2018 Women’s NCAA Regional Preview: The Wesleyan and Middlebury Regions

D3ASW here. I have the honor of posting this extremely well written article brought to you entirely by our new nameless writer. They are pumping out great stuff this week and I’m so thrilled to have this kind of excitement on the women’s team. If I keep typing I’ll probably just make the article worse so I’ll stop now! — D3ASW

Hello hello! After kicking off the women’s coverage with previews on the Emory and Chicago regions earlier, we’re back with our thoughts on two of the FIVE NE women’s regionals! I am the (currently nameless) new writer that ASW mentioned in her other article, and have taken a shot at bringing you the best coverage I can! (Please bear with me as I learn the ropes, and I’m v. welcome to any feedback) I figured the women’s side deserves just as much attention as the men, and we have a VERY competitive (and fair!) women’s bracket this year, so I decided to throw my hat in the ring to beef up the women’s side of the Blog. I decided to tackle the Wesleyan and Middlebury regions first, as they’re in the arguably tougher portion of the bracket. So, without further adieu, I present you our second preview.

NCAA Regional Preview: Wesleyan

Host: CMU

#5 Wesleyan

Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 95%

Power 6 Rating: 57

How they got here: 1 word: EUDICE. The Wes senior has gone undefeated all spring, and it’s hard to remember the last time she lost to a D3 opponent (I think we might have to go back to her freshman year with a couple of losses to Raventos – need a little fact checking on this one). She essentially guarantees 2 wins for Wes against most teams, and the team is fairly strong in the 2-5 positions, which helped them finish third in the NESCAC.

Why they can win: Depth and consistency. Wesleyan has been steadily climbing in the rankings over the past four years. They’ve had a strong year so far with only three losses to the top two teams in their region, and have shown they can bring it when it matters the most. Some might say that they’re not tested against other top teams in the country (CMS or Emory), but Wesleyan has proved they can battle, and if they ride their confidence into NCAAs, they could give Midd a hard time in a potential Elite 8 matchup. Wes needs to lock-in the points where they are strongest (1 dubs, 1 and 2 singles) and ensure their deep singles line-up stays healthy and can hold their nerve on the big stage if they want to threaten for a spot in the Final Four.

How they can be beaten: Wesleyan’s dubs have been one of their weaker points as of late. After starting the season with some strong dubs performances, they have recently been a little up and down. If Wes wants to make a deep run, they’re going to need to take the doubles lead.

Player to watch: It would be easy to go with the obvious choice of Eudice here, but I’m going to go with Victoria Yu. She’s been on fire coming into post-season and has big wins over some of the stronger 2s in the NE. The 1-2 punch of #Yu-Dice could prove a dangerous combination for any team Wes comes against at NCAAs.

#9 CMU

Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 5%

Power 6 Rating: 52

How they got here: CMU had a pretty strong season that finished with a third place at UAAs. They’ve had some mixed results, but have largely beat the teams they needed to to earn a spot in the tournament.

Why they can win: CMU has shown us some good dubs this season, and if they can continue that trend, they might be able to pose a bit of a challenge to Wesleyan in the Sweet 16. Realistically, it will be tough for them to get by a tough Wesleyan team and into the Elite 8. While they did take out Chicago at Indoors, that was a long time ago, and as we’ve said before, Indoors and NCAAs might as well be a different sport, though we can’t completely count this CMU team out of a surprise upset.

How they can be beaten: CMU had a hot start to the season, beating both Wash U and Chicago in at Indoors. However, coming into the post-season, they seem to have fallen a little flat – falling to a much improved Chicago team, and barely squeaking out the win over Wash U at UAAs. Clearly, a lot has changed over the past 3 months, and it’s not clear whether this CMU team is prepared to go to battle with Wesleyan for a spot in the Elite 8.

Player to watch: Katie Lai has been a very reliable 4 for CMU all year, and if she can continue her winning ways into NCAAs, it could help swing the matches CMU’s way.

#22 Kenyon

Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 0.0001%

Power 6 Rating: 49

How they got here: Kenyon had a really solid regular season only falling to Wash U and CMU, before capping off the season winning the NCAC.

Why they can win: The most realistic case for Kenyon is to get to the Sweet 16, but to do that, they’re going to have to take down a CMU team that beat them 7-2 just three short weeks ago. They should be able to take down Wheaton in a fairly routine match, and they’re going to need all the energy they can get to pull off an upset against an overall stronger CMU team.

How they can be beaten: Kenyon is pretty solid at every point in their lineup, but they haven’t been tested too much against higher ranked teams. They’ve proven they can take care of business on teams ranked below them, but I’m not sure they’re up to the task of an upset.

Player to watch: Erika Oku picked up Kenyon’s lone singles point against CMU in a marathon match and partnered with Diana Aboubakare to pick up Kenyon’s other point in the same match.

John Carroll/Hope/Wheaton

Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 0.00001%

Power 6 Rating(s): 40, 45 and 44, respectively.

How they got here: Winning the OAC, MIAA and CCIW conferences, respectively.

Why they can win: Only one of these teams will likely make it to the second round. Wheaton may be able to put up some fight against Kenyon in the first round, but my money’s on the seasoned Kenyon team to take this one and set up a match with CMU. The John Carroll vs. Hope match has the potential to be close, but the winner will face a peaking Wesleyan, who will undoubtedly be tough to overcome.

How they can be beaten: To get to even the Sweet 16, these teams will have to overcome teams in Wesleyan, CMU and Kenyon, all of whom are just better teams. Pulling off an upset here will definitely be close to impossible.

Player(s) to watch: John Carroll’s Lauren O’Malley has put together an impressive season and is probably itching to get a chance to play the top ranked D3 woman in the second round. Hope’s 2 doubles pairing of Amanda Bandrowski and Bailey Chorney have been tough to beat all season. Wheaton senior Katie Park has also seen success at 1 singles this year. Congrats to these three teams on their conference titles and making the tournament!

NCAA Regional Preview: Middlebury

Host: Middlebury

#4 Middlebury

Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 98%

Power 6 Rating: 58

How they got here: Finishing second in the NESCAC with a thrilling comeback to scare Williams a bit in the final. Midd has been strong all season with losses only to Williams (twice) and CMS.

Why they can win: Singles depth. This Midd team came back from a 0-3 dubs deficit against Williams last weekend at NESCACs to bring the match to an even 3-3 before eventually falling 3-5. They are strong at every spot in the line up and compete with a lot of fire and grit. They beat Skidmore (who they should meet in the Sweet Sixteen) pretty handily earlier in the spring and seem to have been gaining momentum since then. If they can lock-in a dubs lead, they can easily rely on their singles to close the match, and even if they don’t, they can definitely dig deep and grind their opponents down to the wire in singles. This young Midd team is fiesty and definitely in the hunt for the title.

How they can be beaten: Doubles. While their singles have been rock steady all season, Midd’s dubs seem to be pretty up and down. Middlebury does have a good shot at the Final Four, but if they want to take down an always dominant Williams to get to the title match, snagging some points in doubles is crucial. While they have proven they can make big comebacks, this is the post-season, and no one wants to be facing the added pressure of a dubs deficit when you’re only play to decision.

Player to watch: Heather Boehm looks to have gone undefeated this season, and I’m sure she’s looking to finish the season with a clean slate and a deep team run at NCAAs.

#17 Skidmore

Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 1%

Power 6 Rating: 48

How they got here: Winning the Liberty League. Skidmore cruised through their conference tournament with a nice 5-1 win over Vassar in the final. Skidmore has had a great season this year going undefeated in conference and having big wins over UMW and Johns Hopkins.

Why they can win: They have nothing to lose, and when you play all out at NCAAs, anything can happen. Skidmore has had a very solid season beating the teams they’re supposed to beat and generally being steady at every point in their lineup. But whether that’s enough to get them past a tough team like Midd, it is a pretty big outside shot.

How they can be beaten: They have a likely Sweet Sixteen matchup with Midd – a team that has proven better and stronger than this Skidmore team.

Player to watch: Risa Fukusige. The freshman has gone 11-3 this year moving up in the line up from 3 to 1 over the course of the season. She’s been able to keep it close on some of Skidomre’s tougher matches, so we’ll see how she can handle her nerve at NCAAs.

Nichols/Wilkes/SUNY Geneseo/Penn St. Berks/Yeshiva

Odds of making the NCAA Quarterfinals: 0.00001%

Power 6 Rating(s): 39, 35, 34, 17 and 22, respectively.

How they got here: Winning the CCC, MACF, SUNYAC, NEAC and SC conferences, respectively.

Why they can win: Admittedly, I don’t know very much about any of these teams, but what i do know is that all of them will have to battle to get to the second round, and the possibility of one of them making a run to the Sweet 16 seems fairly unlikely. I’ll give SUNY Geneseo the edge over Penn St. Berks to set up a date with a formidable Middlebury in the second round. Nichols vs. Wilkes could be close, with the winner likely taking on a stronger Skidmore team that will be tough to get by after a close first round match.

How they can be beaten: These teams are expected to have fairly close matches with one another in the first round, but versus teams like Middlebury and Skidmore, who are just stronger at every position and have the post-season experience, it’s hard to see a scenario in which any of these teams can get through even to the Sweet 16.

Player(s) to watch: The full lineup of all these teams deserve the attention and praise for capping off seasons with conference wins and winning the tournament!

That wraps up the Wes and Midd regions. Keep posted, as we have more women’s coverage to come, as well as the final four regional previews to get you excited for NCAAs! Let us know what you’d like to see more of on the women’s side (features, articles, commentary, etc), and we’ll definitely work to deliver. But please take it easy on me, this is just my first week!