D3ASW: Again, here I am posting the work of D3Nameless. She’s the bomb. And a seriously talented writer. She’s Team Williams while I’m Team Emory, but I still hope we can be friends. I agree with her in that the Mary Wash/W&L match could be one of the closest and best matches this weekend along with the Wash U/Sewanee matchup, so that’s where I’ll be looking for excitement. Also, last year Hopkins pulled off the magic upset in the Sweet 16 with a win over Tufts and earlier this year I mused that their plan was to salvage their season by doing the same this year but I’m not sure they’ll get it done. And by “not sure” I mean they won’t get it done. Bummer. There’s always next year. Anyways, read her preview. Its awesome. Peace. -D3ASW
Hey guys and gals! After 2 articles yesterday, the team of D3 Women’s bloggers is back with another preview! I was SUPER excited to preview these two regions, as they feed into my favorite quarter with a potential rivalry Elite 8 match-up between Williams and Amherst! I, like D3NE on the men’s side, ride the Williams hype train, so obviously I’m eyeing these gals to win it all (again). Anyways, these regions are fairly straightforward, but we do have a big second round match between Mary Washington and W&L in the second round that could be a thriller. Ok, enough from me, let’s dive into these regions.
NCAA Regional Preview: Williams
Host: Williams
#2 Williams
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 99.99%
Power 6 Rating: 59
How they got here: By going undefeated in the regular season and taking home the NESCAC title on the way.
Why they can win: In D3 women’s tennis, Williams is an undeniable powerhouse. Heck, they’re not even a team at this point, they’re a dynasty. And they’ve proven their continued success this season with powerful dubs, and strong singles to back it up. Williams’ depth is almost unparalleled, and even with Rachel Cross (#2 singles) out with an injury, the bottom of their line up would likely play at top of most other teams’ lineup. Adding to the singles depth, Williams’ dubs has been on fire this year. They can make it easy for themselves by taking the doubles lead (sweeps, anyone?) and closing it out with a couple of singles wins. With a likely Elite 8 matchup against Amherst, I expect Williams to cruise to the Final 4 where they’ll face a Claremont team they squeaked by 5-4 over spring break. As is the case every year, Williams is a serious title contender.
How they can be beaten: Honestly, it’s hard to come up with a weakness on a team that has been so strong not only this year, but every year for at least a decade. However, this Williams team did get quite a scare in singles play from Midd in the NESCAC finals – though they did close it out, it definitely showed some vulnerability in the so far flawless team. That being said, Williams thrives in post-season play, especially at NCAAs – they’ve taken home the title two of the last three years, and I’m sure they’re itching to continue their undefeated campaign.
Player to watch: Eph senior, Julia Cancio is tough as nails and one of the best #4/5s in the country. She plays with grit, and I’m sure she’s hungry to secure another national title for her team to cap off her career.
#23 Johns Hopkins
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 0.1%
Power 6 Rating: 49
How they got here: Winning the Centennial Conference with a 5-0 win over Haverford in the finals.
Why they can win: Following a tough start the the season where we saw this Hopkins team play some tougher teams in Wash U, W&L and Pomona, the Blue Jays are riding a 10-match win streak that stretches back to the beginning of April. Momentum and confidence coming into NCAAs is key and should see the team through Grove City/TCNJ without much trouble. If they can come out with all cylinders firing against Williams, Hopkins could pose a threat…for a couple of games, before Williams is likely to close them out in pretty routine fashion.
How they can be beaten: This is a young Hopkins team, so their inexperience combined with the fact that they’re simply overpowered in the talent department against a team like Williams, is a pretty good indication that they won’t make it out of the region. Even at Hopkins’ strongest positions, Williams is simply stronger, and while they’ve had a good season, I just can’t pick them for the upset and a spot in the Elite 8.
Player to watch: The #1 dubs pairing of Sophia Strickland and Anjie Kashyap has been solid all season, and hey, who doesn’t love an exciting dubs match?
NR TCNJ
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 0.001%
Power 6 Rating: 45
How they got here: By winning the NJAC
Why they can win: TCNJ has had a good season, with their lone loss coming against a slightly stronger Mary Washington team. Admittedly, i don’t know much about this Jersey-based team, but looking solely at UTR Power 6 numbers, they should easily get by Grove City in the opening round prior to facing off against Hopkins.
How they can be beaten: TCNJ should be excited to have made the tournament after a near-perfect season for them. However, when it comes to NCAAs, they are simply out-matched by teams like Hopkins, which means, unfortunately, their season will soon come to a close.
Player to watch: TCNJ’s #1 singles player, Sneha Rangu has been clutch for the team all season and picked up a win against Mary Washington. Look to Rangu to bring the fight to NCAAs and lead her team through to the second round.
Grove City/Scranton/Gwynedd Mercy
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 0.000001%
Power 6 Rating(s): 36, 30 and 27, respectively
How they got here: All teams won their conferences with Grove City winning the PAC, Scranton winning the LC and Gwynedd Mercy winning the CSAAC.
Why they can win: I honestly don’t see a scenario in which any of these teams even make it to the Sweet 16 with teams like Williams and Hopkins in their region.
How they can be beaten: Simply by being the weaker team. When you’re up against teams that are just better at every spot in the lineup, it’s a tall order to pull off the upset. Either way, all these teams should be super pumped about the great seasons they’ve had and making the tournament!
Player(s) to watch: Grove City’s #1, Maggie Manchester has looked good in both singles and doubles all season. Scranton’s 1 dubs pairing of Julia Frattaroli and Nastashia DeNunzio have locked up a solid season. And Gwynedd Mercy senior, Amanda Goff hit the 100 win milestone this year! Congrats to all these schools on a huge season and making it to the tournament!
NCAA Regional Preview: Amherst
Host: Mary Washington
#7 Amherst
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 85%
Power 6 Rating: 54
How they got here: The Mammoths have had a pretty split season (quite literally, actually, their record is 10-9). But they finished 5th in the NESCAC and had wins over CMU and Sewanee, which solidified their spot in Pool C.
Why they can win: Doubles strength and conversion of three-setters. Amhert’s dubs has been strong all season, with their 2 and 3 pairs being reliable wins. They’ve also had a lot of battles in singles. Let’s not forget, this is a team that pushed Emory to 6-3 just over a month ago, with 5 of the 6 singles matches going to three sets. This Amherst team is young, but also gritty, and if they can reel in the focus for NCAAs, they could challenge some of the top teams.
How they can be beaten: Amherst has been pretty streaky this season, and if you look at the box scores of a lot of their matches, the score lines don’t make a ton of sense. This Amherst team seems to be very up and down, especially with their singles play, and a lot of their players seem to be going down in third sets. While this might indicate a lot of their matches are close, they seem to lose steam after coming out firing for doubles. If they want to stage an upset over Williams in a potential Elite 8 matchup, they’re going to have to be a lot more consistent.
Player to watch: Vickie Ip. The Mammoth senior has had a phenomenal career and is one of the top 2s in the country – look to her to make a splash in her last tournament appearance.
#15 W&L
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 9%
Power 6 Rating: 49
How they got here: Winning the ODAC last weekend.
Why they can win: This W&L team wants revenge. They lost a nail-biter to Mary Washington and I’m sure they’re looking to avenge their loss. The key for them will be taking the doubles lead, as the two teams split the singles matches. Should they be able to sneak by Mary Washington, they’ll have their work cut out for them against Amherst. If they want to take it to the Mammoths, they’re going to have to bring both their singles and dubs to another level.
How they can be beaten: Let me make this clear: the potential second round match-up against Mary Washington is a huge SWING MATCH. Just two weeks ago, the Generals lost a tight 5-4 match against Mary Washington. While I like to think of NCAAs as (somewhat) of a fresh slate, the loss is probably still fresh in their minds, but I’m sure these Generals are out for vengeance.
Player to watch: Michelle Fleenor – the W&L senior is looking to end her collegiate career on a high note.
#19 Mary Washington
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 9%
Power 6 Rating: 49
How they got here: Winning the CAC.
Why they can win: Mary Washington has had some big wins this season and have played some very close matches with teams ranked just above them. If they can get pumped up for NCAAs, they can ride their confidence past W&L to set up a match against Amherst for a spot in the Elite 8. While I do think their chances of making it to California are fairly slim, they do have the home court advantage, which could make a difference against an Amherst team who had to drive 8 hours to play.
How they can be beaten: As I said above, their potential second round match with W&L can really go either way. Given that, if UMW is having an off day, they could be vulnerable here. If they manage to make it through, I think that Amherst will prove to be just too tough for them to overcome.
Player to watch: Danielle Mirabella edged the W&L #5 in a tough three-setter that helped push UMW over the Generals. Look to her to stay tough once again in what’s sure to be a marathon match-up in the second round.
NC Wesleyan/Franciscan/Lebanon Valley
Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 0.0001%
Power 6 Rating(s): 41, 24 and 24, respectively.
How they got here: All three of these teams swept their conferences with NC Wesleyan winning the USASAC, Franciscan winning the AMCC and Lebanon Valley winning the MACC (with a surprise win over Messiah).
Why they can win: Again, I’ll admit I don’t know very much about any of these teams, but I’ll give my best take. NC Wesleyan should be able to take care of Lebanon Valley fairly easily, even if I do love the thrill of an underdog who claimed a spot in the tournament via an upset in the conference tournament. However, I think NC Wesleyan’s run will be stopped by Amherst in the second round, as the Mammoths are overall stronger, and more experienced in post-season play. If we look to the other first round match-up in the region, Franciscan will have a tough time getting by W&L, based on UTR alone.
How they can be beaten: Honestly, it just comes down to pure strength and talent, and I don’t think any of these three teams are up for pulling off some big upsets this year.
Player(s) to watch: NC Wesleyan’s Talitha Rowan has steadily climbed the lineup this year; Franciscan looks to have played most of their season in the fall, so it’s hard to determine who’s on fire for NCAAs; and Lebanon Valley’s full line-up must be playing lights out to snag the upset over Messiah! Looks like some good tennis from these ladies this season, which has led to their berths into the biggest tournament of the year = congrats to all!
And there ya have it! There should be some good tennis coming out of these two regionals, but overall, I expect seeds to hold and Williams and Amherst to punch their tickets to Claremont with pretty straightforward wins. As always, let us know if you have any comments – we’re really looking to step up on the women’s side to give y’all the coverage you want and need.