No. 3 Middlebury vs No. 6 Wesleyan
NE: Welcome to MY NCAA Quarterfinal. That’s right folks, as it’s two of my teams, IT BELONGS TO ME! While we have four exciting quarterfinals ahead of us, this is the one I will be following the closest. Not only has this developed into a nice little rivalry over the past few years, but this is the THIRD time these two will be playing this spring! They split their previous matches, with Wesleyan winning 6-3 at Midd during the regular season and Midd exacting revenge in the semis of the NESCAC tournament. This one has a ton of little intricacies that should make it really fun: top players who know each other well at this point, a great coaching battle, a title defense on the line, a battle between the youth of the Cards and the experience of the Panthers. I know I know, Brandeis has taken over the role of DIII darling, but let’s remember that Wesleyan is playing for its FIRST EVER trip to the Final Four. That’s pretty damn exciting. So what will it be, the continuation of a title defense and a 6TH CONSECUTIVE FINAL FOUR trip for Middlebury, or will Princeton Carter and the Cards dance on the grave of the 2018 NCAA title as Wesleyan makes program history? I’ve brought along D3AS to give a combative and conflicting opinion, as he does whether you ask for it or not. Feel free to skip past his bluster and go straight to the information.
AS Addendum: This is obviously D3NE’s preview, but since no one wants too much NE (or AS either, I will admit), I will hit you with an injection of the measles vaccination some ASwizz swag. NE will tell the story of these two teams I’m sure (I’m doing this preview before him), and I shouldn’t have to tell you that this will be a really damn good match. Wesleyan has been a team that has overachieved all year. Middlebury has teetered on the brink of underachieving and then just trying really hard at the end and winning NESCACs (and they hope NCAAs). This is all well and good if you’re Lebron James, but let’s be honest. Middlebury is not Lebron James. And I think we will start to see that fact starting with this match. Wesleyan might not win, but they will show cracks in the Panthers team that will be exploited by even better teams. For me, I have Wesleyan winning it all in my bracket, because I want Coach Fried to donate some of his lifetime earnings to my personal blog wallet. Basically my personal wallet. But all jokes aside, this is a fantastic matchup between two different narratives.
When: Not before 4:30 p.m.
Where: Sorenson Courts (Western Michigan University).
Weather forecast: Low-mid 50’s and cloudy.
Middlebury
Power 6: 70.63
NCAA experience: Finalists in 2016, Final Four in 2017, NATIONAL CHAMPS IN 2018
Strength: Singles in general but especially top of the lineup.
Weakness: Singles depth, I guess.
Starting seniors: Lubo Cuba (#1 singles/#1 doubles), Noah Farrell (#2 singles/#2 doubles), Peter Martin (#1 doubles)
Starting freshmen: Stanley Morris (#6 singles)
Wesleyan
Power 6: 69.79
NCAA experience: Missed tournament in 2016, Quarterfinals in 2017, missed again in 2018
Strength: No truly weak spots
Weakness: Almost no NCAA experience
Starting seniors: None
Starting freshmen: Peter Anker (#2 singles), Noah Lilienthal (#3 singles/#1 doubles), Zach Lieb (#6 singles)
MATCH BY MATCH PREVIEW
#1 doubles: Cuba/Martin (Midd) vs Lilienthal/Roji (Wes)
AS: Both times out this year, Lillienthal and Roji have won this matchup. It’s gotten closer since the first time, mostly because Middlebury switched Martin in for Eazor. They gained a couple of games with that move. Obviously, with the amount of talent that is on this court, this should be a battle. I am a little bit wary of picking against a senior Cuba and with a young duo in Lillienthal and Roji. I have many memories of teams that simply were not ready for the intensity of the Elite 8. I am hoping that this young team does not let that happen. So, with no confidence whatsoever… Wesleyan, 8-6.
D3NE: I agree with AS that the match will stay tight, and the Cuba/Martin top Panther duo have avoided the bad losses that Cuba/Eazor somehow took early in the season. Noah and Adrian have been not only the best team in the region this year, but arguably the best team in the country. They have plenty of passion and I don’t think will be intimidated by the moment. Cuba may be the best doubles player on the court, but I like the Cards duo for a 3rd time. Wes, 8-7.
#2 doubles: Farrell/Samets (Midd) vs Carter/Holtzman (Wes)
AS: It looks like Wesleyan has switched their lineup in doubles a bit at the bottom as well and this time out will be a rematch of the past match at NESCACs, which Farrell/Samets won by the score of 8-5. Carter is quite clearly the lifeblood of this Wesleyan team, but he can sometimes get too crazy and go totally off the rails. Will Wesleyan be able to channel his intensity to pull an “upset” here at #2 doubles? I love passion. So, I’ll go with passion. Wesleyan, 8-7 (6)
D3NE: I’m not picking based on passion, I’m picking based off having no idea which version of Farrell/Samets show up on Monday. The volatility of Midd’s doubles has been what’s kept them from a top ranking for most of the year. However they have been better of late, and I think they sneak by with a win on Monday. Midd, 8-6.
#3 doubles: Xiao/Morris (Midd) vs Finkelman/Sweeney (Wes)
AS: Both times out, this match has gone to the tiebreaker no matter who was playing. The chances of that happening again have to be low, right? Wrong, it’s the same because they are individual events. #StatsLesson. I will go out right now and guarantee that neither team is going to get the sweep in this one. So, by process of elimination, I choose Middlebury, 8-4.
D3NE: Yet another match that really could go either way. I have a decent amount of faith in both of these teams, but not ALL that much. I think this one stays close as well. Wes, 8-6.
#1 singles: Lubo Cuba (Midd) vs Andrew Finkelman (Wes)
AS: Oh, Lubomir. It’s tough for me to go with possibly the most talented player in the country, it really is. Lubo has turned it on as of late as well. After a five match losing streak at the beginning of the season as he was finding his bearings, much like RegionalAS on a Saturday morning, he has won 7 of his last 8 against top competition. Only loss is coming from Grant Urken. I really wanted to pick Finkelman here, but that would go against the following things:
- Picking against a senior (although does Cuba really have the “senior magic?”)
- Picking against the better, more experienced player
- Picking against literally the best player in the country
Okay, that’s enough. Finkelman has a lot of tennis ahead of him, but this is not the match that he wins. Middlebury 7-5, 6-2.
D3NE: AS laid this one out very nicely. I don’t really care about senior magic, but I care that over the past month Cuba has looked like one of the best players in the country. Midd 4-6, 6-2, 6-3.
#2 singles: Noah Farrell (Midd) vs Peter Anker (Wes)
AS: Now, this is a very interesting match. Farrell has had quite a unique year, with head-scratching losses and of course his fair share of wins. Noah is of course a senior (or at least I think that’s what he technically is), which gives him a bit of a boost at the NCAA tournament. But, Anker beat him last time out. If Anker can avoid some mental meltdowns and game penalties from line calls, I’ll go with the international freshman. Wesleyan, 7-5, 7-5.
D3NE: Anker has been hotter than any Wes player not named Lilienthal of late. He even knocked off Farrell with relative ease at NESCACs, exacting his revenge for a Farrell smoke show back in April. I’ve been picking against Anker for the last month and i’ve been wrong almost every time. You’d think I’d learn my lesson…Midd 6-3, 6-3.
#3 singles: Andre Xiao (Midd) vs Noah Lilienthal (Wes)
AS: Noah Lillienthal has essentially lit up my twitter DMs the past week or so. The kid is playing his best tennis right now. Meanwhile, Xiao has had his struggles against top competition, with Wesleyan being one of those teams. Noah won this one in straights last time and Xiao has not won a completed match the past 8 times out there. Think about that for a second. Noah rolls. Wesleyan, 6-3, 6-0.
D3NE: This has to be the spot where Wes has the biggest edge. If Midd wins this match, Wes will be in some serious trouble. Breathe easy for now (right, like Coach Fried will take even one easy breath before Monday). Wes 6-3, 6-2.
#4 singles: Adam Guo (Midd) vs Adrian Roji (Wes)
AS: After starting the year losing matches at #5 singles, Adam Guo has stepped up to win 7 of his last 8 matches. So, if you want a reason why Middlebury has gone from looking like nothing to looking like a national title contender, look no further than Mr. Guo and Mr. Cuba. Both players have stepped up as of late. When I first looked at this matchup, I thought advantage Roji. But now I look closer, and I say advantage Guo. Middlebury, 4-6, 6-3, 6-1
D3NE: Roji clinched Wes’ win at Midd during the regular season, but that was against Xiao. Against Guo at NESCACs, the Panther came away with a fairly routine straight-set win. This could be a very fun/dramatic match, and if Roji can pull it out we might just see a Wes upset. Midd 7-6, 6-4.
#5 singles: Nate Eazor (Midd) vs Princeton Carter (Wes)
AS: I like epic finishes. And you’re not going to get a more epic finish than Princeton Carter clinching the match for the FInal Four. So, I will pick Princeton Carter clinching the match in the Final 4. Much like some of the other matchups in this series, the results have basically been “whoever is playing better that day.” Princeton Carter plays better on this day. Assuming that it’s good Princeton Carter. Wesleyan, 5-7, 6-1, 6-4 (clinch)
D3NE: Good grief, I can’t even imagine the earthquake that would register if Princeton Carter clinches a semifinal berth for the Cards. It would break the Richter scale and then some. Prince is actually 0-2 against Midd this year, including a straight-set loss to Eazor at NESCACs. Although Nate struggled some this year, he’s been playing well of late, and got some invaluable NCAA experience last year. Midd leads 6-4, 6-7, 3-1
#6 singles: Stanley Morris (Midd) vs Zach Lieb (Wes)
AS: Stanley Morris sure has had an interesting year. He started out very high in the lineup, but really hasn’t had much success. He’s now playing at #6, which seems to be much better suited for his play right now. I don’t have much confidence in either of these freshmen, to be quite honest. Lieb has been in and out of the lineup this year with not many big wins either. I really don’t even know who to pick. I guess I just won’t pick anyone. Tie, 7-5, 5-7, 3-3.
D3NE: Like the 3rd doubles match, this is one that could go either way and if either guy can get an easy straight-set win it could totally change the momentum of the match. Plus when you throw in the fact that both are freshmen playing on a new stage and the biggest match of their young careers, you really have no idea what you’re gonna get. Midd 7-6, 7-5.
MATCH PREDICTIONS
D3NE: Midd 5-3
AS: WESLEYAN 5-3. SCREW ANY HATERS THAT SAY WE DON’T PREDICT UPSETS.
DIIIWest: Midd 5-3
RegAS: Wes 5-3
newCentral: Midd 5-3
NewRegional: Wes 5-4
AVZ: Midd 5-2