NCAA Regional Preview: Williams Region
Welcome welcome welcome to our final NCAA Regional Preview! I, for one, am glad we’re done with these and can now focus on the actual tournament! There are a ton of matches today, including two in this regional that start in the next few hours. Check the homepage on the site for updating scores. This Regional features a rivalry as old as time, the team that took a point of Williams during their NCAA title run in 2013, a school named for a minister, a school hoping for a little luck from The Lord, and a final school perhaps to be #Blessed. D3RegNEC will delve into Nichols, Goucher, Messiah and Baruch, but first I’ll take a look at the two NESCAC powerhouses who will almost certainly face off in the Sweet-16 later this weekend.
No. 3 Williams
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 83.99%
Power 6 Rating: 74.91
How they got here: They earned a share of the NESCAC regular season crown by going 9-9 with Middlebury and Bowdoin (5-4 win over Midd and 5-4 loss to Bowdoin) in the regular season. In addition they took down CMS at Claremont on their spring break trip. The Ephs lost to Midd in the NESCAC semis, but have been regarded by The Blog as a top-5 team all season long, and richly deserved their Pool-C bid.
Why they can win: They play solid doubles, they don’t have a weak spot in their lineup, their depth is really really good, and they have EXTREMELY strong bookends to their singles lineup. Like Bowdoin, one of the things that makes Williams so tough is their lack of vulnerability. They can beat you at all nine spots, so if somebody is having a bad day it becomes easier to pick that person up. BG is the #1 player in the region, Lil’ Barr should have made individual NCAAs, Lil’ Raghavan and Kam have earned as many points for the Ephs as anybody this year. Top to bottom, this team is strong, and that makes them tough to beat. However…
How they can be beaten: While they are strong at all spots, they can be beaten by a heavy dose of doubles and other strong players. While Grodecki, Lil’ Raghavan and Kam were all super strong this year, all three did lose matches. Once Williams gets to the Sweet 16, they will only take on teams that play good doubles and also have strong singles lineups. Wei and BG should be a battle, Ma beat Lil’ Barr last time they played, Bessette lost to Raghavan in a super at #3, etc. If Amherst plays their best, they can be more than just competitive at 7 of the 9 spots.
Player(s) to watch: The RAGHAVANI! Both Sachin and Ananth have been mainstays in the middle of the Eph lineup this season, but it’s been the younger Raghavan who has been pulling in more wins in 2018. That being said, Sach has played extremely well on the big stage before, while Young Nanth hasn’t had nearly the same experience. If the Raghavani can pull down two singles points against Amherst, I think it will be very tough for the Mammoths to pull the upset.
Amherst
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 16%
Power 6 Rating: 72.45
How they got here: They earned early season wins over CMU and Wash U on their spring break trip, and then backed it up by splitting matches with Welseyan during the regular season and NESCAC Tournament in order to earn a Pool-C bid.
Why they can win: Wei is not just one of the best freshman in the country, he’s become one of the best players in the country. Ma is playing the best tennis of his young career. Bessette and Fung give the Mammoths the chance to win against just about anybody. Levitin has filled in admirably so far. The top two doubles teams are scrappy and can also beat anybody. They are a tough out, and a team with a big ol’ chip on their shoulder after all the adversity they’ve gone through this spring (and through the past couple years). This team can absolutely make it out of this Regional, yes it would take a bit of luck, but not as much as some of you might think.
How they can be beaten: The middle and bottom of the Mammoth lineup has struggled to replace the shift caused by the departure of Hillis and Kaplan. Fung was a great #6, but has been struggling a bit at #4. Levitin has played pretty well, but will find himself in a tough matchup with Indrakanti at #5. Heidenberg will almost always be an underdog at #6 against top teams, and the Mammoth #3 dubs team has really struggled. While the strength of the top of the lineup allows Herst to stay competitive, it’s really tough to win a match when you’re an underdog at 6 or 7 different spots, and the remaining ones are toss-ups at best.
Player to watch: Kevin Ma. Wei has been outstanding all year long, and is going into NCAAs as the #2 ranked player in the region, but Ma has really had an outstanding season as well. He started the season way down at #5, and worked his way up to #2 through a variety of factors. Recently he notched wins over Lil’ Barr and Finkelman, and if new Regional rankings came out he would likely be at least top-20. If Ma can carry his hot play into the regional, it gives the Mammoths a significantly better chance at upsetting their rival.
NICHOLS/GOUCHER/MESSIAH/BARUCH
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: .0000000001%
Power 6 Rating(s): 60/60/47/47
How they got here: All conference winners, of course. Nichols beat Eastern Nazarene 5-3 to win the Commonwealth Coast Conference, Goucher beat the University of Scranton Michael Scotts 5-2 to win the Landmark Conference, Messiah beat Lebanon Valley College 6-0 to take the MAC Commonwealth Conference, and Baruch won the CUNYAC with a 5-2 win over Hunter. All four teams have been mainstays of the tournament in recent years, with all four defending their conference championships from 2017.
Why they can win: Well, since they’re all playing each other, two of them will win at least one match! None of them have any chance to beat Amherst or Williams, and realistically Nichols and Goucher should easily dispatch Messiah and Baruch. If Nichols played Goucher and Messiah played Baruch, then we might have some very interesting matches.
How they can be beaten: Not much to say here. The Amherst’s and Williams’ of the world are just on a completely different level. Also, it’s worth pointing out that Goucher and Messiah already played this spring! Goucher won 9-0 in what was their third match of the day. So yeah, not a lot of intrigue in that one.
Player(s) to watch: I’m renaming this category “Players with the best names.” My favorites: Slade Dumas (Goucher), Clement Lacoudre (Baruch), Sean Nutter (Nichols), and Andrew Bookman (Messiah)