We’re at the time of year where April showers bring May flowers. But much importantly, in the world of DIII tennis, this means the turning point from regular season play to the excitement of conference championships and NCAAs…as if there hasn’t been enough excitement already. We all know that NESCAC, UAA, and SCIAC are the conferences that get most of the attention, but those conference tournament previews are already published or in the works by my fellow bloggers, so I’m here to help out @D3NEWomens with her region because it has quite a lot of teams, so I’ll preview the NEWMAC championships which start Saturday (a.k.a. today or tomorrow, depending on your time zone). Also, I am still a newbie to this whole blogging thing and this is my first conference preview and investigating teams is tricky and predicting matches is stressful so don’t judge too harshly.
Since 2012, the NEWMAC conference has, for the most part, been dominated by MIT, with Babson and Wellesley usually coming in some order as the #2 and #3 teams in the conference. In 2014 Babson actually beat MIT to win the automatic entry into NCAAs. I doubt we’ll see a major upset in the finals this year, as MIT is the clear favorite after the regular season. As far as the tournament itself goes, the top six teams make the NEWMAC tournament, and this year the two quarterfinals happen this Saturday, the semifinals are on Tuesday, and the final happens next Saturday. Without further ado, I’ll get on with previewing the teams and matches.
The Teams
#1 MIT
Chance of winning the whole thing: 92%
The bloggers were pretty high on MIT at the start of this season, but a tough Indoor Nationals had us a tad concerned, especially with the loss to a Wash U team that has struggled all season. Since then, MIT has bounced back and proven that they are a strong team, with a 5-4 win over a Brandeis team now ranked #8 nationally, and a crazy comeback win over #9 Tufts. MIT hasn’t been too tested in NEWMAC regular season play, as they beat Babson 8-1 and Wellesley 7-2. They did go down to Wellesley 1-2 after doubles, but took care of business in singles. No other NEWMAC teams can match MIT’s strength and depth in singles, but their doubles hasn’t been especially consistent. I expect MIT to win the title next weekend, but if they want to avoid some drama and stress they’ll need to come out strong in doubles to secure a lead heading into singles.
#2 Babson
Chance of winning the whole thing: 5%
Babson women’s tennis has been trending on Twitter with the news of their incoming recruit who is already being compared to Eudice, but as far as this year is concerned, I can’t really figure out Babson. When their full lineup is healthy, I think they are a sneakily dangerous team, but they haven’t had any win that would propel them into the rankings, and a few players have been in and out of their lineup. Babson barely beat Connecticut College 5-4 and handled Wellesley 8-1. Sophomores Alexa Tutecky and Carolina Merz at #1 and #2 are really solid (Alexa Tutecky actually beat Pomona’s star senior Caroline Casper earlier this season), and they have a DI transfer playing #3 now. I don’t think the lower half of Babson’s lineup can match MIT, so I think their hope for the title lies in putting together a great day in doubles and a couple key singles performances near the top of the lineup.
#3 Wellesley
Chance of winning the whole thing: 2%
Wellesley hasn’t played any close matches this entire season. They have only lost matches 2-7 or worse, or won matches 8-1 or easier, so it’s hard to judge what level team this is at. That being said, Wellesley has a couple players/doubles teams who have picked up good wins here and there. Wellesley got wins at #1 doubles and #1 singles over Tufts, and although Wellesley lost to Babson 8-1, some of the singles matches were close. I doubt Wellesley can push MIT enough for an upset there, but I do think it’s in the realm of possibility for Wellesley to pull off an upset over Babson to reach the finals if Wellesley has a good day and Babson has an off-day or doesn’t have their full lineup.
#4 Mount Holyoke
Chance of winning the whole thing: <1%
The #4, #5, and #6 teams in NEWMAC are actually quite interesting. During the regular season, Mount Holyoke beat Springfield who beat Wheaton who beat Mount Holyoke. Mount Holyoke has a deep team by NEWMAC standards, but their depth didn’t come through earlier this season against Wheaton, so they’ll need to turn that around if they want to hold their seed and reach the semifinals.
#5 Wheaton
Chance of winning the whole thing: <1%
First things first, Ines de Bracamonte from Wheaton deserves a shoutout for being so solid at the top of the lineup for her team. It’s her senior year, and she has only lost one singles match against a DIII opponent this spring. But if Wheaton wants to make it past the first round, they’ll need more than just a solid performance from de Bracamonte. Their team did just that against Mount Holyoke in the regular season, so they’ll be aiming to repeat that win.
#6 Springfield
Chance of winning the whole thing: <1%
Springfield is the unlucky team in the 4-5-6 triangle because they’ll face Wellesley first round. Springfield put together a good win during the regular season to take down Wheaton in April, but couldn’t compete with Mount Holyoke’s depth. The top of Springfield’s lineup can’t match the top of the lineups of the other teams in the tournament, but the middle- and lower-lineup players really helped Springfield earn the win over Wheaton and qualify for the tournament.
The Interesting Matchups
In my mind, there are three interesting matches likely to take place during the NEWMAC tournament: the first-round match between Mount Holyoke and Wheaton, the semifinal that will almost certainly be between Babson and Wellesley, and then, of course, the finals, which I’m presuming will be between MIT and Babson.
#4 Mount Holyoke vs. #5 Wheaton
Wheaton won this matchup during the regular season, but Mount Holyoke still earned the higher seed. I think this match being played at Mount Holyoke takes away an advantage that Wheaton had during their regular season meeting, and I think the lower half of Mount Holyoke’s lineup will play better than they did against Wheaton in the regular season. My prediction is that Mount Holyoke will avenge their loss and win this match to make the semifinals, but any result is possible and I’d love to see a close match, because it will be a good win for either team to reach the semifinals.
#2 Babson vs. #3 Wellesley
Assuming Wellesley beats Springfield tomorrow, we’ll see the Babson vs. Wellesley faceoff on Tuesday. The 8-1 win by Babson a couple weeks ago doesn’t reflect that a few of the singles matches could have gone either way. I do think Babson is the stronger team (as long as they aren’t missing anyone near the top of their lineup) and will come away with the win, but Babson can’t take this match lightly, and I do think it will be a battle before Babson actually takes the 5th point to decide the match.
#1 MIT vs. #2 Babson
If Babson does beat Wellesley and MIT beats the winner of Mount Holyoke/Wheaton, next Saturday will decide who earns the NCAA bid. Throughout all NEWMAC regular season matches, MIT has only lost one singles match, and I think MIT’s solidness and depth in singles will secure the conference title for them. That being said, doubles could be interesting, as MIT hasn’t been as consistent in doubles as singles. MIT went down 1-2 in doubles to Wellesley (nearly avoided the 0-3 sweep) and #3 doubles snuck out a close win against Babson recently to give MIT the 2-1 advantage heading into singles. I think Babson would have to sweep doubles in order to have a shot at this match. My prediction is that MIT will go up 2-1 after doubles, and then a few singles wins from the bottom half of the lineup will earn MIT the win.
Ok, my first conference tourney preview is now complete, but be on the lookout for more conference tournament previews and more content from your favorite women’s blogging team!