Welcome to the 2nd of our NCAA Quarterfinal previews. D3AS and newCentral already took a deeper look at the UAA rivalry matchup that is Emory vs Wash U, and now DIIIWest and I are here to examine the quarterfinal between the top seeded CMS Stags and the final Pool-C entrant in Bowdoin. As already scientifically proven, CMS is the favorite to win the tournament this year. They were picked almost 90% of the time in our bracket pool, which is a staggering amount given the talent of all the top teams in 2019. Obviously, if they are the favorites to win the whole thing, the Stags are favored in Monday’s QF matchup. In fact, Slam tennis gives CMS an 80% chance to win the matchup, second only behind Emory’s 90% chance to beat Wash U. While 80% might seem pretty high considering just how dangerous Bowdoin has been over the past few years, let’s remember that CMS CRUSHED Bowdoin earlier this year in the Stag Hen Finals when the Polar Bears were on their spring break trip in California. Both lineups are at least a little different, but the top-four singles matchups and the top doubles matchup should be rematches. Let’s learn a little more about each of the teams and then get onto the good stuff with the match by match preview.
When: Not before 2:00 p.m.
Where: Stowe Stadium (Kalamazoo college courts)
Weather forecast: Mid 50’s and partly sunny
CMS
Power 6: 73.13
NCAA experience: Two Quarter Final appearances and one runner up finish in 2017.
Strengths: Singles, especially their depth, postseason experience
Weaknesses: Doubles, rain (indoor environment vulnerable)
Starting seniors: Julian Gordy (#3 singles/#1 doubles)
Starting freshmen: Nic Meister (#6 singles)
Bowdoin
Power 6: 69.35
NCAA experience: Three consecutive Final Four appearances, last year’s runners up, and one FREAKIN NCAA TITLE way back in 2016!
Strengths: Doubles, top of the singles lineup, intangibles
Weaknesses: Depth, lots of inexperience after the top-2
Starting seniors: Grant Urken (#1 singles/#1 doubles), Jerry Jiang (#2 singles/#1 doubles)
Starting freshmen: Oscar Yang (#3 singles/#3 doubles), Evan Fortier (#5 singles/#2 doubles)
MATCH BY MATCH PREVIEW
#1 doubles: Gordy/Parodi (CMS) vs Urken/Jiang (Bowdoin)
DIIIWest: Both teams are absolutely established doubles pairings and have racked up some impressive results this year. Gordy, in my opinion, is the best doubles player on the court and that could be the deciding factor in this one as it will be tight throughout. Urken and Jiang are fantastic players and have the ability to out-talent pretty much any duo in the country. I think Urken is going to step up big in this one and take control with his booming serve and large presence. When these two teams played each other in March, it was Urken/Jiang that took it to this Stag duo and I see the same happening again. Bowdoin: 8-5
D3NE: Both top teams who have qualified for NCAAs. And while Gordy is a damn good doubles player, I’m going to disagree with my left coast colleague here because I’m not sure there’s a better doubles player in the country than Grant Urken. Bowdoin: 8-4
#2 doubles Burney/Park (CMS) vs Fortier/Wang (Bowdoin)
DIIIWest: Burney/Park played #3 doubles when they played Bowdoin last and lost to Wang in that one. However, Wang played with Patel, not Fortier. We’ll see if the new partner in Fortier will result in the same outcome, but you have to give the edge to the doubles pairing that has been playing together for most of the year. Burney has played with both Katzman and Park throughout this spring but his doubles results speaks for itself. He has won 15 straight doubles matches and 18 of the last 20. He is in rhythm and whether he is sharing the court with Katzman or Park, you have to give the edge to the Stags in this one. CMS: 8-5
D3NE: Sorry my man, you’ve fallen victim to a classic Bowdoin name trap Burney/Park played against Yang and Patel last time, not Wang and Patel. I’m not sure how I feel about the team of Katzman and Liu at #3 dubs, it seems like almost too good a #3 team, but apparently nobody else agreed with me enough to do anything about it. Then again, you can’t really say it makes the #2 team worse bc anything Burney touches turns to gold. NOT TODAY PEOPLE. Bowdoin: 8-6.
#3 doubles: Katzman/Liu (CMS) vs Yang/Patel (Bowdoin)
DIIIWest: Katzman/Liu played #2 when they beat the team of Zhao/Wang back in March. Two new faces greet them at #3 doubles but I don’t see it making much of a difference. This Stag team is lethal and I don’t see them losing more than a couple games in this encounter. Katzman has been on an absolute roll this year and his compatibility with Liu will shine in this one as they’ll find a comfortable win against Bowdoin. CMS: 8-3
D3NE: Yang and Patel are a pretty solid doubles team, but as I said above Katzman and Liu at the bottom of the doubles lineup is just filthy. I agree with DIIIWest that CMS takes this one, but maybe it stays a little closer. CMS: 8-5.
#1 singles: Niko Parodi (CMS) vs Grant Urken (Bowdoin)
DIIIWest: Barnburner. These two have played several times with the last matchup going the way of Parodi in two tight sets. It’s hard to decipher which is the better plater as each are extremely talented and instrumental pieces to the overall success of their respective programs. However, I do feel that Parodi is a bit more dangerous when and if he is on. Usually this time of year, Parodi kicks it into gear and that is something Urken does not want to see. But who am I to say, Urken most definitely kicks it into gear this late in the season as well as showcased by his team and individual runs last spring. This one can go either way, but I am leaning towards a Stag win. CMS: 6-3, 7-5
D3NE: GET. YO. POPCORN. READY! Like the top doubles matchup, this is another spot that Bowdoin will need to win if they are going to pull off the upset and make their 4th consecutive Final Four appearance. There’s a solid chance this one doesn’t finish, especially is CMS takes a doubles lead, but both these guys do play quickly so even a 3-set match could finish. Bowdoin leads: 4-6, 6-4, 2-1
#2 singles: Jack Katzman (CMS) vs Jerry Jiang (Bowdoin)
DIIIWest: Katzman has yet to lose a singles match this year and Jiang is definitely one of the few #2’s out there capable and dangerous enough of having that winning streak come to an end. Last time these two played, Katzman beat him pretty handily (3 n 2), but this is a new match with way more at stake. I do believe Katzman will have all the nerves and jitters, but again, hard to go against momentum and confidence in this one. Katzman knows how to win and it’s hard to pick against a player that doesn’t lose sets very often. CMS: 7-5, 6-1
D3NE: I can’t even express to you how much I want to pick Jerry Jiang in this match. He has all the important factors. He has NCAA title experience, he has won HUGE matches for Bowdoin before, he is a senior, he keeps a cool head under pressure. But all of those things aren’t enough to take down the best #2 in the country and very possibly the best overall player in the country in The Katz Man. Out of respect to Jerry and everything he’s done for Bowdoin over his career, I’ll leave this one unfinished. CMS leads: 6-3, 6-6.
#3 singles: Julian Gordy (CMS) vs Oscar Yang (Bowdoin)
DIIIWest: Both fantastic #3’s, but by golly, Gordy was able to dismiss Yang last time they played losing just one game. You have to believe Yang will put up a better fight in this one and the scoreline will surely be tighter, but hard for Yang to actually believe he’ll win when he barely scraped by a double bagel against the same player just a couple months back. This is a huge mental test for Yang and sure, I see it being a tight encounter, but a huge edge for Gordy in this one. CMS: 6-4, 6-2
D3NE: Now we wager into the danger territory for Bowdoin. From here on out CMS will be favored at every spot, and unless they get a doubles sweep (and even then they still might) they will need a point from somewhere in the bottom four singles spots. Yang couldn’t hang with Gordy the last time around, but he has put up a couple of big matches this year. If Bowdoin surprises, it could be here, but it’s still unlikely. CMS: 6-3, 6-1.
#4 singles: Robert Liu (CMS) vs Justin Wang (Bowdoin)
DIIIWest: Whichever Stag is at 4, they should be the favorite in this one. Not much else to say, but the singles depth flexing real hard at this portion of the lineup for the Stags. Hard for many teams to find wins at 3-5 against this CMS team. CMS: 6-4, 6-4
D3NE: Probably the spot at which CMS is the most favored. Liu has been a great addition to this team, and Wang has struggled all year long. CMS: 6-2, 6-2.
#5 singles: Daniel Park (CMS) vs Evan Fortier (Bowdoin)
DIIIWest:Park has had a tremendous year and is slated to play the freshman that has most definitely made mark in the lineup this spring. Park will be the favorite in this one and I think he’ll be a bit too steady for the freshman who will undoubtedly be nervous in his first quarterfinal match. Big edge to DP in this one. CMS: 6-1, 6-4
D3NE: Noah Lilienthal gets all the credit (and deservedly so) as the freshman of the year, and while Fortier isn’t even the highest playing freshman on his own team, I would argue that he should have been in the running for NESCAC freshman of the year! He’s contributed often in both singles and doubles now, and has moved up with aplomb whenever called upon. Evan, you’ve had a great season, but this is Park’s match. CMS: 7-5, 6-3.
#6 singles: Nic Meister (CMS) vs Justin Patel (Bowdoin)
DIIIWest: Two lefties round out the lineup for both teams. Meister has lost just one match this year in singles and that was a 3rd set TB. Patel has had a ton of experience playing in the national setting and will have the edge in that capacity. However, I don’t see this match finishing but I do give the slight edge to Bowdoin in this one. Park had a tough-ish time against Patel when these two teams played one another – I think Patel will use his experience and talent to push Meister. Bowdoin leads 7-5, 3-2
D3NE: DIIIWest is right that Patel has the experience edge on young master Meister, but I’m not sure that’s enough in this case. While Patel has been solid this year, Nik has been better than good. If there are a bunch of matches that remain unfinished, this one will probably be one of them, but my gut tells me to go with the lefty Stag. CMS: 6-4, 7-5.
MATCH PREDICTIONS
D3NE: CMS 5-2
DIIIWest: CMS 5-1
AS: CMS 5-1
newCentral: CMS 5-1
NewRegional: CMS 5-3
AVZ: CMS 5-2