NewReg INTRO: With the women’s tournament getting underway today, the men’s tournament kicks off tomorrow morning at 8:30! For the 5th year in a row, we’ve got a Brandeis vs. Case matchup. After Brandeis rode a doubles sweep to pull off the big upset two years ago in the 5th place match, Case returned the favor last year. After going down 2-1 after doubles and dropping 4 first sets, Case stormed back to upset the Judges. The stage is set for another barnburner this year, and though it was tough to get newCentral to lay off the memes to get the previews started, here we are with the first preview of UAAs!
D3RegionalNEC: So much for getting newCentral to lay off the memes. He’s knee deep in vines right now so I’m here to fill in once again and keep on rolling in what has been a night of Blog-sanity. The entire D3 Tennis world should be glad I don’t care about the NFL draft.
CASE IMPLICATIONS
RegNEC: Please reference ASouth’s Pool C articles (linked below) for the full story on whether Case has any shot of making NCAAs via Pool C. The gist of it is that they don’t, really. It would take a major upset in the semis, but they can’t do that unless they get by Deis. Obviously, Coach Todd and the boys can also dream of winning the tournament to get in via Pool A, but that’s even less likely. For the dream of NCAAs to live for at least another day, however, they need to win against Brandeis. It’s truly a win or go home (but not actually….they’ll still play two more matches regardless).
BRANDEIS IMPLICATIONS
NewReg: First of all, I encourage you to read ASouth’s most recent Pool C article here – 1) because who doesn’t love a nicely formatted Excel table, and 2) you’ll find Brandeis listed! Yes, it’s a long shot, but the Judges head to UAAs with a chance to qualify for NCAAs! There’s two paths for the Judges to qualify via Pool C, and both roads start with a win over Case. A win over Case and an upset of Chicago in the second round would give Deis a strong resume, and it would be really hard to keep them out of NCAAs. A win over Case, loss to Chicago, and win in the 3rd place match presents a more difficult argument, but they would certainly be in the discussion. Besides an NCAA bid, a win over Case would be a strong way to cap off the best year in program history. Brandeis is currently ranked 9th in the most recent ITA Rankings, and finishing the season in the top 10 would be an incredible achievement. In a sport where we haven’t seen a team make a breakthrough like this in quite some time, it’s refreshing to see a new name in the top 10. A loss isn’t without consequences, as it would set a likely 5th place date with CMU who, despite the down year, is no cupcake. There’s no doubt that a 6th place result would be a disappointing finish to a great year from the Judges.
RegNEC’s 3 REASONS WHY…Case wins the match
1) Energy! I touched on this in my ridiculously dope article from like two hours ago, but even though Case has cooled off from where they were years ago, this team is still defined by their fire, loudness, and energy. While Deis is likely to come out ready to match them, they don’t quite have the same foundation in place, and with a young team, the Case bench mob could have an impact.
2) Battle tested. Brandeis has had an awesome year, and perhaps part of why they aren’t in position to make Pool C is because they haven’t had quite as many big matches as their competition. While Case is also on the outside looking in, it’s more because they haven’t won the matches they needed to, not for lack of opportunity. From Indoors, to spring break Orlando, to Wash U and Chicago on the same freaking day, this huge match at UAAs is just another day in paradise for CWRU.
3) Jon Powell. Clearly both me and NewRegional think #4 singles is going to be a big swing match, but I give the edge to Powell, who’s gotten better at a steady clip and has had a great season overall. In a match like this it’s important for your rocks to get you the points you expect, and I think Case can rely on Powell to keep delivering the goods.
NewRegional’s 3 REASONS WHY…Brandeis wins the match
- Middle of the Lineup Steeze: I love digging into stats, and love it even more when teams have navigable stats pages on their websites. Against ranked teams, Brandeis has gone a combined 22-11 at #3-5 singles. Case has gone 21-18 at those same spots. This isn’t a perfect comparison as both teams have played different opponents and all that jazz, but that’s a strong record for Deis and a clear advantage. The middle of the lineup is a rare advantage for a team, and Deis should get at least 2 points out of these spots
- Ice in the veins. Brandeis is battle tested. 5-4 wins over Caltech, Pomona and MIT show that this team, and no 5-4 losses show that this team is always ready to battle. Coming back from a sweep against Midd to take 3 of 6 matches showed guts, and a 7-2 win over Tufts showed they can close out good teams. That’s not to say that Case hasn’t played close matches, their win against Amherst and Indoors win over CMU were great, but can they win a 5-4 match, outside, away from home? Let’s find out.
- Jeff Chen. Yes, Chen plays #4 singles so this may seem a little redundant, but Mr. Chen has lost just 2 times this spring, once in singles and once in doubles. It hasn’t always been the prettiest or easiest and he’s had to grind out a few 3 setters, but day in and day out Chen has gone out and put 2 points on the board.I don’t see him slowing down now. It looks like he’ll be playing Jonathan Powell, and while Powell has had a fantastic spring himself, I’d be surprised if he is able to take down Chen. Pencil Jeff in for 2 points and let’s move on.
Player to Watch
D3RegionalNEC: Anthony Kanam. #1 doubles. #3 singles. He could win at both, or lose at both, and I think he has to win at least once to give Case a shot. I feel like in most of their close matches this year he’s been one of the longer matches, often going three sets. I wouldn’t be surprised to once again see him in a critical third set, where he’ll surely be looking to get a big win after a few heart breakers to CMU, Wash U, and Kenyon earlier this spring.
NewRegional: Anupreeth Coramutla. I almost went with David Aizenberg here, but I think Preeth’s singles spot is a more important point for Brandeis. Coramutla and Aizenberg are clear favorites at #1 doubles. If you’re going to win a close match, you need to win the matches you’re favored in. Kanam and Powell have been up and down this year at the top spot for Case, and In their last two matches against Wash U and Chicago, they lost 8-3. Coramutla and Aizenberg lost to MIT a couple weeks ago, but that loss came on the heels of a win over Urken/Jiang of Bowdoin, so I’m not worried. In singles, it looks like Preeth will be playing first-year Aaron Umen. Umen is definitely in contention for the dankest kicks in D3, and he has 2 big 3-set wins over Ray Boppana (CMU) this spring, but has been inconsistent for the better part of the year. Look for Coramutla to move Umen around and keep the ball out of his strike zone and play a ton of balls to Umen’s backhand. If Deis takes a doubles lead, look for Coramutla to stretch the lead early. Against a fiery team like Case, you need to try to put them away quickly.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTIONS
NewRegional: Brandeis, 5-3
NE: Brandeis def Case 5-2
D3RegionalNEC: Case 5-4
Keep’m coming.