I’ve been stuck at home with the world’s most annoying case of acute bronchitis for the past 3 weeks and I am literally going insane, so I might as well take a break from coughing on my cats and making questionable Netlfix choices to give our loyal readers some content! Before we get started, shout out to the Dogs of D3 Tennis Bracket challenge! Submit to @D3RegASouth, my new bonafide favorite blogger. Today’s topic is the UAA tournament, which is more non-ASouth than ASouth but that’s ok, NEW is here to help me!! We’re going to take a trip to Orlando, FL for the UAA championships. I would be remiss if I did not at least bring up the UAA banquet, in which the dance floor is torn up year after year. If anyone would like to send me footage of some sweet dance moves, I will give you a shout out in every article I write for the rest of the year. I will tell you who I am. As if that motivates anyone.
As you’ll see below, this tournament is not exciting because we don’t know the eventual victor, but because of the matches we’ll get that don’t involve Emory. Sorry Emory. As we all know, there are 8 Pool C slots on the women’s side, and based on the current (April 11) rankings, #11 Chicago (3 seed) is the last into the NCAA tournament, with #14 Brandeis (2 seed) being the first out. However, Brandeis has recently pulled off some big wins, earning them the 2 seed in the tournament and #10 CMU has somehow found themselves on the outside looking in as they were given the 4 seed and a semifinal match with Emory. There are 2 Pool C spots for these 3 teams, and this weekend is going to determine which two teams will make the NCAA tournament.
And maybe Wash U will finally pull themselves together and win the whole thing.
Team by Team
#1 Emory – 1 seed:
Chance of winning the whole thing: 95%
Best wins this season: Pomona-Pitzer, CMS, Amherst, Wesleyan, Tufts, CMU
Worst losses this season: Middlebury
What to expect: Emory recently showed vulnerability in a 3-6 loss to #3 Middlebury, and it seems like Daniela Lopez might be struggling with a righteous abdominal injury. Lopez is a total rock, and without her at full strength, the Eagles just seem weaker to me. Are they so much weaker that they’re vulnerable to Brandeis, CMU and Chicago? No. Gonzales-Rico is still undefeated in D3, the freshmen trio of Yoon, Fatemi and Cartledge have been absolutely lights out, and Olcay is struggling a little with the top teams but still putting in work and picking up Ws when her team needs her to. The only reason I didn’t give the Eagles a higher chance of winning was because I like to hedge. Back in 2012, the last time Emory didn’t win UAAs, Chicago came out and surprised everyone so you really never know what could happen. Everyone on Emory’s team could get sick or something.
#14 Brandeis – 2 seed:
Chance of winning the whole thing: 1.5%
Best wins this season: Bowdoin, Skidmore, NYU, Caltech
Worst losses this season: MIT, Middlebury, CMS, Tufts
What to expect: Brandeis is coming in HOT after a win against #6 Bowdoin, which opened a fresh can of belief in the Judges and convinced the coaches to give the Judges the 2 seed for the first time in a very long time (ever?). And this is all on top of an awesome season for the Judges where they pushed a strong MIT team to a 5-4 decision and have had big wins over teams like NYU and a hungry Skidmore. Brandeis has shown that they have what it takes to tango with the top 10 teams, and their main focus this weekend has to be beating Chicago in the semi-finals, with a matchup with Emory being icing on the cake. Taking the doubles lead will be crucial for Brandeis as they stack up against some tougher opponents, like Chicago and Emory. Especially against Chicago, if the Judges can come out ahead after doubles, and then double down at the bottom of the lineup where they are strongest, I see a clear path to a showdown with Emory. That being said, Khromchenko, Bertsch and He have to be so solid and confident if they want to lift the Judges over the Maroons. I have a feeling Chicago will play with a lot of fight this weekend and this match will go the distance.
#11 Chicago – 3 seed:
Chance of winning the whole thing: 1.5%
Best wins this season: MIT, Kenyon, Wash U, Denison, Case Western
Worst losses this season: CMS, Williams, Pomona-Pitzer
What to expect: Chicago started the season hot, before taking four straight losses to PP, CMS (x2) and Williams. However, they’ve bounced back and have gone undefeated since, with their closest match being a 6-3 win over Kenyon. They open UAAs against Wash U, who they easily took care of just two short weeks ago. I’m thinking they’ll cruise to the semis, where they’ll then face off against the toughest Brandeis team we’ve seen in years. These two teams haven’t played, so they’re marching into unchartered territory. Chicago is definitely strong at the top of the lineup, where Brandeis is slightly weaker, but Brandeis has absolute rocks in the middle of their lineup that I think will give Chicago trouble. As I mentioned above, this one will probably be a barn burner, and will likely come down to either the doubles lead or #6 singles. I’m guessing Chicago is hungry to prove their prowess going into NCAA selection time, so maybe they’ll pull off the win and set up a showdown against Emory in the finals.
#10 CMU – 4 seed:
Chance of winning the whole thing: 1.5%
Best wins this season: Mary Washington, Wash U, W&L, Sewanee
Worst losses this season: Pomona-Pitzer, Emory, Amherst, Wesleyan
What to expect: CMU’s job this weekend is to beat whoever they get in the 3rd place match. They got a little bit unlucky with that 4 seed but they can’t change that. The only thing they can do is beat either Chicago or Brandeis when they get the opportunity. Look for Coach Girard to pull people from the Emory match to keep them fresh as CMU will need to pounce on Saturday. For the first time in a long while for CMU, NCAAs is on the line.
#20 NYU – 5 seed:
Chances of winning the whole thing: <1%
Best wins this season: Swarthmore, CNU, TCNJ
Worst losses this season: Brandeis
What to expect: The seeding committee for UAAs clearly put a lot of weight on NYU’s early season win over the formerly high ranked Swarthmore, but this NYU team has proven their worth going 8-1 this spring. Anna Buraya has been on FIRE for NYU this season in both singles and doubles, and she’ll need to carry that momentum into UAAs if NYU wants to have a fighting chance to make some noise. I’m really looking forward to a potential 5th place matchup with Wash U. It’ll be a battle, as Wash U will be wanting to flex their strength and show the UAA committee who’s boss….whether they pull it out is to be seen, but I’ve got my popcorn and junior mints at the ready for some drama.
#15 Wash U – 6 seed:
Chances of winning the whole thing: <1%
Best wins this season: MIT, Denison, Case Western, UW-Whitewater
Worst losses this season: CMU, CMS, Swarthmore, Wesleyan, Kenyon, Amherst, Chicago
What to expect: The unexpected. #WashUgonnawinUAAs. While *at times* we’ve been shocked by Wash U this season, you’ve got to give them credit for playing a ton of matches this season. They’ve struggled a bit at the top of the lineup, and Persky needs to have a good weekend if Wash U wants to get that 5th place finish. A first round matchup with Chicago might not be the best confidence booster, but hopefully Wash U can find their groove against Case so they’re ready to face off against NYU. That will be Wash U’s match to lose. Hopefully for them they don’t.
#33 Case Western – 7 seed:
Chances of winning the whole thing: <1%
Best wins this season: Kalamazoo, Oberlin, John Carroll
Worst losses this season: Wash U, Hope, Wesleyan, Amherst, Kenyon, Swarthmore, Denison, Chicago
What to expect: Case is finishing up the end of a down year for them, as they ended last year ranked #15 in the country. They’ve already taken a 9-0 loss to Chicago and 6-3 loss to Wash U and at this point just want to avoid any bad losses. A first round matchup with non-Central Brandeis will be refreshing. Coincidentally, they beat Brandeis at UAAs last year — what a difference a year makes. If Brandeis has their way, Case will very likely have a rematch with Wash U on Friday. At their prior meeting, Case actually took #1 and #2 singles and #1 doubles, and all of the other matches were either 3 sets or very tight two setters. I think Wash U will be sharper this time since they have something to prove but I also think Case has a legitimate shot at that match.
UR Rochester – 8 seed:
Chances of winning the whole thing: <1%
Best wins this season: Oberlin, RIT, St. Lawrence
Worst losses this season: NYU, TCNJ, William Smith, Sewanee, Redlands
What to expect: Tbh I don’t really know what to expect from Rochester (I know I’m a bad NE writer for saying this, but calling all potential regional writers – we need your help!!). However, through some research, I’ve found that they’ve had a mixed season with some big wins over St. Lawrence and Oberlin, with tight losses to William Smith and TCNJ. With a first round match against Emory, I’m not sure there’s much hope for the Yellow Jackets, but hey a girl can dream. I’m sad to say that Rochester will likely go down quite quickly to the Eagles (after all, they are the best team in the country right now – up for debate, obvs), but when they go down, they’ll go down swinging.
BIG MATCHES
#2 Brandeis vs #3 Chicago: This semifinal is going to be the marquee matchup of the tournament, with the winner securing their Pool C spot into the NCAA tournament. Brandeis is the favorite in terms of seed but Chicago still has the higher ranking. As mentioned above, Chicago has the advantage at the top of the lineup while Brandeis has more mid-lineup consistency. I think NEW and I differ here because I think Chicago will pull this one out, but I have no reasons to back that claim. It will be dramatic.
#4 CMU vs #2 Brandeis/#4 CMU vs #3 Chicago: This third place match is sudden death for Pool C. What makes this even better is that both teams will be coming off of losses the day before, and anything can happen on the last day of the three day tournament where everyone kind of just wants to go home and study for finals. It will come down to who wants it more/has more discipline to focus in doubles. I actually think CMU will have an advantage against either opponent since they will most likely take a pretty quick loss to Emory and save their legs. I also am biased as the ASouth writer but I think that this is the first time in a looong time that CMU has had their backs to the wall and they’re going to want it badly.
#6 Wash U vs #5 NYU (5th place match): I know NYU got the nod over Wash U in the seeding, but I have a feeling Wash U will pull this one out with relative ease. Similar to the Brandeis/Chicago match, Wash U has the higher ranking and has far more matches under their belt this season, especially compared to the relatively untested NYU team. However, NYU is definitely a dark horse to me, and they’ve been playing some great tennis as of late. I think the key here for either team is doubles and the top of the lineup.
Players to Watch
Keren Khromchenko (Brandeis): This former POTW has had a fire season, but if she wants to help the Judges to a stellar conference tournament, she’s going to have to play hard and play tough. As mentioned above, she is the start of the central core of the Brandeis team that needs to be rock solid if the Judges are going to triumph over Chicago and at least give Emory a bit of a hard time.
Marjorie Antohi and Catherine Xu (Chicago): Chicagos #1 and #2 have to bring the fire this weekend. Actually I really should have just listed all of Chicago’s lineup. Thus far they have been solid throughout but against the tough teams they can’t rely on their depth to get 5 matches. Both Antohi and Xu have had bright spots on their season but I want them to convince us that they’re a top caliber 1 and 2 this weekend.
Vinaya Rao (CMU): To me, Rao is something of a weathervane for CMU tennis. She randomly takes 0 and 1 losses but has the goods to get wins over the best teams in the country. She’s had some struggles at #3 singles but all will be forgiven if she can hang tough this weekend and pull out matches against the likes of Chicago or Brandeis. Something tells me if she has a good weekend, the Tartans will have a good weekend.
Keys to the Weekend
DOUBLES: Omg doubles. Especially in matches played to decision, which will be the format this year. In many of these close matches, there is very little margin for error, and even letting one doubles court slip away from you could be the difference between winning and losing. I get it — sometimes you are still digesting breakfast and the snacks you ate during the warmup and before you know it you’re down 1-4. It happens. But don’t let it happen to you this weekend.
Fitness: This might not be as much of an issue since the matches will only be played to decision, but Orlando is hot and humid and cramps happen. This is especially important for the teams who play their big matches on the last day (looking at you Wash U, NYU, CMU). Fitness is one of the only things you can control, though it’s a little late now, and it’s a huge shame to lose a match because you cramped or pooped out.
The Banquet: The obvious one. It’s scientifically proven that people who dance at the banquet win all their matches. Just don’t dance until you cramp. If you’re a cramper, take videos on the sidelines and send them to me. d3asouthwomens@gmail.com
OK, that’s it for now. Thanks NEW for chiming in!
ASW