Happy Thursday, boys and girls. After a brief hiatus for NEW POWER RANKINGS, we’re back on the season preview train for the foreseeable future. Amherst got the preview treatment to start off the winter, so it seems only right that Williams should be my next. Since they won the title in 2013, the Ephs have been a perennial fringe contender. A team who has the pedigree and coaching to be able to win another title, but hadn’t put together a serious threat…until last year. Last spring, Williams tied for the regular season NESCAC crown with the recent conference heavyweights, Midd and Bowdoin, as the three teams all managed to beat each other. With Brian Grodecki at the helm this team looked like a tier-1 national championship contender, and I believe D3AS even picked them to win it all. However, 2019 brings a new-look Ephs team. While we make a lot of Bowdoin’s recent graduates, the Ephs were hit nearly as hard, meaning we once again won’t know what exactly the spring should bring for our Williamstown faithful. They still have lots of talent, even if they only have one starting senior, they still have great coaching, witness the return of the Felix (oh my God), they still had a great recruiting class, even if none were outstanding this fall, so yes, they are still a real threat. However, given how many Ephs missed time this fall, we won’t really know whether Williams is a top-5 contender or a top-12 pretender until mid-March (at the very earliest).
LOCATION: Williamstown, Massachusetts
COACH: Dan Greenberg (10th season)
ASSISTANT COACH: FELIX SUN A.K.A THE MAGICIAN A.K.A. A.K.A THE SMILING SADIST IS BAAAAAAACK
TWITTER HANDLE: @EphsTennis
ITA NATIONAL RANKING: Somehow still TBD
ITA REGIONAL RANKING: See above
BLOG POWER RANKING: 9
2017-2018 FINISH: No. 2 in the NESCAC during the regular season, lost to Midd in the NESCAC semis, hosted an NCAA Regional, overcame a doubles deficit to defeat arch-rival Amherst in the Sweet 16 5-2, went into the NCAA Quarters in a 50/50 match against Emory, but got swept in doubles and lost 5-0.
TWEET-LENGTH REVIEW OF THE FALL: No Lil Rag, little Lil Barr, Kam’s the real deal, freshmen have talent but will need to step up, Williams is at a cross-roads.
STOCK WATCH: Considering how high we were on Williams heading into NCAAs last year, the arrow has to be pointing down.
KEY ADDITIONS: Peter Frelinghuysen (4-star from NY), Kirun Cheung (3-star from CA), Michael Medvedev (3-star from NY). #11 recruiting class in DIII this year.
KEY DEPARTURES: Brian Grodecki (#1 singles/#1 doubles), Sachin Raghavan (#3 singles), Jodran Sadowsky (#6/7 singles/#3 doubles). The #9 recruiting class in DIII in 2014 turned out to be far more impactful than that.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: Felix works his magic, and the singles guys continue to improve. Taylor and Frelinghuysen develop into at top #1 team, leaving the vets to bring home wins when needed towards the bottom of the doubles lineup. Kam is a stud atop the lineup, and Lil Barr goes almost undefeated at #2. Williams beats PP easy, and beats either CMS or Chicago while losing 5-4 to the other. The Ephs cruise through the early part of their NESCAC schedule, and develop their depth through the season to knock off both Midd and Bowdoin, earning the #2 seed for NESCACs. Williams avenges their regular season loss to Amherst, winning NESCACs and earning a top-3 overall seed for NCAAs.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: Williams struggles a bit at the very top and bottom of their singles lineup, and goes through some doubles growing pains. The Ephs lose a heartbreaker to PP and end up leaving California in rough Pool-C shape after getting blown out by CMS and Chicago. The squad rebounds to start NESCAC season, but ends up getting waxed by Bowdoin/Midd/Amherst, and going 1-2 against Wesleyan/Tufts/Bates, earning the No. 6 seed at NESCACs, and getting ROPED by their nemesis Amherst in the conference quarterfinal. Williams doesn’t even sniff a Pool-C spot and ends the year barely ranked in the top-15.
BOLD PREDICTION: For the first time in a long time, Williams will struggle a bit in doubles. This team has played strong doubles since before their NCAA title run, but the losses of Grodecki and Sadowsky will hurt a team that was already struggling to find its doubles identity. BG has been atop the doubles rankings for a while, but splitting him and Taylor up didn’t seem to yield all the wins we expected. Taylor should play atop the doubles lineup this spring, but it could be with a variety of partners (his best result came with Frelinghuysen this fall, but he also played some with Lil Barr). Williams might end up switching partners through the season more often than in years past, which is never the sign of a team experiencing doubles success. Look for some combo of Taylor, Lil Barr, Frelinghuysen, Kam, to play doubles this spring and guys like Lil Rag and Chung are also likely to get an early look. Who knows, maybe we see Captain Deepak back in there too!
NOT-SO-BOLD PREDICTION: Arturo Kam has the best year of any Eph. Turo went to work this summer racking up ITA points and showing that he was more than just a supremely talented #6 player. This fall, he was seeded in multiple tournaments, and backed it up (more on that in the lineup section), so it’s not that bold to say the kid is in for a big year. Lil’ Barr should still be top of the lineup, but whichever of the two plays #2 singles should rack up wins this year for the Ephs. Kam earned his first ever ranking after the fall, and is coming in at #22 nationally & #7 regionally. I’m expecting what has already been a studly sophomore year to continue in the spring.
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you caveman, you good? Austin Barr, sophomore, UTR=12.63 , range: 1-2. Austin came on STRONG last year and was one of the best #2’s in the region and probably the country. He was the first #2 out of NCAAs, and in total transparency I was surprised he didnt make the tournament when all of his regional counterparts (Finkelman, Tercek and Farrell) did. We missed Lil Barr at the ITA this fall, where he likely would have been somewhere around the #4/5 seed, but we did get our first real glimpse of him at the Tufts/Brandeis Invite, where he was given the No. 6 seed and lost to Stanley Morris (projected Midd #3-5) in the 1st round. He then lost a pro-set to Oscar Yang (projected Bowdoin #3-5) in the 1st round of the backdraw. The sophomore paried with Kam to act as Williams’ top doubles team at that tournament, but also lost in the first round. All in all, it was good to see Austin out on the court, but given that we didnt see him earlier in the fall, and the disappointing nature of those results, I’m going to venture a guess and say Lil Barr was working back from an injury. If that is the case, let’s hope he’s rehabbing well and will be good to go to start the year. If not, then the guy next on the list will likely be your top-Eph in March…
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the flow is strong with this one Arturo Kam, sophomore, UTR =12.66 , range: 1-3. Nice little leap for a guy who was a surprise to be in the lineup period at the start of the 2018 spring. Granted, he was the best #6 in the country, and we’ve seen people make that exact same leap in recent years (what up Grant Urken), but even so Kam’s ascendancy is impressive. You just read my “not-so-bold” prediction that Kam’s excellent summer/fall parlays into a beautiful spring, but I do still have him at #2 slotted behind Lil Barr. He made the semis of the ITA, beating Quijano (projected Bates #1-3), Das (projected Deis #2-5), and Cuba (projected Midd #1) before falling to Jerry Jiang (projected Bowdoin #2). The buzz was hushed a bit with a first round loss to Cauneac (projected MIT #1-2) at Tufts/Brandeis, but we all know how good the MIT senior is at his best. I would not be surprised if he ends up playing some #1 singles this year, and given how many top regional guys graduated last year, there’s a very real chance that both Kam and Lil Barr could qualify for Individuals this spring.
- Deepak Indrakanti, senior UTR=12.13 , range: 3-5. Deep was out of commission for a lot of his junior year, but he played when it mattered most at the end of the year and performed well, beating Amherst twice in the span of just a couple weeks including a 1&1 raking at NESCACs. If he’s fully healthy this year, Deepak brings something to the table that nobody else here does, a full career of experience! He’s the only senior that is likely to play this year, and is also the team’s lone captain. Indrakanti lost 1st round at ITAs to Midd’s best freshman, and then lost in the 1st round at Tufts/Brandeis to Wesleyan’s best freshman. Not a great fall, and personally I think he’s better suited to rack up the wins at #4 or even #5 singles. I would guess that Lil Raghavan will play higher than him later in the year, but for the start this spot is going to be a bit of a struggle, so give me the guy who can weather the storm.
- Ananth Raghavan, junior, UTR=12.48 , range: 2-5. My vote for most improved last year, Ananth Raghavan proved he was more than just the younger of the Raghavani or Lil’ Rag. Nanth didn’t play at all this fall, and the fact that ITA still doesnt have the dual matches from last year entered into the new system make this somewhat difficult, but here’s what I have from memory…he started the year well in California, beating Chicago and PP, beat Schlanger in 3 sets, smoked Jerry Jiang (projected Bowdoin #2), and beat Bessette (projected Amherst #3) in a super when he played #3 last year. Those are some damn good results. Now, there is always the question of what happens when somebody isn’t playing tennis everyday for the fall season, but given the kid’s improvement last year even if he just stays the same he should be killer in the middle of this lineup. He should play ahead of Indrakanti and Taylor, but i’m slotting him at #4 for early rust.
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A-Tay Alex Taylor, junior, UTR=11.84 , range: 3-7. A-Tay has been a bit of a singles enigma through his first couple years, but the dude brings it on the doubles court. Now an upperclassman, and without some of the depth the Ephs have relied on in previous years, he will likely be needed to hold his singles spot this spring. He has the game to play higher than this in the lineup, and did take down Jayson Fung (projected Ameherst #3-7) in the 2nd round of the ITA before falling to Cuba (projected Midd #1). Alex also won his 1st round match at the Tufts/Brandeis Invite, but then got beaten badly by #Fink (projected Wes #1-2) in the 2nd round. For Williams to be the best version of itself this spring, Taylor’s big game is taking names in the middle of the Ephs lineup.
- Calvin Chung, sophomore UTR=11.55 , range: 5-7. It is here where we leave the firm foundation of stats and journey together through the murky marshes of blogger conjecture into the thickets of wildest guesswork…or something like that. Chung played doubles all of last year, and was solid with Taylor at #2, but never made an impact on the singles lineup. This fall, he had a great Tufts/Brandeis Invite, beating Rozovsky (projected Bowdoin #6-7), Foulkes (projected Amherst #5-7), and Turchetta (projected Amherst #6-7), before falling to Zhao (projected Bowdoin #4-7) 12-10 in a super in the Finals. Calvin lost to Yang (projected Bowdoin #3-5) in two close sets in the 1st round of the ITA, and won a round of doubles with Kam before losing to Cuba/Eazor (projected Midd #1-2 team) in the 2nd round. All in all, a good fall for young Calvin who should be the favorite to start in both facets of the lineup this spring.
IN THE HUNT: Noah Reich (sophomore, UTR=11.08, range: 5-7), Peter Frelinghuysen (freshman, UTR=11.17, range: 5-7, but likely a doubles guy) & Benjamin Lebowitz (junior, UTR=10.62, range: 6-7, but more likely to contribute in the doubles lineup). These are guys without proven track records at this point. For what it’s worth, Noah was seeded in the B-Flight of the Tufts/Brandeis Invite, Peter has played solid doubles all fall, and Leb-O is the only one with any actual lineup experience, playing in the doubles lineup for a good portion of his freshman year. Ben was nowhere to be found this fall, but given that he’s a junior it’s likely that he’s abroad. I believe Peter will start in the doubles lineup, but look for Ben to be a possibility as well. As for singles, I’d guess Reich is the best bet to step in, and is also probably battling with Chung for that final spot.
As has become the custom, the Ephs start playing matches out in Southern California on their spring break in the middle of March. They get a few good warm-up matches against non-DIII competition in Harvard and Point Loma before running the annual gauntlet of contenders such as Pomona-Pitzer, CMS and Chicago. While that’s a lot riding on the first week of matches, I love how this break is structured. Early matches against solid competition that don’t matter. Playing PP once they’re warmed up but before they’ve burnt out, as even though their sights are set higher the match against the Sage Hens is the only one that’s a MUST win. Five days in between PP and CMS with only Caltech in the middle, who should be able to push the Ephs just enough to stop them from getting sloppy. Then they play Hope the day after CMS, which can be a rest day for whomever needs it, before matching up with Chicago at CMS to end their week in what should have massive NCAA seeding implications, and offer a rebound opportunity for either the NESCAC and the UAA, depending on which conference leaves Florida with the upper hand.
After spring break the Ephs head home to start their conference schedule. It starts off with Trinity and Conn, the two easiest matches on Williams’ NESCAC schedule and ramps up with a home match against Tufts. I know some are high on the Jumbos given Sorkin’s fall, but I need to see it from the middle of the lineup before I believe they will beat Williams in Williamstown. A massive road-trip weekend in the middle of April takes the Ephs to Wesleyan and Middlebury on back to back days, which is not a fun drive after playing what should be a long match at Wes. The following weekend is a quick drive to Amherst, and then Williams hosts the Maine duo of Bowdoin and Bates for what should be senior day to cap off the regular season. NESCACs are the following weekend at Middlebury, and it would likely be the biggest surprise of the year if the Ephs failed to qualify for the conference tournament.
Overall, this is a solid schedule. Nothing too special, but nothing outrageous either. The Ephs should ride their 2017-2018 success to a top-5 or top-6 ranking when the ITA, meaning that even if they lose to CMS, Chicago, and Amherst (who they went a combined 3-1 against last year), if they beat PP and Wesleyan they should still hold a top-8 ranking and likely make NCAAs in what would almost certainly be a decision that caused D3AS to blow a gasket. 2020 should be an even better year for Williams, but don’t sleep on the Ephs in 2019, they have what it takes.