2019 NESCAC QF Preview

NESCAC QF PREVIEW

We made it, boys and girls! We survived the grind of #UAAWeek which means it’s time for NESCACs! The men play first this year up at Middlebury, and therefore have the morning slots on Friday, Saturday and Sunday for the QFs, SFs and Finals respectively. We have Pool-C implications galore, individual ranking battles, teams fighting for their postseason lives and unfortunately the end for at least a handful of special seniors. We kick off early on Friday morning with our quarterfinal matchups which basically provide two win-and-in situations. If the best conference in the country beating up on each other while vying for supremacy and NCAA berths isn’t exactly your thing, first get your head checked and second wander on over to our #D3Dogs Bracket to cast your vote before it’s too late! 

No. 5 Williams vs No. 4 Bowdoin

When: Friday at 8:00 a.m. (9:00 a.m.)? The NESCACs schedule and seeding release say two different times, but the Bowdoin and Williams websites both say 8:00 a.m. so let’s go with that early wake-up call for now.

Williams’ ITA Rank: #9

Bowdoin’s ITA Rank: #8

Weather: Hi 40’s and rainy, so look for this one, especially due to the early start time, to be played indoors. Neither team is playing at home, and Midd’s courts are some of the most normal in the conference, so this shouldn’t really give an edge to either squad.

What happened last time: This one happened not even a week ago! Bowdoin took a tight doubles lead and never looked back, riding their edge at the top of the lineup to three quick straight-set wins. Williams didn’t start their #2 or #4 singles players, although Barr did play doubles. I’d expect most of the lineup to be the same, but add Barr/Chung or both to the singles lineup this weekend and you’ll see a plethora of different matchups.

Why it matters for Williams: If they lose this match, their season is over. They will no longer have any semblance of an argument for a Pool-C berth, and Deepak Indrakanti’s career will come to an end. If that doesn’t fire up the Ephs, who have been admittedly sending mellow vibes man all season long on Twitter, I’m not sure what will. Historically they always perform well at NESCACs, so let’s see what they have in store for Bowdoin on Friday morning.

Why it matters for Bowdoin: D3AS said that Bowdoin can lose to Williams on Friday morning and still earn a Pool-C spot. I’m not so sure that’s the case. I think you open the door the possibility of Williams getting that final spot, or even the UAA getting 3 Pool-C teams in (Chicago, Brandeis AND Wash U). However, I agree with the Headmaster when he says that a win LOCKS the Polar Bears in. So to me it’s very simple. Win and you’re in, lose and you have to await your bubble fate.

Williams’ biggest lineup question: Will Barr or Chung play singles? It makes the Ephs much tougher when their strong depth is actually playing at the bottom of the lineup instead of the middle.

Bowdoin’s biggest lineup question: Will Justin Wang be in it? Wang has certainly struggled this year, but removing him from the lineup hasn’t really paid immediate dividends either. Even if you can’t justify keeping him at #4, playing him at #5 and leaving Patel/Fortier at #6 just gives them that much of a better chance to win their match.

Williams’ recipe for success: Generally it’s been doubles and relying on their depth all year long, but I think the Ephs’ best way to win this match is to play more of their full lineup (duh). Even if it’s one of the two guys, Barr or Chung, Barr makes Williams THAT much more likely to win at #3-6, and Chung REALLY improves the chances in the bottom half of the lineup. They only need one, but I do think they need one of the two to play, along with Raghavan and Indrakanti (both of whom have also missed time). Unless there’s something else going on we don’t know about…

Bowdoin’s recipe for success: The same as their recipe all year long. Take a doubles lead, win a couple times at the top of the singles lineup, and use the pressure of a 4-1 lead to get just one more point out of the rest of their lineup. Yang beat Raghavan soundly last weekend, which was probably the most surprising result of the matchup, but that win could easily come from Patel or even Fortier if Wang plays and they both are at the bottom of the Polar Bear lineup.

Individual Implications: Urken is a lock and might be locked into the top seed unless he loses to Cuba in what would have to be the tournament finals. A loss to Kam/Barr (Barr played #1 vs Bates) would hurt his seeding, but not even that much. Meanwhile Jiang is hanging on by a thread, and a loss to Kam/Barr should drop him out of the top-7 and probably even out of wild-card range. Bowdoin won this matchup at #1 doubles last week, but a win for Williams should lock them into a top-3 spot as well, along with Wes and Bowdoin. A loss for Williams wouldn’t kill them, but it opens the door to dropping them into wild card territory (where they should still earn a bid).

Prediction: Whichever team takes a doubles lead will be in good shape, but it’s tough to pick against Bowdoin based on what we saw last weekend. I’ll take Bowdoin in a closer 5-4 battle than last match, but won’t be shocked if William plays Barr and/or Chung in singles and sneaks out a 5-4 win.

No. 6 Tufts @ No. 3 Middlebury

When: Friday not before 11:30 a.m. (could be much later if indoors and Williams/Bowdoin go long)

Tufts’ ITA Rank: 19

Middlebury’s ITA Rank: 6

Weather: Low 50’s and rain possible. Better chance this one is played outdoors, but if indoors then I guess a slight edge to Midd who is playing on their home indoor courts and can practice there all week beforehand.

What happened last time: Midd casually just overcame a doubles sweep and won all six singles spots, including two three-setters. Midd has switched around their doubles and singles lineup since then, so we probably won’t see a rematch of too many individual matchups, unless Coach Hansen liked the singles edge he had last time?

Why it matters for Tufts: The Jumbos need to win this tournament to make NCAAs, as even a run to the Finals shouldn’t be enough based on their many early season close losses. However, they have played every single one of the teams ahead of them closely this year, and had real chances to beat four out of the five (Bowdoin being the lone exception). Their most likely role is spoiler here, as a win over Midd might knock the defending champs out of Pool-C, but you’re kidding yourselves if you think Coach Gregor’s group doesn’t believe they can win the whole tournament.

Why it matters for Middlebury: Much like Bowdoin, the Panthers are facing a win and you’re in scenario for NCAAs. I can’t see any situation where Midd beats Tufts and doesn’t make the tournament. However, a win over Tufts also allows Midd the opportunity to avenge an early season 6-3 loss to Wesleyan where Midd lost both of the three-setters (#1 and #3 singles). Even though they are the No. 3 seed, if the Panthers doe beat Tufts, Midd will be just as big a favorite to win NESCACs as any of the three other semifinalists.

Tufts’ biggest lineup question: After constant lineup shuffling all year long, Tufts’ lineup has finally become at least somewhat consistent. The only question is whether or not Coach Gregor has a trick up his sleeve and we see somebody veteran like Biswas inserted at the bottom of the lineup instead of Bartok or Moldy.

Midd’s biggest lineup question: I’ll touch on the Cuba/Farrell debate later in the individual section, but it’s probably the order of Eazor/Guo/Morris at the bottom of the singles lineup. It might not matter as much here, but could make a world of difference against Wes in the semis.  

Tufts’ recipe for success: Well we’ve seen a doubles sweep end up in a loss, and we’ve seen Tufts take 4 singles spots from one of the top teams in the conference, so it really just depends on the day! However, even though Midd is playing better doubles since switching up their teams, a Tufts upset still begins with a doubles lead or even sweep. After that, Sorkin absolutely can beat Cuba, Gorelik is only a slight underdog vs. Xiao after losing the last match in two tight sets, and both Eazor and Morris have proven to be susceptible to off days, especially whichever of them will be playing #4 against CHG.

Midd’s recipe for success: Shockingly it also starts with a doubles lead, though it’s not necessary (as we saw earlier in the month). You don’t want to have to bank on Cuba beating Sorkin, but we know when the heat gets turned up Lubo is one slippery son of a gun. Farrell will be a big favorite over Pentousis (assuming they put Farrell back to No. 2 again and don’t try to get him a win over Sorkin, more on that in the next section). And Guo will be a favorite over whoever plays #5 for Tufts. Even though I said Eazor and Morris haven’t been spectacular this year, whichever plays #6 will be favored in that spot as well.

Individual Implications: No real doubles implications, though Cuba/Martin should move up the list. In singles, Cuba and Sorkin will be for the #2 seed in the region, as Sorkin will be out for revenge, and possibly even the top spot if Urken takes a bad L this weekend. However, we saw Midd swap Farrell and Cuba against Amherst last weekend, but Sean Wei beat down Farrell and Cuba took out Ma somewhat easily. That seems like a bad swap for Midd again here, as Cuba and Sorkin is a toss up, while Farrell should be a heavy favorite at #2. Even in the best case pre-match scenario for Midd, Farrell is only a slight underdog against Sorkin and Cuba is the same amount of favorite at #2 as Farrell would be, thus giving Midd a significantly worse chance to win the match. They should be ok either way, but is giving a player a hope at NCAAs worth the risk of your entire team getting upset and missing out on NCAAs?

Prediction: Midd stomps out any thought of a Pool-C insurgency, and beats Tufts 5-1.