D3AtlanticSouth keeps thinking he’s far and away the best at writing Pool C and bracketology articles, so I’m here to rep the women’s side of the blog and show him how much better we are. Plus it’s been like a month and the season’s almost over so you deserve it. Over on the men’s side it’s pretty clear who the top 10 teams are, but over here it feels like the #25 team can beat the #7-10 teams on any given day. This season has been flat-out CRAY so I’m going to update my Pool C article from last month and see how much drama there will be around NCAAs as we get ready for the postseason.
As a reminder, the teams that win their conference tournaments get automatic bids into NCAAs, and are classified as “Pool A”. What I want to focus on here are the teams that can earn an at-large bid into the tournament via “Pool C”. As of last night, we found out that there are actually only SEVEN spots for Pool C, not 8 like we had last year. This changes things a bit, but like last time I’m assuming that Emory wins the UAA and CMS wins the SCIAC. I’ve given the NESCAC to Midd in this analysis, but Wes came very close to beating them earlier this year. Either way both teams are getting in so it’s not an issue. Let’s dive in.
The Locks
Wesleyan, Pomona-Pitzer, Amherst, Bowdoin
Eudice’s graduation made me worry a bit about where Wes would shake out this year, but they’ve had a fantastic season with their only losses to Emory and Midd. They’ve got wins over Tufts, Bowdoin, Williams, and CMU and will no doubt get their own region come NCAAs. The Hens have also been ballin’ with a very similar resume: Losses to Emory/Midd/CMS and wins over Williams, Tufts, CMU, and Chicago. That’s more than enough to get in.
With their Senior Day win over Tufts the Mammoths can book their tickets to NCAAs. They’ve got wins over Williams (2x), CMU, and Skid as well, so even if they lose in the first round of NESCACs the committee should look at their body of work and see they’re stronger than the “Contender” and “Bubble” teams.
Bowdoin’s in a similar position – wins over Tufts and Amherst give the Polar Bears enough credence to say they’re a top 10 team in the country. Some of you might say “Hey wait, didn’t they lose to Skidmore?” Yea, but that was back in the fall and as you can see from ASW’s article here, the committee’s criteria prioritizes strength of schedule, results vs. common opponents, and late season play. Under those criteria Bowdoin looks really strong. I will note that they also lost to Brandeis and that’s made the UAA championships wayyyy more important.
The Contenders
Williams, Tufts
You could make the argument that Tufts should be a lock at this point with their wins over Williams and Brandeis, and you might be right. Their remaining schedule is MIT and NESCACs, and if they (i) lose in the 4/5 match, (ii) Williams has a great tourney, and (iii) CMU and Chicago/Brandeis both have great UAAs (in other words, Emory doesn’t show up) it’s possible they don’t get in. Super duper unlikely, but in this crazy season anything’s possible.
Williams is a bit of a different story. They’ve had their worst season that I can remember, with a losing record and their only real wins against Skidmore and Chicago. It’s hard to understate the importance of that Chicago win; without it Williams doesn’t have a Pool C resume AT ALL. If they beat Bowdoin this weekend, that’s enough to get them in. Either way, the Maroons are now the Ephs best friends this weekend at UAAs so maybe they should give them some twitter love.
On the Bubble
Brandeis, Chicago, CMU, NYU, Wash U
5 teams, only ONE SPOT. It’s probably only 3 by the time I post this article, as it all comes down to UAAs and who finishes in 2nd. As ASW mentioned in her other article this week (sooooo much content!), Deis is coming in EN FUEGO after a win over Bowdoin and earning the conference’s the #2 seed. The most likely scenario is Brandeis, Chicago, and CMU finishing in some order 2-3-4, where the UAA runner-up gets the final spot and CMU is really upset they drew Emory in the semis. Since that’s not as exciting, let’s go through some of the nutty scenarios that could happen at UAAs this weekend (that also might be irrelevant by posting)
Wash U needs to place 2nd at UAAs to have a realistic chance, and even that might not be enough since CMU beat the Bears earlier this year and have better strength of schedule and results vs. common opponents. They can still play spoiler in a big way and knock off Chicago with an upset. The Maroons would NEED to win the back draw in that scenario, and then hope someone like Kenyon / Hopkins doesn’t lose their conference final and complicate things even more. I really don’t want to sit on the selection committee if UAAs go Emory-Wash U-Brandeis-CMU-Chicago, but if that happens can I please be on that conference call?
Now that you’re done reading this article, tune into UAAs NOW by following @D3ASouthWomens and @uaatennis on twitter.
good try see u next year bruh