NCAA Regional Preview: Chicago Region
AS: And we are back for another preview of another Men’s region! NewD3Central, RegNEC and I all contributed to this one, which features our highest #2 seed by Power Ranking and a championship contender in the always scary Maroons. You know the drill. Let’s go to the tape.
No. 4 CHICAGO
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 80.99%
Power 6 Rating: 74
How they got here: They capped a good year with their first ever UAA tournament championship where they defeated a Jemison-less Emory team 7-2. This Chicago team got here with an ever-rotating lineup buoyed by immense talents up and down the roster. All year, different ‘roons were called upon to get their point and for the most part they did. Chicago arrives to the tournament this year with more hype than ever – the hosts find themselves with a top 6 seed and a big opportunity.
Why they can win: Chicago seems to be at full strength now: they return D Liu to the lineup (5 singles and 3 doubles), they qualified Chua, Kerrigan, Yuan, and Raclin to nationals (travesty Tsai isn’t in the bracket), and they can now utilize my season preview doubles lineup of six all-american doubles teams: Kumar/Kerrigan, Yuan/Raclin, and Chua/Liu. Chicago can win not only this regional, but the whole tournament, because they’re as talented as any team in the bracket and now they have oodles of postseason experience to rely on. They have a murder’s row of singles players and the doubles pairings to make them even more treacherous – Chicago could do it because they have the ability to win on all nine courts against every other team in the country.
How they can be beaten: For all my hype on their talent and ability, Chicago didn’t go undefeated this year, they’ve shown weaknesses, and they still haven’t figured out Gustavus (thankfully they probably won’t have to). Chicago went down after doubles in all three of their losses this year, so if they go behind after doubles then things could get hairy for the Maroons. Also D Liu hasn’t played all year, while he’s an All-American it’s still been a minute since he’s played and the NCAA tournament is a tough place to shake off rust…we’re not Serena Williams out here. Chicago could lose if they go behind after doubles and experience lapses in the singles lineup resulting in multiple three-set losses…it’s not unheard of.
Player to watch:
David Liu, #TheReturn.
Erik Kerrigan: Chicago’s True Number One? – we’ll see.
Jeremy Yuan: Yuan Freshman to Rule Them All.
newCentral’s way too hot take: Yuan will go undefeated in tournament play.
CMU
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 19%
Power 6 Rating: 71
How they got here: They beat Wesleyan and Wash U and secured their Pool C ticket. CMU had a stellar year given their circumstances, and they are the proud owners of the final Pool C spot this year. The Tartans rode strong wins on Spring Break throughout the year and continued to add to their resume with some solid regional and central wins.
Why they can win: Daniel Levine. I’m the biggest fan of Levine there possibly can be out there, and he’s the key to the CMU season. The Tartans beat you at the top of the lineup, and that starts with the GOAT Levine. They rarely win matches where they don’t win the top 3 singles positions, but Shekar and Levin have played well as of late at #4 and #5. Downing went three sets with Chua in the past, and Boppana got smoked by Tsai last round out but he’s more than talented enough to stick around. Don’t get me wrong, the Tartans need quite a bit of luck entering this draw but it’s not far-fetched.
How they can be beaten: Has to be the bottom of the lineup. They have not won a ranked match at #6 all year and now will have to deal with Charlie Pei down there as well. Additionally, they got swept twice at UAAs, including by this Chicago team. Without a doubles lead, CMU needs singles to go perfectly for them to win. CMU has an uphill battle here for sure plus they are playing on the road. Signs point to the better team in Chicago winning, but CMU always has the formula to surprise.
Player to watch: Ray Boppana. This freshman has really stepped it up all season and will have a tall task playing Raclin/Yuan at #2 dubs and Tsai at #3singles. If he wins both, CMU is in business.
ROSE HULMAN
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: .001%
Power 6 Rating: 60
How they got here: The HCAC champions got here after defeating Earlham in the conference finals – it was much more comfortable than their 5-4 victory over them in the regular season. The HCAC remains Rose-Hulman’s stepping stone into NCAAs and they play a schedule jam-packed to prepare them as much as possible.
Why they can win: Rose-Hulman will have a battle with either Augustana or JCU should they meet, all three schools are arguably the same in the scope of Chicago v CMU region. Rose barely defeated Augustana in the regular season but did so on the back of dominant singles play at the top. Rose must ride the power of Landwehr to success, but won’t be deep enough as a team to handle the big dogs.
How they can be beaten: Rose seems to be comparably weak at 5 and 6 singles – two spots that you simply can’t afford to lose when trying to compete with similar strong teams / attempting to cause an upset. Rose doesn’t have the depth to lose any of their top spots, and that added pressure come tournament time could be back-breaking.
Player to watch: Ian Landwehr is putting together a season and a half featuring victories over: Reifeis, Derezende, Fojtasek, and Stadnyk x 2. His play at the top of both lineups has helped strengthen Rose’s whole lineup, and he should continue to make noise in tournament singles.
AUGUSTANA/JOHN CARROLL
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: .000001%
Power 6 Rating(s): 61 / 56
How they got here: Augustana ran through the CCIW with Wheaton experiencing a down year, while John Carroll repeated as champions but had to overcome a doubles sweep in the finals to do it. Both teams hang out between 15-25 in the central region (as does Rose) and they got here on the power of Pool A.
Why they can win: Both teams feature solid tennis players at the top of their lineups and then fill out their roster with savvy veterans who have collected a lot of misses from their opponents over the year. JCU showed they don’t need a doubles lead to succeed, but not every team is Mount Union…JCU can win over Augustana and Rose if they can get doubles leads and grind in a way that’s soon becoming a Cleveland-area signature. JCU isn’t as dangerous nor as talented as before, but they’ve all been in the tournament before and that means something. Similarly, Augustana rides with an experienced top of the lineup coupled with a doubles lineup that’s objectively better than JCU or Rose. It’s not fun to be down after doubles, and Augustana can use their superior doubles play to win in this area of the bracket.
How they can be beaten: uhhh simply put they don’t have the horses to run with Chicago or CMU – that’s how they’ll be beaten, similar situation to Rose above.
Player(s) to watch: Samuel Totten, the mans is holding down 1 doubles and 1 singles now – as Totten goes so does Augustana. Tyler Cole holds it down in the middle of the singles and doubles lineup, and has shown a history of coming up big with blowout wins in big time moments. I predict he goes 2-0 over Augustana – I’m not sure if it’ll be enough.
Thats all we got for you for now! Check back to the site for the Williams Regional Preview later today and more NCAA coverage throughout the day! Matches have already started and my dream of the perfect bracket was foiled by Tennis Jon. I can never win with that guy. ASOUTH, OUT.