2018 Women’s NCAA Regional Preview: The CMS and Tufts Regions

Hey all, D3ASW here with the final regionals preview on the women’s side! Look at us – 4 articles in the span of 2 days. D3Nameless has been instrumental in our productivity this week but she deserved the afternoon off after all her hard work the past couple of days. I’m here to bring you the last two regions: CMS and Tufts. First round play at CMS and Tufts will have started by the time this gets posted, but for the most part this will still be a preview up the upcoming matches for this weekend. Enjoy!

NCAA Regional Preview: CMS

Host: CMS

#3 CMS

Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 99%

Power 6 Rating: 57

How they got here: CMS has really earned their #3 ranking with their only two D3 losses this year being 5-4 nail biters against #1 Emory and #2 Williams. They cruised through the SCIAC tournament without losing a match, including against #7 Pomona. They also toppled Pomona 8-1 in regular season play. They also have had wins against the barrage of spring breakers that came through their doors including Amherst, Bowdoin, Tufts, and Middlebury. They’re match tested at this point in the season and they are one of the few schools to realistically have their eyes on the championship.

Why they can win: They can get through this regional despite having the highest 2 seed for a few reasons: first, they have a lot of talent and depth as always, second, they are probably the most match tested team in the draw, and third, they have had Pomona’s number for so long now that its probably a mental game more than a tennis game. Against lower ranked teams, their doubles has been flawless this year, and especially in NCAAs where you don’t play to completion, going down 3-0 after doubles is a near death sentence.

How they can be beaten: Unfortunately for the other teams in this region, the only way CMS won’t get to the Elite 8 is if some hazing scandal comes to light and they taken out of the tournament. Yeah, I went there. Hazing sucks y’all.

Player to watch: Nicole Tan is hot right now at #1 singles and #1 doubles. She’ll be playing some tougher competition this weekend but I’m expecting her to get at least a few singles wins in before the matches end.

#7 Pomona

Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 1%

Power 6 Rating: 55

How they got here: Despite being shafted by their location, Pomona had a decent season with wins over Chicago and Amherst, but losses to each of the 6 teams ranked above them. Their most recent loss came in the SCIAC finals to CMS by a score of 0-5, which makes me worry a little about their eventual faceoff with cross street rivals CMS.

Why they can win: This is a talented Top 10 team with a lot of match experience against the higher ranked teams. If they wake up with the attitude of having nothing to lose and come out and manage to play lights out tennis, the match with CMS could get very competitive. I still don’t think they’ll win, but I’ve given them that 1% shot.

How they can be beaten: By being in the same regional as CMS. CMS has played better doubles this year and if the SCIAC tournament and the history between these two schools over the past 10 years is any indication, the match will be over before singles even begins. Heck, the match is probably over even now.

Player to watch: Maryann Zhao is a senior who plays #2 singles and #1 dubs. Her an Arianna Chen were able to take Pomona’s lone win off CMS earlier this season, and she will be giving it her all to close out her college tennis career on a high note.

Side note: Does anyone on the team actually go to Pitzer? I feel like Pitzer always gets shafted because at least with CMS (Claremont McKenna, Harvey Mudd, Scripps) all the schools are represented (fun fact about me, I was almost went to Harvey Mudd so obviously I toured the school and the works but the most memorable thing about my visit was this one student who was riding a unicycle to class but was legitimately terrible at it. He was just falling off repeatedly and literally spilling his books all over the place over and over again and to this day if I feel like I’m bad at something I think of unicycle guy and giggle to myself. Like at that point just walk dude.). Anyways, a lot of the time people don’t say PP, they say Pomona which is a shame to all the Pitzer people out there. So shout out to Pitzer. These are the things that keep me up at night.

#20 Trinity TX

Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: .00001%

Power 6 Rating: 48

How they got here: Trinity had a decent season capped with a SCAC conference win. They had wins against #32 Denison, #27 Whitman, and #26 Redlands, but no top 20 wins. They play Pomona in their first round on Friday.

Why they can win: They haven’t actually played Pomona yet this year but based on results against similar teams this is going to be a largely uphill battle for Trinity. Trinity has a very strong #1 in the form of Caroline Kutach, and two points from her could go a long way but the goal is 5 points and I just don’t see that happening.

How they can be beaten: Pomona has far more depth than the Tigers.

Player to watch: Caroline Kutach got the Tigers lone win vs CMS earlier this season in a super breaker at #1 singles. She’ll also be gearing up for the individual tournament and the match against Pomona will be good practice for the caliber of player she’ll be seeing in individuals.

#27  Whitman

Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 0.000001%

Power 6 Rating: 45

How they got here: By winning the NWC conference title.

Why they can win: As I’m writing this article they are playing against UTT for a spot in the Round of 32 against CMS tomorrow. They’re currently up 3-0 after doubles and its looking like they’ll take the W. However tomorrow probably won’t be so smooth. This is a talented team with a great twitter presence who has put in a lot of solid wins all season, but their wins just aren’t at the caliber to where they can compete with CMS.

How they can be beaten: Unfortunately CMS is just stronger across the board.

Player to watch: Andrea Gu has been very solid for Whitman this year at #1 and #2 singles and #1 doubles and I’m giving her the highest chance of getting Whitman on the board vs. CMS.

#37 UT-Tyler

Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 0.0000001%

Power 6 Rating(s): 42

How they got here: By winning ASC championships. Marisa Quevedo literally cried after coming back from a 4-6, 2-5 deficit to win the championship for her team.

Why they can win: As I write this article they are losing 0-3 to Whitman so this is hard for me to answer. How about that Marisa Quevedo comeback though.

How they can be beaten: If the other team hits more balls inside the court than they do. (My article fatigue is strong, D3Nameless as been spoiling me too much this week.)

Player(s) to watch: I’m going for Marisa Quevedo because anyone who comes back from 4-6, 2-5 to win their conference title then uses 12 exclamation points in a tweet is obviously really passionate about tennis and deserves a little recognition.

NCAA Regional Preview: Tufts

Host: Tufts

#6 Tufts

Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 70%

Power 6 Rating: 54

How they got here: Pool C. Tufts had a great season with resume wins over Amherst, Pomona, MIT and Bowdoin to secure a spot in the tournament.

Why they can win: Huge middle of the lineup strength. I’ve been very impressed by Tufts’ #2-4 singles this season, especially last weekend where they seemed to push an otherwise dominant Williams team in the semis. If Tufts can rely on these points, it will make them dangerous as the look to move on and play a tough CMS (let’s not forget, though, that Tufts pushed CMS to 5-4 over spring break). Tufts has had a really good season and definitely grabbed my attention with back-to-back weekend wins against Amherst. If Tufts can lock in the doubles lead, they can lean on the middle of their lineup to bring home the win and lock in their spot in the Elite 8.

How they can be beaten: They have MIT in their region. Tufts squeaked by this MIT team by taking the lead after doubles. They split the singles matches, most of which weren’t terribly close, but I’ll be looking to 1 and 2 singles as the major swing matches that will ultimately determine who gets the spot in California.

Player to watch: Mina Karamercan. The Tufts #2 just made Individuals proving she’s a formidable opponent for any player in D3.

#11 MIT

Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 50%

Power 6 Rating: 53

How they got here: By cruising to the NEWMAC title last weekend.

Why they can win: MIT made a big jump this year from a decent team ranked around the 20s to a team in the conversation for a top 10 ranking. They have the momentum of a team on the rise and if they can get the lead after doubles then the Elite 8 isn’t outside the realm of possibility. Women’s doubles can be a fickle thing so MIT better hope the wind is blowing in their favor on Sunday.

How they can be beaten: Tufts was able to win their last encounter and also has the advantage of hosting (though if I’m being honest, what advantage does it REALLY give? I think it’s arguable). I think it will come down to who has the lead after doubles and so far this season Tufts has proven to be a little more solid under pressure. Anything can happen at NCAAs though.

Player to watch: SENIORS. Elysa Kohrs, Sonya Das and Dora Tzeng are all big contributors to MIT’s success, and I’m sure they’re looking to go out with a bang (and hopefully an upset!).

Colby Sawyer/John Jay/Johnson and Wales/RI College

Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 0.00001% x 4

Power 6 Rating(s): 37, 21, 33 and 35, respectively.

How they got here: By winning their respective conferences: Colby Sawyer: NAC, John Jay: CUNYAC, Johnson and Wales: GNAC, Rhode Island College: LEC

I’m going to skip the whole “they can’t win because depth/talent/they’re wearing the wrong color” because 1) we all know this already and 2) you don’t want to read about it for the 20th time. Instead I want to talk about what a fun time I hope these schools have competing in the NCAA tournament. It truly is an experience! Between the umpires keeping score for you and the NCAA patches that will never come off if you accidently put them in the washer and those extra couple of days to bond with your teammates, NCAAs is truly a great time. I remember back in the stone age when I was playing, one of my opponents from an unranked school came up to me after our first round NCAA match and told me how she was so honored to play against me and my school. Despite getting beaten soundly, she was genuinely happy to just be there playing post-season tennis and I respected her so much for that. Isn’t that what intercollegiate athletics is all about? I know we continuously talk about what a shame it is that some of the top schools don’t make the tournament, but I still firmly believe that the NCAA experience is just as important for the unranked teams. The heat of competition has the tendency to bring out the worst in people, but let’s all try to remember how privileged we are to be playing a fun sport against well-rounded and (for the most part) well-mannered student athletes this weekend.

Stepping off my soapbox, I hope everyone is enjoying our amped up coverage and is fully pumped for NCAAs to start. D3NEW will be back to help out with coverage next week and D3Nameless will be named eventually! Of course, I’m always an email or a comment away. D3ASouthwomens@gmail.com. Good luck to all the competing teams this weekend and follow us on twitter for frequent updates! Especially @D3NEWomens. Her tweets are legit.

-D3ASW