2019 SEASON PREVIEW: Bates Bobcats

We’re continuing the season of previews with a look at the unranked Bates Bobcats. That is not a sentence Bates fans (and we have some doozies going back to back-to-back infamous bracket reveals and even @ForehandFla) are used to reading, however after a couple 5-4 losses to UW-Whitewater and Babson last spring, the Bobcats find themselves in unfamiliar territory. Like a lot of teams out there, Bates graduated multiple starters, including their top player from last year Josh Quijano; however, unlike a lot of teams out there, Bates has a GIANT freshman class of six players including at least three guys who will likely be thrown into the fire immediately this spring. There is still reason to believe up in Lewiston, Maine, and with a trusted veteran coach known for getting the most out of his top players like Coach Gastonguay, it would be foolish to overlook a youthful Bates squad in 2020.

LOCATION: Lewiston, Maine.

COACH: Paul Gastonguay (24th season)

ASSISTANT COACH: Sam Woods (8th season, wow!)

TWITTER HANDLE: @BatesTennis. Pretty solid when they are tweeting, but like most teams will tweet less when losing. Not the Bowdoin type where they update every change over, but reliable enough, plus (for better or worse) lots of nicknames. 

2019 ITA NATIONAL RANKING: UNRANKED

2019 ITA REGIONAL RANKING: #17

2019 BLOG POWER RANKING: #35

2018-2019 FINISH: The Bobcats had a rough end of the season, dropping five-straight matches against the NESCAC “elite” including Amherst, Midd, Bowdoin, Tufts and Williams. While they fought Bowdoin to 5-3, no other match was closer than 7-2. 

STOCK WATCH: Buy, expecting a small/moderate gain. Look, yes Bates graduated their top player, but the Bobcats’ national ranking is lower than it should be right now because of their ugly loss to Babson last year. While I’m not expecting this team to be ranked #1 in the country by year’s end, I will be surprised if they are still unranked. Buy now but with tempered expectations. 

KEY ADDITIONS: Nick Forester (3-star from Maine), Cam Kania (3-star from Connecticut), Leo Kupferman (3-star from New Jersey), Teddy Koide (2-star from New Jersey), Aaron Ramos (2-star from New Jersey)

KEY DEPARTURES: Josh Quijano (#1 doubles/#1 singles), Ben Eckhardt (#2 doubles/#3 singles), Duane Davis (#1 doubles/#6-7 singles), Dylan Davis (#4 doubles). 

GIF REVIEW OF THE FALL:

BEST CASE SCENARIO: The freshmen really jive, not only as developmental projects (though that is the most important) ensuring the next few years of Bates tennis will be fun to follow, but as winners here and now. It would only take a couple and that could propel Bates back to where it was in the past few years, a perennial top-20 team with NCAA aspirations. An upset of a top-6 NESCAC team and a top-20 finish this year.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: The freshmen prove to be just that, Kauppila becomes yet another player that Coach Gastonguay develops into a contender but the team can’t get over the hump and loses to MIT/Coe/Colby staying out of the national rankings and bringing them into debate for the final seed at NESCACs.

BOLD PREDICTION: Jacob Kauppila will make NCAAs. I touched on this briefly above, but Bates has a history of this sort of thing, taking a talented player who starts off in the middle of the lineup and finishing his career at NCAAs. While JK hasn’t shown himself to be quite on the same level as Rosen or Planche before that, doubting Bates’ individuals just because the team has struggled over the past couple years is shortsighted and foolhardy.

NOT-SO-BOLD PREDICTION: Bates’ closest road match of the year will be with Colby, not a top-six NESCAC program. While Bates may push one of the six teams above them in the conference, they are more likely to fight it out with Colby for the 7th seed at NESCACs than upset a top conference opponent, especially on the road.

3 RANDOM THOUGHTS:

• What’s up with Kauppila and Yadav? Two of Bates’ four seniors were conspicuously absent this fall, and given the losses of Quijano and Eckhardt Bates can ill afford more losses. Both guys are still on the roster so I’m hoping they were simply dealing with minor injuries and will be ready to go come Feb. 15.
• What happens to the doubles this year? You all know I don’t delve deep into doubles in these season previews because so much changes between fall and spring doubles. That said, Bates is a team that plays good doubles year in and year out. They almost always have a top team challenging for NCAAs, but this year they are going to have to do it after losing three of their top four or five doubles guys to graduation. Coach Gastonguay has a great doubles reputation, but this could be one of the bigger challenges he’s faced in that department in recent years.
• This has to be one of the biggest freshman classes in Bates’ history. It’s certainly the largest that I can remember in the last decade. Not only do they have six freshmen, but realistically five of them are probably competing for lineup spots, which is INSANE. Now, it’s unlikely that five start, especially because the transition from junior/high school doubles to college doubles is a massive one, but keep an eye on this class in the years to come as they have the impressive burden of either the reinvigoration of a program or hanging it out to dry…

LINEUP PREDICTION

1. Jacob Kauppila, senior, UTR=11.67, Range: #1-2. Boom, right off the bat we have an unknown. Before this fall I would have said it was 100% that Kauppila would be the top Bobcat this spring, but after a fall where he didn’t play in any of the tournaments that has been cast into doubt. I believe him to be ready to handle the astronomical challenge of playing #1 in the NESCAC, and I’m sure Coach Gastonguay feels similarly, but who knows if his body is up for the challenge (assuming he was injured and not away for a different reason). Kaup was probably Bates’ best player last year, and notched wins over the likes of Barr (projected Williams #1-2), Yang (projected Bowdoin #1), and Xiao (projected Midd #2-4) in NESCAC play alone. As I said in my bold prediction, I can see big things in store this year, if the senior can stay healthy.
2. Leo Kupferman, freshman, UTR=11.50, Range: #1-5. After Kauppila, it’s pure chaos as to the order of the rest of the lineup. Three freshmen distanced themselves from the pack this fall and Leo was likely the best of them. He beat ITA champ SCS (projected RPI #1) in the first round of Wallach before losing to Scott Altmeyer (projected Colby #1) in a super in the next round. He fell to ITA runner-up Stanley Morris (projected Midd #1) at Midd in his first collegiate match, and he won a round at that ITA, knocking off Bilicic (projected Trinity #1-2) before falling to Gorlik (projected Tufts #2) in the 2nd round. All in all, a VERY promising start for a somewhat unheralded recruit on the national stage.
3. Vid Yadav, senior, UTR=11.67, Range: #2-5. Like Kaup, Vid also didn’t play at all this fall. The rumor is that both guys were injured, so we will have to just wait and see if they are ready to go in a couple months. Yadav went out in the middle of last spring, and has barely played in matches since. He was playing #3 behind just Quijano and Kauppila, and I expect to be in the mix for the #2 spot if he comes back fully healthy. However, this long of an injury (or multiple injuries) is something to worry about, especially now that it’s the senior’s final go. I don’t have any fall results to base this on, but I believe Lil’ Yadav (ask D3AS, he’s besties with Dhruv) has the ability to beat anybody on any day. However, as it often does, that can come with some head-scratching losses. In order for Bates to compete against the top six in the conference, they need their senior back.
4. Nick Forrester, freshman, UTR=11.13, Range: #2-7. The second of the trio of 3-star freshmen, Forrester was Bates’ second entry into the New England ITA, where he lost to Frelinghuysen (projected Williams #4-6) in the first round. Along with Leo, he was A-Flight at Midd and won a match (also against RPI) before losing to Altmeyer in two tight sets. He beat Ross deRose in the 1st round at Bates, but then was beaten by Yang in the second round. Not as successful a fall season as Kupferman, but positive nonetheless and played #2 against Franklin Pierce ahead of Kania and Eisenberg in Bates’ one fall dual match. Forrester also was a part of Bates’ top doubles team this fall, partnering with fellow freshman Kania at ITAs, where the two beat the seeded Colby duo of Altmeyer/Wegner on their home courts before losing close to Yang/Bradley (Bowdoin). They also made the A-Flight finals at Bates, before losing 8-6 again to Yang/Bradley. As much as I can expect anything with doubles, I expect this to be a doubles team not only this spring, but hopefully for a few years to come.
5. Cam Kania, freshman, UTR=10.70, Range: #3-7. Speaking of Cam Kania, which sounds like the name of a trusted steed of a medieval knight, I have him slotted in at #5. Even though he also has quite the range, he played above Eisenberg but below Forrester and Kupferman in the Franklin Pierce dual match. I feel good about him in the 4-6 range, barring some massive offseason improvement. As I said, Cam won a round in doubles at the ITA, but he also won a round of A-Flight singles at Bates (also beating Bilicic) before losing a super to Gorelik (which is a much better result than Leo’s at the ITA.) Cam was B-Flight at Midd, won a round over Powis from Colby, and then pushed Jeff Chen (projected Brandeis #4-5) to a super in the second round. Like Leo and Nick, Cam’s start is a positive one, and he will likely find more success playing in this part of the lineup than the other two playing higher up, as I see all three of these guys as around the same level at this time.
6. Jacob Eisenberg, senior, UTR=9.72, Range: #3-7. Finally, somebody who isn’t a freshman or wasn’t hurt this fall! Eisenberg is another Bates senior who has a lot of singles experience from the past season. He did not have a very good record, but match experience is match experience, and that’s why he has the edge over guys like Ramos in my mind. He played a lot in the middle of the lineup last spring, which was probably higher than he should have been due to some injuries, but hopefully he can build on that for his senior spring. This fall, he fell in the first round at Midd to Tzeng (projected Brandeis #3-4), and won two round in the B-Flight at Bates before losing to Justin Wang (projected Bowdoin #3-5) in the semis. Jacob also played #4 against Franklin Pierce ahead of Kennedy and Ramos, and won his match in a close super. I think Jacob is more of a singles player than a doubles guy, but we could also see him at the bottom of the doubles lineup.

In the hunt: Nick Glover, Aaron Ramos, Alex Kennedy, Teddy Koide. Glover is probably in a tier above the others in this category as he will very likely be in the starting doubles lineup, and is the most likely to make his way into the singles lineup as well. Ramos is more likely to be in the doubles lineup than singles, and Kennedy and Koide are guys who could get a shot as well. Ramos and Koide are freshmen so that could go either way (big learning curve but also the quickest to improve), while Glover and Kennedy are more of known quantities at this point in their careers. Given the likelihood of injuries, lineup swapping, and his experience, I would be surprised if Glover never gets a shot in the singles lineup.

SCHEDULE ANALYSIS

Bates heads back to Florida this spring, forgoing the California trip and instead scheduling a couple of non-DIII opponents to gear up for the season. I understand this idea from Coach Gastonguay as Bates’ spring break is in the middle of February and the team doesn’t get to practice at all, let alone outside before going and taking on teams like PP/Redlands/CMS and it’s usually a rough trip for the Bobcats. This way the team still gets a bonding experience of a trip, but without the “Pool-C is pretty much gone” feeling that usually accompanies the cross-country flight back to Maine.  

Bates’ first match back in the Northeast is against mini-rival MIT. This is a big match for both teams, but really big for Bates’ chances of moving back into both the national rankings and possibly even the top-25. Hosting this match is big as both teams have a home-court indoor advantage. Bates then opens conference play at Midd the following weekend which will be slightly more interesting if Bates is coming off a big win over MIT

Then the Bobcats go…back to the sunshine state? That’s right, they’re taking two trips down Florida in the span of a month, this time to take on Coe and Hopkins. This must be in place of the now usual Mid-Atlantic trip that Bates has taken many times over the past decade usually playing teams like Hopkins, UMW, and NCW/Stevens/Swat/some other team on a trip. If Bates loses to MIT, the Coe match is probably their last real shot to get back into the national rankings without upsetting a NESCAC team. 

The end of the month brings us back to conference play. Bates hosts Tufts, which should make that match significantly more interesting, but the Bos are still certainly favored, then off to Colby where the teams will likely be jockeying for the 7th seed at the newly-expanded NESCAC Tournament this May. Later in April, the Cats will have shots against ranked opponents when they host Amherst, Brandeis, and Williams in addition to hitting the road against Bowdion and Wesleyan. 

With NESCACs being eight teams in 2020, Bates really should have no trouble making the postseason, but I’m sure they won’t be satisfied with simply an appearance. They should be aiming for a top-6 seed in the conference tournament, and to develop as much as possible during tough matches against an extremely talented conference, but one without a true frontrunner at the moment.