UAA Round 1 Preview: #3 Wash U vs #6 Carnegie Mellon

D3RegionalNEC: I’m posting NewD3Central’s part for him becuase he wrote it on his phone and emailed it to me, but you better believe I’m leaving all his typos. Enjoy! And also shoutout to D3Northeast, who makes a guest appearance to write about CMU.

NewD3Central: Some people right really bad apology notes that are really just I’m sorry you feel that way ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ notes, but nope – not here. This is my attempt at an ASouth-lite as I write this in my notes app because I don’t have my computer on me and this match is tomorrow.

Background

NewD3Central: Wash U and CMU have played twice this year. Their first match was wild, match of the year wild, and Wash U walked away the victors 5-4 after dropping 1 and 2 doubles. Hillis and Neves won (you’ll see that this is a theme) over Levine and Downing. Kozlowski won his debut indoor singles match at six and then Daniel Li clinched the match sleeve and all over Bopanna. Wash U and CMU has unfinished business and they met at the USTA National Campus to have it out under the sun. Wash U sported new doubles teams and took a 2-1 lead. Again, Neves and Hillis won over Levine and Downing. Just like 1 and 2, 6 won again and can see Sman followed suit eventually leading to a 6-3 Wash U win.

Implications

D3Northeast: CMU: To put it bluntly, we’ve reached the win or go home part of CMU’s season, and given what we saw against Kenyon it’s tough to believe they will be doing anything other than going home. D3AS still keeps CMU in his Pool-C chart because he loves his AS regional teams, but an unbiased and extremely truthful outside observer knows their season has been win UAAs or go home for a few weeks now. Luckily, they’re playing against a team who also could be playing for their season. Yes, as of now Wash U would be in via Pool-C, but a loss to the Tartans opens up a huge can of worms given how the NESCAC tends to beat up on each other. That means CMU won’t be the only tight team out there tomorrow! We know the Tartans have the talent, hell going into the season we thought the top of their lineup was quite possibly the best top-3 in the country! Given their penchant for the dramatic, and that their seniors (Levine, Downing, Arora & Bloem) know that it’s now or never, I think we’ll see a re-energized CMU team on Friday morning. I know how badly D3AS wants to be able to tweet (insert CMU player) SENIOR!

X Factors

D3Northeast: CMU: Daniel Levine. How could it not be Levine? As you all know by now we have had extensive Blogger Group Chat discussions about whether or not Levine is the best player in CMU history (we’re very cool people who do very cool things with our time, thank you). This year has been a tough look for Daniel’s GOAT campaign, but there’s still time to stake that claim. We know he has the talent, and we definitely know he has the willpower. What will we see in what could be his last important match ever in Tartan plaid? Well, we know it won’t be easy. Wash U always plays solid doubles and this year is no exception. With the splitting up of pairs, Levine has been playing with fellow senior Arora recently, and they should be facing Kozlowski/Neves. That Bear pair beat Levine/Downing handily when these two teams played at Indoors back in February, and are currently ranked as the #3 team in the Central. It doesn’t get any easier for Levine after that, as he’ll probably have to do battle with Ethan Hillis, no big deal, just a casual matchup against the best player in the Central and one of the best players in the country. Now, I say probably because last time these two teams played Coach Belmonte swapped Downing and Levine in singles. This didn’t end up working as Wash U took both spots. I expect Levine as the Tartan’s top dog tomorrow but we won’t know for sure until we see the lineups on Friday morning. Even if Levine does play #2 singles, he’ll have to go against Bernardo Neves which in the Florida heat sounds about as fun as sticking your arm into a meat grinder.

How Wash U Can Win

NewD3Central: Wash U, as stated above, has locked 1,2, and 6 singles down against CMU. So, barring an absolute collapse in the shape of a CMU sweep that ménagebetterattennisthanyou of Hillis, Neves, and “6” give Wash U an automatic leg up. Wash U 3.4, and 5 aren’t scrubs either Li, van der Sman, and Krooot. All three are capable of winning their match in straights – of the three, only Kroot is the bettor’s underdog (Safran opponent quotient). Wash U is looking at 4 points in singles, most ways you cut it so they really just have to avoid a sweep and rely on hot handed Hillis and Neves to defeat a slumping Levine and Downing. Wash U is the favorite in this match most ways I look at it because I see them as favorites at three doubles (if it’s Hillis Neves) and then if Levine and Downing remain split up – I believe Wash U can beat the pieces that are better together, while they’re apart. Add that up and I figure Wash U has a 66ish% chance of securing a 2-1 lead with a win at 3 Fosho and something else. Combine that with their three position favorite, I think that Wash U carries a 2-1 lead into a 5-3 decision win.

How CMU Can Win

D3Northeast: How many different ways can I call this team uber talented? They have a ton of seniors with big match experience. They play solid doubles and never seem to give up, even if they end up on the wrong side of a lot of close scores. To bring this back to my area of expertise, CMU is almost the Tufts of the UAA this year. They play everybody close, and have more than enough talent to win the match, but just haven’t been able to get over the hump, and find fresh ways to lose matches each and every time. If they take a doubles lead over Wash U, there are actually multiple paths to victory for the Tartans. They could go the old route and rely on the top of their lineup and their seniors. OR, they could continue banking on their newly reliable depth, Levin/Safran/Gibson have been the most consistent bottom half of a CMU lineup in the past few years. Either way, there are no unwinnable spots for CMU in any match, which will keep them dangerous, at least on paper, until these seniors graduate.  

NewD3Central: Good Question. They’ve shown through both matches that they’re capable of winning four, even five singles points so a 2-1 (seeburger forbid, 3-0) isn’t absolutely necessary. But it’d be nice. I think that it Carnegie wants to win that they need to take a 2-1 lead. I think that 2 doubles is favored spot so it’ll be on 1 or 3 to secure a lead. So in this winning scenario, CMU goes up 2-1 and then obviously the king, the m********** king, Clark Safran wins his match because he’s a lock. So now CMU is up 3-1, hunting…slowly but loudly on the hunt for two more points. 1,2,and 6 have gone Wash U’s way both times this year, but in the postseason at least one of those has to flip. van der Sman has gone three both times and split each way against Bopanna and Levin – if CMU can beat van der Sman, flip one of the 1,2, or 6 singles (I’m picking 6) and then rely on a Safran + 2-1 doubles lead to win the 5-4.

Predictions

NE: After writing about CMU I almost talked myself into it, because I think this team absolutely can win this match, but I’m going Wash U over CMU 5-3.

D3RegionalNEC: Wash U 5-2

newCentral: 5-3 WASH U…I don’t think this will happen, but what if CMU flips 2 of the doubles and senior, CMU GOAT, Levine wins his match en route to a team 5-4 win. And then the 30 for 30 begins as Levine charges through the a wall of eagles 5-4 (Bowdoin energy anyone, Does Levine have the Will of Trinka). Then of course, for the memes and the AUDACITY, CMU upsets the defending champion after a sweep and struggle to secure a Pool A spot. What. Would. Happen. To. Pool C. 🤯 I don’t think is likely, but it can’t not happen and it’d be fun to speak it into existence.

NewD3Central: If I had more time this preview would be better, and done on a computer and not my phone while I sit at a $1 beer night. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

-newCentral – Game of Thrones will take my soul on Sunday, this may be my last article.

Sent from my iPhone