NCAA Regional Preview: Middlebury Region
The first results from the NCAA tournament are trickling in. Congrats to Yeshiva for winning the first match of the tournament, and undoubtedly busting a fair amount of (no longer) perfect brackets in our challenge! As we continue to roll through our NCAA Regional Previews, this afternoon D3AS and I are here to give you our take on the Middlebury Region. Even though they are the No. 2 seed and just lost to Bowdoin (the NCAA tournament’s top seed) in the NESCAC finals, the Panthers were picked to win the bracket challenge more than any other team (just about 1/3 of the time). Continue coming back to the site as we will be posting the rest of the NCAA Regional previews (both men’s and women’s) by Friday morning.
No. 2 MIDDLEBURY
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 99%
Power 6 Rating: 75.23
How they got here: Despite being the overall number 2 seed, the Panthers did not actually win their conference. They lost to Bowdoin 5-3 in the NESCAC tournament finals, and earned the top Pool-C bid.
Why they can win: As with basically all of the top seeds this year, they are simply significantly more talented than their Regional opponents. If you go position by position down the Panther lineup, you will not find a spot where the Panthers are not favored against either Hopkins or MIT, let alone the other three teams in the Regional. In fact, they have six spots that are amongst the strongest in the country, making it hard to pick against them at any point down the road. Cuba, Farrell, de Quant and Schlanger is an absolutely dirty top four, and those four guys also comprise their top two doubles teams, although Midd’s top dubs team is it’s strongest doubles spot. The Panthers shouldn’t need to rely on solely their top four guys in this stage of the tournament, but they can if need be, which is good enough for me.
How they can be beaten: The bottom of their lineup has been a bit suspect, both in singles and doubles, but that’s only against the best in the country. Midd will still be favored at #5/#6 singles and #3 doubles in the regional. However, if you can expose their depth, you have a shot to win considering you’d only need 2 points from the six other spots. The most likely places to find those for MIT and Hop would be in doubles, as Midd will be HEAVY favorites at #1-4 singles in both hypothetical Sweet-16 matches.
Player(s) to watch: Nate Eazor/Andre Xiao. The freshman Panther duo are slotted to play #5 and #6 for Midd at NCAAs, and are the biggest question marks on this stacked team. Both guys have proven their worth at different points through the year, but playing in your first NCAA tournament on a team that is one of the main title contenders, if not the overall favorite, is nerve wracking to say the least. If these young guns can hold their own and even notch a few wins against teams like MIT or Hopkins, it might be just the confidence boost they need to earn some massive wins in the QF and beyond.
JOHNS HOPKINS
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: .7%
Power 6 Rating: 70.15
How they got here: After a long year of speculation that Hopkins would lose the Centennial Conference to upstart Swarthmore, the Jays decided to squash that ish real quick when they beat down Swarthmore 5-0 in the conference championship on their home courts. Never underestimate the late season Jays, because they brought the tank n’ tree this year once again. With a loss against NC Wesleyan, Hopkins was unable to get a high #2 seed, which sends them here to the Middlebury region. Scary stuff.
Why they can win: There’s not much of a chance that Hopkins can pull this upset off given the way Middlebury is playing, but if they were to do so it would be through doubles and the uptick in play from key contributors such as Vishnu Joshi, Justin Kang, and Eric Yoo. Hopkins has been cleaning up the bottom of the lineup against lesser teams, and this could be a nice confidence builder going into the tournament. Joshi has taken out a ton of ASouth #1s recently as well, and he’s really come on at the end of the year. He even qualified for nationals! Remember,this is a young team – who knows, they could tap into the Hopkins late season magic with no pressure on them to win and a crew that’s probably not scared of Middlebury (even if they should be).
Focusing on their MIT match, Hopkins will need to keep that bottom of the lineup presence. MIT isn’t known for being the deepest team, and they aren’t known for being the best doubles team either. These things line up with what Hopkins does well. That’s good news for the Jays and I expect them to be the favorites in their match against the Engineers.
How they can be beaten: They’ll be beaten because Middlebury simply is more talented at every spot. So, let’s go into how MIT can beat them. First off, the MIT top 3 are veterans, and MIT might have the advantage at those spots. Hopkins 3 has not been playing well and they are a bit shaky at #2 singles, so there might be two points. With Sean Ko at #4 (lol), Hopkins could be looking at a split in singles. So, that leaves it up to the doubles, assuming that Joshi wins at #1, which is far from a guarantee. Hopkins definitely has a shot at losing here, but I have faith in this team’s NCAA play and lack of faith in MIT’s NCAA play.
Player to watch: Justin Kang. The senior plays important positions at the bottom of the lineup and is one of Hopkins oldest players. He will be looked upon to lead the way when the going gets tough against MIT and Middlebury.
MIT
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: .3%
Power 6 Rating: 69.98
How they got here: Winning the NEWMAC conference for the INSERT COMICALLY LARGE NUMBER HERE straight time. The Engineers beat Babson 5-1 in the conference tournament finals.
Why they can win: Because they’re so damn talented. As D3AS will waste no time in telling you, MIT has underachieved with their roster over the past few years. Top to bottom, they should be able to hang with anybody in singles. Barr and Cauneac are established studs, even if both took at least a small step back this year. Ko and Cheng should be excellent middle of the lineup players. They’ve been here before so they shouldn’t shy away from the big moment. AND, what do they have to lose? They will get by Cabrini with no issue, and then as the No. 3 seeds are playing with house money. This team absolutely can go and beat Hopkins.
How they can be beaten: Their depth hasn’t held up over the past couple years, although it is stronger now than it has been in years past. Their doubles has been a bit suspect, and no matter what happens vs Hopkins they would be MASSIVE underdogs against Midd. In addition, certain players have been missing from the lineup over the past few weeks. Not that it really affected any outcomes (except maybe vs Bates?), but if Ko and or Cheng are not playing this weekend, MIT becomes even more of an underdog against a team like Hop.
Player to watch: Victor Cheng/Sean Ko. As I said, neither played in the NEWMAC finals, and Ko hasn’t played for over two weeks now. MIT won’t necessarily need these guys against Cabrini in their first round, but absolutely do need them against Johns Hopkins, where they should be at least slight favorites at #3 and #4 singles. Given that Hop’s strength is the top of its lineup with Joshi, MIT needs to be able to rely on its strengths in what some are considering a toss-up match.
WILKES/COLBY SAWYER/CABRINI
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: .0000000000000001%
Power 6 Rating(s): 58/55/43
How they got here: Wilkes won the MAC Freedom for the 11th consecutive season, Colby Sawyer won the North Atlantic Conference (NAC)/North Eastern Athletic Conference (NEAC) crossover title for the 6th consecutive season, and Cabrini won the Colonial States Athletic Conference (CSAC) championship for the second year in a row. None of these teams were challenged in their conferences this year.
Why they can win: Wilkes/Colby Sawyer actually presents one of the most difficult first round matches to predict, as both teams have a similar Power 6. However, after the first round, if any of these three teams win a match it would be the most shocking upset in NCAA Tournament history.
How they can be beaten: This gets a little redundant through the different Regional previews, but they simply don’t have the talent to compete with any of the top three seeds.
Player to watch: Courtney Murphy (Wilkes). The junior didn’t have the best season of his career, as he took losses to Polk and Sanders (the #1’s from Stevens and TCNJ), but he still decimated all the entire rest of his schedule. He should be the best player on any of these three teams, and if Wilkes wins their first round match, Murphy will get a chance to really prove himself against one of the best in the game, Lubo Cuba.