Fast Facts
Location: Northfield, Minn. (45 miles south of Minneapolis)
Head Coach: Stephan Zweifel, 23rd year as head coach (and here’s your yearly reminder that he’s also a biology professor and perhaps the only coach in D3 tennis with a Ph.D. in molecular genetics!)
Assistant Coaches: Nick Crossley (ninth year) and Josh Heiden (sixth year). Both Gustavus alums.
ITA Ranking: 38th National, 8th in Central in last May’s year end rankings—the exact same as 2018.
Blog Power Ranking: 29 (up from 40 in 2018)
UTR Power 6: 65
Twitter: @CarletonTennis
Hashtag: #SwordUp
Additions: Varun Iyer (4 star, 11.26), Noah Mueller (from Dubai, 8.45), Will Stepanski (3 star, 9.66) Aswath Viswanathan (2 star, 10.07), Lucas Balon (2 star, 9.00) – 20th ranked class on TRN
Departures: Jordon O’Kelly (1 doubles, 5 singles), Aaron Goodman (3 singles, 2 doubles)
Key storylines
- Starting with the low hanging fruit here. Leo established himself as one of the best players in the country last year, and no one would argue if you picked him to win the NCAA singles championship this spring. This fall, he absolutely breezed through the ITA Regional, not dropping a set and not having a single set be closer than 6-4. At the ITA Cup, however, he lost all three of his matches–to Hopper (Case), SCS (RPI), and Mora (Emory). All three were in three sets, and those results don’t concern me at all. That said, how does Leo handle being the overwhelming favorite in every match he plays? Carleton is going to go into every match they play assuming they are starting up 2-0 (#LeoforTwo), and while I’m sure it will work out like that pretty often, that’s a lot of pressure.
- While the UTRs aren’t as impressive as their TRN star ratings, Carleton is still bringing in a very solid freshman class. Varun Iyer could make a very solid 2 or 3, adding some more depth to a Carleton squad that needs to find consistent points in places besides #1 in the lineup. I also just get a feeling that the culture on this team is changing a bit, and the underclassmen are a little more excited about winning tennis matches than making funny jokes on Twitter, and all this new blood could only further shift the culture in a positive direction. That, combined with an influx of talent, is a recipe for success.
- Carleton only had ITAs this fall, and besides Leo, the best singles results were a quarterfinal run from Iyer (loss to Raut, GAC) and a round of 16 from sophomore Xander Roti (loss to Derbani, GAC). In doubles, Leo/Iyer paired up to make the semis before losing 8-2 to champs Fouchier/O’Neil (GAC) in the best result for the Knights. Notice a trend here? Some solid results, but GAC a bit better.
- Besides Leo’s individual accomplishments, the storyline of the year, as usual, is can Carleton top Gustavus in the MIAC? If you had no historical perspective and just looked at players, UTRs, etc, it would be a resounding YES. However, I still think Carleton is not there yet. Gustavus is a little deeper, always always always puts out some solid doubles, plays tougher matches to get battle tested, AND most importantly, Carleton hasn’t really pushed Gustavus yet. Dethroning the perennial conference champ is a process, and more often than that it takes a few tight 5-4 or 6-3 losses before getting over the hump. Carleton is talented enough to beat Gustavus this year, but when taking everything into consideration, I think the more likely scenario is a couple close losses—setting the stage for a possible upset in 2021 for Leo’s senior year.
Schedule Analysis
- Not a ton of opportunities to move up the rankings for Carleton this spring. Their only matches against teams ranked ahead of them are Gustavus and Wash U. Last year Carleton had an excellent spring break schedule in Hilton Head, but this year the Knights are heading (very) west as they go to HAWAII! While that sounds like a sick trip, they don’t have any D3 matches scheduled out there. Also, it’s worth mentioning that Carleton is far from the only D3 team heading out there this year, as CMS, Trinity TX, Caltech, and Pacific are all going in January and Wash U is also going in March.
- For as few chances as Carleton has to score wins over teams ranked above them, there are plenty of dangerous matches against teams around 40-50 where they will have a target on their back. I’d favor Carleton in all of these matches, but if they manage to get through all of the following without a loss, they should be pretty pleased with themselves going into the MIAC tournament: UW-La Crosse, UW-Whitewater, UW-Eau Claire, Grinnell, Luther, Coe.
- It all boils down to Sunday, May 3rd in the MIAC final—Gustavus vs Carleton. For better or worse, that match defines the season in a lot of ways for this squad.
Final Thoughts
I feel like almost every preview I write is a variation of the same thing—can x-team upset the perennial conference champ? As always, I’m sticking to my rule of not picking that kind of upset until it actually happens. Given their schedule and roster, I expect Carleton to stay right around where they have been the past couple years—nationally ranked, but barely, and firmly inside the top 10 of the regional rankings. I’m honestly just as interested to see what happens from a recruiting standpoint this year (they’ve already got a 3-star committed), because like I said up above, I’m looking for the stage to start being set for a Carleton MIAC Title in 2021!
Should be fun to watch.