NCAA Regional Preview: GAC Region
AS: Shout-out to the homies, both women’s side and men’s side, for doing some major lifting this week with Regionals just around the corner. I want to say that this is the last time you can sign up for the Men’s Bracket Challenge, so if you haven’t done that already you have until 10AM on the 10th to do so. That means today, folks. There are over 75 signups already, including DIII Legend Eric Butorac, and then a ton of hodge podge people like Brady Anderson who no one’s ever heard of. Shoutout to you Brady! Anyways, before a big day tomorrow we ratchet it up (as NewD3Central would say) for the GAC region, which surprisingly is going to be one of the more interesting regions this year. Check my predictions when they come out :). Let’s go to the tape. Shoutout to D3Tree for filling out the Coe and other team sections. Tree is my dude.
No. 7 GAC
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 69.5%
Power 6 Rating: 71
How they got here: GAC won their 8th straight MIAC championship at home vs Carleton. This win wasn’t without drama though as the Gusties trailed 1-2 after doubles play and it took a comeback no less at #2 doubles to nab the lone point. In singles play, GAC took a somewhat surprising loss at #5 singles with Derbani falling to Carleton’s Goodman in a third set. That recent scare may prove
Why they can win: GAC has been absolutely stellar this year, especially at key spots in the lineup such as #1, #3, and #4 singles, where Alhouni, Whaling, and Johnson have been legit. Alhouni has an argument for one of the best players, if not the best, in the country. Whaling and Johnson have been balling it up. Not to mention, this team is laden with seniors, with the aforementioned Alhouni leading the way, and with Ekstein (#2 singles) and Entwistle (#6 singles) also representing the older crew. Not to mention, GAC has been playing quality doubles since before I was born. You go down 2-1 to GAC when you’re an underdog and you’re pretty much toast. Whitman has struggled all year in doubles, so GAC can get out front and end that ish right then and there. Oh, and they’re playing at GAC. The Gusties pulled off one of the more stunning upsets in NCAA history last year, beating Chicago, and a lot of that is due to the fact that GAC hosted. I wouldn’t want to go here for a regional. Oh, and this.
I'm in. Anyone want to guess who I took to win it???
— Eric Butorac (@ebutorac) May 9, 2018
How they can be beaten: Given that GAC isn’t normally considered one of the national powerhouses more, they don’t attract 4-5 stars that are playing at the bottom of the lineup like Chicago, for example. GAC does pretty well for themselves down at the #5 and #6 spots, but that is where they are the weakest. It just so happens that Whitman has some solid players down below but will have to find the right combination in order to take advantage here. Another thing – both Ekstein and Entwistle were seen walking in boots after last week’s win over Carleton (who went up 2-1 on them), and one has to question the health of this Gusties team right now. They are still the favorite, but man, it’s getting pretty antsy up in here for this Blog favorite team.
Player to watch: Mohanad Alhouni. I mean, it’s his last tournament, his last matches, and his last chance to put his own legacy on the line for the rest of his career. And what a career it has been. The man they call Mo has staked his claim to the best Alhouni in GAC history and one of the best overall players in GAC history. Expect him to make some waves in his last NCAA Tournament ever.
WHITMAN
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 30%
Power 6 Rating: 71
How they got here: Whitman is the perennial champion of the NWC, taking out Lewis and Clark for another NWC championship just a few weeks ago. The Blues have been the talk of the season based on their home/road splits – this team defeated #15 Trinity TX (lol) 9-0 at home and also took out then ranked Redlands 7-2. They also have a win over Cruz at home. But, on the road, this is where things changed. Losses to both Swarthmore and Sewanee in California make this team a pretty big wild card. Is this the team that can be a #2 seed to make the Elite 8? I think so.
Why they can win: Well, simply because they are good. AND BECAUSE THEY HAVE AN EPIC ROSTER PHOTO. I want to end this paragraph here because I can’t get over the roster photo, but I have to write the rest because that’s what I’m paid to do. Whitman is extremely strong right in the middle of their lineup, with Ben Kirsh having a stellar year at #2 and Gary Ho the senior cleaning up at #3 singles. Zach Hewlin at #1 can beat anybody in the nation on the right day, shown by his win this year against Urken of Bowdoin. Whitman is extremely dangerous. They have a lot of guys at the bottom of the lineup that can feast, and with some questions over in Minnesota about the Gusties health, the Blues are my #2 seed most likely to throw in an upset. Oh yea, and that roster pic.
How they can be beaten: Doubles has been a key in all of Whitman’s losses this year. They went down 2-1 to a notoriously weak doubles team in Swarthmore as well as Sewanee and Amherst, and got straight up swept by Bowdoin. GAC has always been a tough doubles team especially at home, and this is where Whitman will lose the match. Whitman doesn’t necessarily need a 2-1 lead to win, but GAC’s singles is so deep and solid this year that I don’t think the Blues will have the goods to overcome a deficit. Silver lining is that GAC has two guys that are apparently dealing with injuries (Ekstein and Entwistle) and went down 2-1 to Carleton literally this past weekend.
Player to watch: Ben Kirsh. This dude has had an outstanding season at #2 and will be playing Ekstein, who is one of the more vulnerable parts of the GAC lineup right now. I wish I saw more Kirsh in the doubles lineup, but one can only have so much.
COE
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: .5%
Power 6 Rating: 67
How they got here: Coe won their 7th straight IIAC title defeating Luther 5-2.
Why they can win: Coe has played solid doubles for the majority of the year (minus the Grinnell exception). They swept Carleton early in the year and held 2-1 leads against Stevens, Sewanee and Mary Wash. If things are clicking and they are able to take the lead into singles play (preferably a sweep) they may have the firepower to steal some singles wins for the victory. Their best chances for singles points would be #1 Anderson, #5 Ackert and #3 Kudrick in that order. Ackert played the majority of his sophomore season at #2 but shaky play this year as pushed him down the lineup. If he can regain his form from the previous year & fall (where he beat Carthage’s Abban) he could be at tough out.
How they can be beaten: A combination of talent gap and lack of grit would be the ruin for the Kohawks. If they go down after doubles this team hasn’t shown the resilience to fight back for the points they need (aside from Luther where they simply had more talent). Grinnell is the obvious example, but I would wager this team’s cumulative record in third set matches is sub .500. Mentally tough teams find a way to pull out those victories more often than not.
Player to watch: Josh Pudlo – Anderson is the easy choice here because of his success at the top spot and potential matchup vs Hewlin but Coe’s #2 will be the pivotal player for this teams national success. The tall lefty has a dangerous game in both singles and doubles and has the ability to play up and take out opponents that, on paper, are stronger. His matchup with Whitman’s Kirsh should be a good one.
GRINNELL/CONCORDIA/NORTHWESTERN ST. PAUL
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: .00001%
Power 6 Rating(s): 61/56/48
How they got here: All these teams won their conferences, (Grinnell – MWC, CUW – NACC, Northwestern – UMAC) obviously. Grinnell had the biggest win of any of these 3 teams by actually beating Coe during the season to knock them back a bit.
Why they can win: There’s really no way they could. Grinnell would need to convince the regional to travel to their home courts. If they pull a fast one and jump out to a lead in doubles a la Coe and play against a heavily depleted opposing squad they could advance. Grinnell is also, sadly, missing their top singles player due to a serious illness.
How they can be beaten: These teams get beat up at the middle and bottom of the singles lineup (and top really) and thus have no real chance against teams of such superior talent.
Player(s) to watch: Sam Stickles – The Grinnell #2 pulled out a nice win against Coe’s Nate Ackert (who plays 5, but a solid win nonetheless). He should be able to rack up a few wins against Concordia-Wisconsin and may be able to compete early in doubles vs GAC.
Final Thoughts
It’s too late and I have three other previews to do. Watch this region for UPSET ALERT and don’t be surprised if I picked something crazy here! ASouth and crew. OUT.