is called.

Of course, Case could beat Brandeis, in which case we’ll be looking at a Rochester vs Brandeis match. If Deis loses, they’ll be eliminated from any shot at NCAAs, and I think they come out with a chip on their shoulder and destroy the Jackets. 5-0 Brandeis.

NYU vs CMU or Wash U

While Wash U should beat CMU, that’s not a foregone conclusion. If NYU faces CMU, I actually think the Violets could keep it competitive in singles. Even though CMU’s doubles was quite poor against Kenyon last weekend, NYU is two steps below that level, so the Tartans will sweep and then clinch quickly with some dudes like Levine/Downing (whoever plays 2) and Safran at 5.

If CMU pulls the upset and Wash U ends up in the backdraw, the Bears will be fighting for their NCAA lives, needing to finish fifth to stay in contention. They’d take no chances against NYU and I am certain that in this scenario Follmer would have them rearing to go, and it would be a quick match. So regardless of who NYU plays on Day 2, I expect a 5-0 loss.

DAY 3

Rochester vs NYU

CHECK BACK AFTER UAA Day 1 for a detailed preview once I see lineups

Stevens def TCNJ 5-4

Heckuva battle by both squads and a great win for the Ducks. I give a lot of credit to Coach Gachko (and Assistant Coach Zeevy) for the way they’ve bounced back from losses this year to Grinnell, Goucher, and Houghton. With wins over nationally ranked TCNJ and Hobart in the past few weeks, it’s been quite a turnaround—honestly it’s some of the widest ranges of results I can think of in recent memory. The box score tells the story better than I can, but the big takeaway is really that Stevens has turned their season around, should cruise through the Empire 8 tournament (despite their previous loss to Houghton) and will be a formidable #3 seed at NCAAs. For TCNJ, this is their worst loss in what’s been a solid season, but it won’t be enough to cause them any concern when it comes to qualifying for Pool B.

Carleton vs Gustavus (Saturday)

Gustavus has shown signs of being significantly down from the last few years, but at the same time their win over Trinity a few weeks ago suggested they’re still a legit top 15-20 team. They haven’t had any trouble with Carleton in years, but this is the best version of Carleton we’ve seen in quite some time. Leo is favored at #1 singles (though not by that much), but beyond that I’d say it’s either a toss up or advantage GAC. As I always say: never bet against the usual conference champ until proven otherwise, so I’m taking GAC 6-3 in a competitive match that will set up a compelling rematch in the MIAC final in another week.