Happy preview season, boys and girls! Yes, it’s that time again, when it gets dark early, the air gets chilly, and you have no DIII tennis news for a couple very long months. Luckily, we here at the Blog do our best to break up the monotony with the excitement of season previews…I couldn’t even keep a straight face this long. Dearest reader, season previews are a grind for us as it’s the same type of article for two months straight. Some of us bloggers have trouble keeping their offseason interest, some of us have no sense of punctuality, and some of us can’t help but write long strands of rambling text that have little to no effect on the upcoming season. So…who wants to donate?! Anywho, our end of the fall POWER RANKINGS will be up soon (if anybody has seen D3AS, please tell him we’re not mad, we’re just disappointed), and although we usually wait for those to begin our season previews, I’m here to give you a taste of what’s to come. We’re kicking things off with a team that people can (and do) talk about in extremely different tones, depending on their point of view. You can very easily swing the needle of the narrative towards either the negative or positive pole, depending on whether you are diving into the past or gazing into the future. You know my penchant for a flavorful and robust Kool-Aid, but the 2018 brand is quite strong. Right now all I want is some of that purple stuff. Brace yourselves…
LOCATION: Amherst, Massachusetts
COACH: Todd Doebler (5th season)
ASSISTANT COACH: Officially none. Noah Sprinkel appears to have moved onto DI, but they might have brought John Taft (previously a grad assistant at Smith) on board…
TWITTER HANDLE: @AmherstMTennis
ITA NATIONAL RANKING: TBD (hopefully updated on 11/14)
ITA REGIONAL RANKING: TBD (hopefully updated on 11/14)
BLOG POWER RANKING: 6th (I assure you, they’re coming soon)
2017-2018 FINISH: 4th in the NESCAC regular season, 1st round loss at NESCACs to Wesleyan, made NCAA’s with one of the final Pool-C spots, lost to Williams 5-2 in the Sweet 16.
TWEET LENGTH REVIEW OF THE FALL: Wei and Ma could be a lethal combo at the top of the lineup. Bessette and Fung showed flashes, and the competition between the young guns at the bottom of the lineup will be fierce. If the chemistry holds, Amherst will be more than just dangerous in 2019.
STOCK WATCH: I can’t believe I’m about to say this given what Amherst has done over the past couple seasons, but the Mammoths are trending up and possibly in a big way.
KEY ADDITIONS: Harris Foulkes (4-star from Massachusetts), Damien Ruparel (4-star from New Jersey), Will Turchetta (4-star from New York).
KEY DEPARTURES: Ethan Hillis (transferred to Wash U), Nathan Kaplan (left the team)
BEST CASE SCENARIO: The freshman contribute in all three facets of the game: singles, doubles, and team chemistry. The seniors lead with vigor, and the Mammoths play the season with the “nobody believes in us” chip on their shoulder. Herst runs through their spring break and play CMS to a close 5-4 decision either way. They beat Williams and Wesleyan with some ease, AND then knock off Middlebury by using their depth to eke out a 5-4 win and claim the NESCAC regular season crown. The Mammoths go into NCAAs as a top-3 team in the country and are considered a legitimate title favorite for the first time since 2014.
WORST CASE SCENARIO: The wear and tear of chemistry issues continue to take their toll. There are more than just rumors of discontent as multiple players quit the team and one even transfers before the spring semester begins. Their inexperience is showcased when they lose close matches to Wash U and CMU, which then fuels even more discord. Amherst gets upset by Tufts, but still makes NESCACs as the No. 6 seed, where they get trounced 5-0 by their arch-rival Williams in the conference quarterfinals ending their season.
BOLD PREDICTION: Amherst will end the season as a top-3 team in the NESCAC and host their own Regional at NCAAs.
NOT-SO-BOLD PREDICTION: One of Amherst’s freshman will end up being better than originally predicted and become close to a lock near the bottom of the lineup. All three had really solid falls, with each showing their talent at different points of the short season. It would be only mildly bold if I picked which freshman was going to explode (odds-on favorite is Foulkes), but saying one of the three will be great this year is not bold at all. There’s a great chance that two of the three will be starting for most of the year, and my guess is that we’ll see all three in the starting lineup as Coach Doebler figures out the bottom of his lineup this spring.
4 RANDOM THOUGHTS:
Doubles will make or break the Mammoths this spring. Amherst has a couple of VERY talented doubles players in Bessette and Fung, but they’ll need Ma and Wei to develop their doubles at least a little bit this year. If any of the three freshman has the doubles chops, that could swing this team from a top-10 to a top-5, because you do not want to play this singles lineup facing a 2-1 deficit.- Will these freshman buy in? We’ve seen some OUTRAGEOUSLY talented classes come into Herst over the past couple years, with almost none of them developing. They lost Burney/Owens/Marchalik two years ago, and then lost Hillis and Kaplan last year. Imagine if this team had just one of those guys now, let alone multiple? The fact that we’re talking about this team as an NCAA contender when they lost 5 starters due to circumstances other than graduation over the past two years is a testament to Coach Doebler’s recruiting classes.
- This freshman class has the potential to be something great. This is kind of like 2b, but I wanted to stress just how good this crop of three guys could be. We saw what happened to Bowdoin with the emergence of Wolfe/Tercek/Roddy playing 3/5/6 their freshmen year. If Coach Doebler gets all three of his young guys significant playing time this year, it could thrust Amherst back towards the pinnacle of the sport, where they haven’t been since Coach Garner left.
- Who is leading this team? Last year Amherst had five captains, which is nice symbolically, but patently unrealistic. This year, there are five seniors, but only Bessette is likely to start. Can those other seniors stay focused and help take this team to the next level, or will they follow the paths of most non-starting seniors, and focus on their final year at college. I don’t mean to scold that path, it’s very natural to try and make the most of your last few months at school; but, uncommon leadership is exactly what this team needs in order to finally accomplish what they’ve been seeking over the past few years, a cohesive unit.
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Swag Sean Wei, sophomore, UTR=12.52, range=1-2. Sean Wei has swag. The top Mammoth was not only one of the top freshmen in the country last year, he was one of the best players in the country! At one point he was as high as #2 in the Northeast and he had wins over almost all of the other top #1’s in the region. This fall was a bit of a roller coaster for the sophomore, but in the end the results still speak for themselves. He made the semis of the ITA, where he lost to the eventual champ in Sorkin, beating Xiao (projected Midd #3-5), Yang (projected Bowdoin #3-5) and Big Barr (projected MIT #1-2) along the way. He also took the 1st set from Sorkin 6-1. Sean closed his fall by making the finals of the A-flight at the Tufts/Brandeis Invite, beating Xiao again, then Coramutla (projected Deis #2-5), Finkelman (projected Wes #1), and Anker (projected Wes #2-3). The only thing stopping him from having an OUTSTANDING fall was a pesky 1st round loss at the Wallach to Justin Wang (Bowdoin projected #3-6). Overall, even if Wei doesnt improve and plays at the level from last year, he will be a top-5 player in the region and possibly a top-10 player in the country.
- Kevin Ma, sophomore, UTR=12.35, range=1-2. K-Ma didnt start his career as quickly as his classmate Wei, but his rate of improvement since last winter is astounding. He played near the bottom of the lineup to start last spring, making the most of his opportunity last spring and ended up being a very good #2 at the end of the year. Ma continued along that track this fall, making the Quarters at ITAs, with wins over Pathi (projected Colby #2) and Eazor (projected Midd #3-4), before pushing Jerry Jiang (projected Bowdoin #2) to 6-4 in the 3rd set. He made the Finals of the A-Flight at Wallach with easy wins over Coramutla, Wynne (projected Skidmore #1-2), and Yang before losing to Altmeyer (projected Colby #1) in a superbreaker. Like Wei, Ma had a hiccup this fall, in a 1st round loss at the Tufts/Brandeis Invite, losing to Tzeng (projected Brandeis #1-4) in the 1st round. Ma also didnt play much doubles this fall, but was solid when he did. If he ends up in the doubles lineup, it will likely be towards the bottom.
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oh captain, my captain Zach Bessette, senior, UTR=11.80, range=3-5. Now we get to the leadership section of the lineup. Yes, Zach Bessette was once named the player to watch or freshman of the year something like that, but that was a long time ago, and ZB has been through a lot with this team since then. Now, it’s his team. For better or for worse, much of the responsibility of the captaincy will fall to him, even though he’s one of five seniors, as he’s possibly the only starter. Bessette lost to Tzeng at the 1st round of ITAs, won the B-Flight singles draw and made the A-Flight doubles final at the Wallach, and made another A-Flight doubles final at Tufts/Brandeis. He has played at the top and near the bottom of the lineup through his career, and the Mammoths need him to be a rock, especially in the doubles lineup, in order for them to succeed this spring.
- Jayson Fung, junior, UTR=11.53, range=3-7. Like Bessette, Fung has always excelled in the doubles side of the game. He played his highest singles as a freshman, but settled into a middle/bottom of the lineup guy over the past year. Part of my kool-aid plan involves a resurgent Fung, and the fall showed us that might not be too far away. Semis of the B-Flight at Wallach, semis of A-doubles at Tufts/Brandeis, and perhaps most importantly the semis of the A-Flight singles at Tufts/Brandeis, where he dispatched Das (projected Brandeis #1-4) and Cauneac (projected MIT #1-2) before falling to eventual champion Noah Farrell (projected Midd #2) in the semis. Coach Doebler will rely on Fung to carry what will most likely be a freshman doubles partner, but if Jayson can start taking names in the middle of the singles lineup as well, this team becomes scary good.
- Harris Foulkes, freshman, UTR=11.66, range=4-7. And now we get to the guessing game. Foulkes, Ruparel and Turchetta are the three Amherst freshmen and you could make a good case for any of them to be at this spot. I’m going with Foulkes because at the very least Coach Doebler seemed to have him above the others constantly through the fall. He played higher in the dual matches, he got a singles spot at the ITA, and was seeded at Tufts/Brandeis Invite. However, while he has some solid results, beating Lillenthal (projected Wesleyan #2-4) at the ITA, making the C-flight semis at Wallach, earning the No. 2 seed and making the quarters at Tufts/Brandeis, the other freshmen had equally strong falls. For now, young Harris gets the nod, but his hold on this spot and a singles lineup spot in general is precarious at best.
- Damien Ruparel, freshman, UTR=11.37, range=5-7. This spot was even tougher, and you can basically flip a coin between Ruparel and Turchetta at this point. Ruparel was in the C-Flight at the Wallach and made the semis, but Turchetta won the entire D-Flight (beating Levitin in the process). Both guys made the B-Flight semis at Tufts/Brandeis, with Ruparel beating Tyler Ng (projected Brandeis #3-6), No. 1 seed Ali Mooraj (projected Wesleyan #5-7), and Evan Fortier (projected Bowdoin #6-7). He lost to the eventual champ in Zhao (projected Bowdoin #5-7) in a tight super. Ruparel also ran through his Hobart opponent, while Turchetta got a win, but struggled doing so. He has the slim edge, but my guess is that whomever works harder in the offseason will get this spot to start the year.
IN THE HUNT: Will Turchetta (freshman, UTR=11.44, range=5-7), Jesse Levitin (senior, UTR=11.33, range=5-7). This is a shorter section than usual because I fully believe both lineups will end up being comprised of some combo of these eight guys. It’s possible we see seniors like Kendall or Heidenberg in the doubles lineup if things aren’t working, but I think these eight guys are where it’s at for Amherst. As I said above, Turchetta and Ruparel are neck in neck for the 6th spot right now, with Levitin bringing the experience edge, having played a good amount of singles matches these past two years. While he’s behind the young guns for now, Jesse has won big matches for Amherst in the past and if somebody gets hurt is exactly the type of guy you want to fill in at your anchor spot if need be.
The Mammoths open in Florida on their spring break, though it seems it will hardly be relaxing week in the sun. It’s not quite the Amherst trips of old where they would play 12 matches in five days between their A and B squads, but they have Kenyon, CMU, Wash U and Case Western scheduled for a five day period. Theoretically, Amherst should be able to get past Kenyon and Case without breaking too much of a sweat, but those are likely top-15 teams we’re talking about, so a bad day could certainly end with Amherst taking an L. The meat of this break is really the UAA matches with CMU and Wash U in the middle of the week. It will be SMACK in the middle of CMU’s crucial stretch against Case, Wash U and Wesleyan as well, so give a slight fitness edge to Herst who plays that match slightly earlier in their week. If Amherst can leave Florida unscathed, they will have basically punched their ticket to NCAAs in the first week of their season, and given the NESCAC a HUGE leg up on the UAA for Pool-C bids (though Wesleyan will have perform well in Florida as well to maintain that conference edge).
After spring break, Amherst heads home, but gets a fascinating match with CMS the following weekend. The Stags are trying to toughen up a bit, plus maybe see weather other than 72 and partly cloudy, on their east coast trip, and this could well be a match between two undefeated teams at this point in the season, both trying to prove they belong in that elusive top tier of title contender. On paper CMS has the edge here as the Stags are even stronger at the top of the lineup than Herst; however, if this match is played indoors (very likely considering it’s March in New England), then the needle starts to move back towards the middle and we could be in for a barnburner.
Amherst begins conference play at the end of March and as of this moment has just six NESCAC matches on the docket, taking on Tufts, Colby, Trinity Ct, Williams, Wesleyan and Middlebury. It seems very odd that there is no Bowdoin nor Bates on the schedule at this point, but perhaps the scheduling quirk is real, meaning Amherst should be able to relax a bit until late April when they host Williams, travel to Wesleyan and Middlebury to end their regular season. As of this exact second, I’d favor Amherst over both Williams and Wesleyan, but that will likely mean nothing come April. All in all, this is a good schedule for the Mammoths who get their shot against Pool-C teams at the start of the year, but get to play CMS on their turf for a change, and then have as light a NESCAC schedule as you can possibly have in this day and age.