After all the drama at UAAs last week, it got me SO excited for NESCACs, so here’s to hoping the NESCAC can provide as many thrilling matches as the UAA! The women’s side of the Blog has been putting out awesome coverage in the last couple of weeks, so I really feel the need to pick up the slack, plus this is my favorite time of the year (and marks the almost 1 year anniversary of me joining the Blog as #Nameless – side note: am I THE Arya Stark as a girl with no name?!?!). Anyways, the NESCAC has been anything but straightforward this year – we even were not sure who would nab that last spot, but now that we have the teams set, we can get into the fun stuff! P.S. I’m copying ASW’s format because she did such a good job with her UAAs preview.
As for a look at the local weather, it looks like Friday will be rainy up in Middlebury, but Saturday and Sunday look clear….for now. I’m not going to jinx it or make any assumptions because we all know the weather in the Northeast can change with the drop of a hat, but here’s to hoping NESCACs will be held on Midd’s beautiful outdoor facility (as seen above).
Team summary
#3 Middlebury – 1 seed
Chance of winning the whole thing: 80%
Worst losses this season: CMS
What to expect: Midd has had a flawless season this year, with the exception of their 8-1 drubbing at the hands of CMS. Aside from that minor flaw, which I will add was at the very beginning of Midd’s season, the Panthers have been formidable. They did play close 5-4 matches with Pomona-Pitzer and NESCAC foe Wesleyan, but aside from that, they have looked pretty near perfect. Boehm and Hughes have been on FIRE at the top of the Panther lineup this spring, and Puccinelli and Schossberger are probably among the toughest 3 and 4 players in all of D3. Midd’s dubs have also been pretty top notch (they swept Emory when the two played). I’d say their only weak spot is the bottom of their lineup, and even then they’re not weak – just more competitive. If Midd continues on the way they’ve been playing, I see them swiftly claiming the NESCAC title.
#4 Wesleyan – 2 seed
Chance of winning the whole thing: 10%
Worst losses this season: Emory, Middlebury
What to expect: Wes has had a pretty awesome season themselves, boasting only two losses to two teams ranked higher than them. Plus, they pushed Midd to a pretty close match earlier in the spring. The Yu sisters plus Venia Yeung at the top of the Wes lineup is formidable and honestly kinda terrifying to contemplate playing against, though they have at times struggled against other top teams like Emory and Amherst. Wes’ strength primarily lies in their 4-6 singles spots, and Kiseleva, Almy and Nakamoto have played so so well this season. In my mind, Wes is the only real threat to Midd, and honestly, I think they’re pretty underrated, and thus a dark horse. I wouldn’t be that surprised if Wes pulled off the upset and took home the conference title.
#7 Bowdoin – 3 seed
Chance of winning the whole thing: 3.5%
Worst losses this season: Skidmore (yes, I went there), Wesleyan, Brandeis, Middlebury
What to expect: Bowdoin has set up a first round re-match against the Ephs in a match that I think will be under quite a bit of scrutiny, as it may determine that final Pool C spot. At this point, Bowdoin is pretty much a lock for one of the 7 Pool C spots, and they have the confidence of a solid 6-3 win over Williams just this past weekend. I think they’ll get through Williams with ease to set up a semi-final showdown with Wes. Bowdoin’s young team has really impressed this year, with standout and clutch freshmen like Fleming Landau (last week’s POTW) and Devon Wolfe, plus they have a freshman in Julia Marks at the very top of their lineup. Given their youth, however, I’ll be interested to see how the Polar Bears deal with the pressure and environment of post-season play. Every D3 alum I’ve spoken to really emphasizes the difference in post-season atmosphere and how experience really plays a role in a team’s success in handling those situations.
#6 Amherst – 4 seed
Chance of winning the whole thing: 3.5%
Worst losses this season: Emory, Bowdoin, Wesleyan, Middlebury
What to expect: I was pretty high on the Mammoths at the start of their season. However, as of late, I’m a little worried about the strength and fire behind Amherst. Just last weekend, they were absolutely obliterated by Midd, they lost without too much of a fight to Wes, and the fell in a close match to Bowdoin, which I thought for sure Amherst would have the upper hand. It seems to be the trend, but if Amherst wants to make a deep run in NESCACs, they’re really going to have to up their doubles game. Their singles are so strong and a top three of Bukzin, Smuckler and Dewire is absolutely loaded, so if they’re able to pull through in doubles, I think they could reverse a lot of the losses they’ve seen this year. Freshmen Evans and Owensby have been rocks at the bottom of the lineup and any combination of those two plus Trapness, Ivenitsky or Ramras would be a pretty solid bottom of the lineup for the Mammoths. I think the key for this team is to play with confidence and a little more fight that what I’ve seen of the Mammoths in the past few weeks, if they do that, they’re definitely dangerous and could make a big upset run. Also, side note, I LOVE the DI-esque photos the Amherst women have – this is the golden standard, take note other D3 teams.
#9 Tufts – 5 seed
Chance of winning the whole thing: 1.5%
Worst losses this season: CMS, Pomona, Bowdoin, Wesleyan, Emory, Middlebury, Amherst, MIT
What to expect: After losing two of their players early this spring, Tufts has had a pretty mixed season, with the high point being their win over Williams and the low being their recent upset loss to MIT. As is the trend of this year’s NESCACs, their first round match will be a recent foe in Amherst, who they lost to just 10 short days ago. The key to the first round match for Tufts is definitely going to be doubles – they played Amherst close in the two matches that went for the Mammoths, and they’ll need the dubs advantage to take on a full-health Amherst team. I’d look to Obeid and Garrido to continue their march of success this season as they head into NESCACs, and hopefully their play will inspire and motivate the whole Jumbos squad to pick up a surprising win over the Mammoths. I’d say it’s pretty unlikely, but it’s the post-season and anything can happen…
#10 Williams – 6 seed
Chance of winning the whole thing: 1.5%
Worst losses this season: Amherst (x2), Pomona, Tufts, CMS, UC San Diego, Wesleyan, Middlebury, Bowdoin
What to expect: So I’m sure people are kind of questioning how a team that is 5-9 on the season and 3-5 in conference made the NESCAC tournament, but Williams has had some good wins and gained their entry on strength of schedule. Either way, I’m glad the Ephs got the nod into the tournament, but I would be lying if I didn’t mention that I was worried about their post-season prospects. I’ve heard it through the grapevine that THREE Ephs are currently in boots (though 2 have seen playing time in the past few weeks), and it looked like they had to forfeit one singles match this past weekend. Sending recovery vibes to the Williams team if they want to make a deep run at NESCACs…If the Ephs are going to flip the score against Bowdoin, they’ll be looking to convert those super close dubs matches, which is definitely doable if the Eph squad gets in good health. I think a dubs lead would be a huge confidence boost for the Ephs, and I’d then look to Bush, Neveaux and Henderson to use their experience and lift their team through the remainder of the match. I’ve been down on the Ephs this year, but this is a post-season team, and the magic could just be starting now!!
Keys for the Weekend
Doubles: Always. When you’re playing to decision, taking the lead early is SO IMPORTANT. Not only because you’re that much closer to winning and only need to take a few more points, but also because it means you play less and that’s what we all want as we eye the next round (not because we don’t all love tennis – it’s tiring and so HARD on your body, ok???).
Confidence / Experience: So I know I’m going to get some angry hater tell me that these two are VERY different, but in the case of the post-season, I think they go hand in hand. The more experience players have playing in a post-season environment, the more confidence they will have, it’s as simple as that. When I was a player, I always thought the post-season felt different – different pressures, more heart, more fire, and I think that having played through those matches, when you come back the next year, you are more prepared and ready to take all that on and fight for your team’s life.
Okie dokie, that’s all I’ve got! I’m considering doing a match-by-match preview for the semis and finals of NESCACs so lmk if that’s something y’all would be interested in!
Yours always, NEW