#3 Bowdoin spring break precap
I’m taking a page out of D3AS’ playbook here as I have three major spring breaks to cover this week. Wesleyan, Amherst and Bowdoin have all taken a trip to warmer weather, and all three teams are playing a crazy amount of matches in a short amount of time. Over the past 36 hours I’ve now brought you a precap for each of these three teams, all of whom have something to prove while outside of New England. First up, cool off with a refreshing swig of Kool-Aid as I looked at Wes’ week in Florida. Next up I precapped the Amherst Mammoths, who might or might not come out of this week looking like a title contender. Finally, it’s the team who has actually been to a national championship recently, the Bowdoin Polar Bears.
What we know so far
Results:
#3 Bowdoin def. Chapman 9-0
Lineup:
#1D: Urken/Jiang
#2D: Wang/Zhao
#3D: Patel/Yang
#1 Grant Urken
#2 Jerry Jiang
#3 Oscar Yang
#4 Justin Wang
#5 Justin Patel
#6 Evan Fortier
Takeaways:
- Urken is back! This was expected, but it’s still nice to see Grant’s name back in the lineup after missing almost the entire fall due to injury. Urk has had his share of injury problems over the past two years, so anything new is always concerning. That said, he looked like his old self yesterday, pairing with Jerry for an 8-0 doubles win at #1 and then winning his match routinely in straight sets. JT Wynne will provide a tougher test on Tuesday, and we’ll see just how much rust Urken has to shake against the grinder.
- Jiang/Yang/Wang is an amazing lineup read. Makes me yearn for the old Red Hot Chili Peppers MIT lineups of Zhang, Wang, Ohu, Pang, Bu or something like that. I wonder if any other team in the country can produce three consecutive rhyming names? I leave it up to our resident name-enthusiast, D3RegNE/C to figure it out.
- Fortier must be playing well. There was a lot of competition for the final lineup spot in Brunswick. Carstens, Delman and Zhao were right in the mix with Fortier, which means the freshman must be playing well to edge out all those guys with more experience. He looked good against Chapman on Sunday, but while moving past first match jitters is a thing, I want to see it again. He’ll still be favored against Skid on Tuesday and again against Southwestern on Friday, but I’m looking forward to seeing him play against higher ranked teams in the semis and likely finals of the Stag Hen.
What’s still to come
Tuesday #3 Bowdoin vs #26 Skidmore (1:00 p.m.)
Why it matters for Bowdoin: They got their warm-up match with Chapman, and Skidmore continues that progression for the defending national runners-up. Unlike Wes and Herst, Bowdoin is easing their way towards big matches with a gentle increase in opponent. Skid is better than Chapman, which will lead into the Stag Hen, which will get progressively tougher until its likely culmination with CMS in the finals. A loss to Skid would also be very tough for Pool-C, but that seems unlikely
Why it matters for Skidmore: Any chance to take out a top-5 team is a golden opportunity, especially a top-5 team with as many fresh faces as the Polar Bears. That said, this also has plenty of chances for moral T-Bred victories.
Why Bowdoin should win: Skid is strongest at the top, and that’s exactly where Bowdoin is even stronger. Jiang has a tendency to play close matches, but I’m not worried about him when it matters most. While I’m sure Coach Smith would like his team to have a couple close wins out in California to increase the less-tested players’ confidence, this should be a time when Bowdoin stomps on the throat of a lesser opponent. Take a doubles lead (A Polar Bear sweep is still more likely than a Skidmore 2-1 lead) and keep your foot on the gas.
Key to the match: GRIND. Similar to what Kenyon did against Amherst today, Skidmore needs to just keep applying pressure and hope the untested team cracks. Not that the Thoroughbreds are all that battle-worn at this point, but if Skid took a doubles lead who knows how the young Polar Bears would respond. We won’t know for sure until we see it…
Swing match: Gotta be the #1 singles match, if only because JT Wynne is arguably Skid’s strongest spot. This will be a supposedly healthy Urken’s first real test so I’m excited to see which way it goes.
Final score prediction: Bowdoin def. Skidmore 8-1
Friday: #3 Bowdoin vs STAG HEN
Why it matters for Bowdoin: I’ll try to keep this quick because we’ll have plenty of Stag Hen coverage out later this week. This tournament has been Bowdoin’s coming out party in each of the past few years and they have a title to defend. More importantly, this should continue the progression to more challenging opponents. The possibility of running the 6th street gauntlet, PP in the semifinals and CMS in the finals, and giving Bowdoin their first taste of top-10 teams.
Why it matters for Stag Hen: As Bowdoin is the tournament’s top seed, if anybody were to beat them they would move up in the national rankings and knock off the defending champ. A win over Bowdoin is as good as a win over any team over the past 3+ years.
Why Bowdoin should win: I don’t want to minimize a potential Bowdoin/PP semifinal matchup, because that match would mean a lot to both teams, but the Polar Bears will be HEAVY favorites to get to the finals. From there it’s all about the potential matchup with CMS. It’ll be by far each team’s biggest test so far in 2019, but when you go down the matchups it’s tough to say it’s anything more than a toss-up. Both teams are extremely strong at the top, Bowdoin’s doubles are probably stronger, but CMS’ depth is probably (at this point in the season) more reliable. It should be a fun final!
Key to the weekend: Bowdoin’s depth. Talented? Yes. Tested? No. I’m excited to see how guys like Yang, Wang and Fortier handle their first taste of dual match adversity. How these guys respond will go a long way in determining how Bowdoin does this weekend.
X-Factor: Oscar Yang. Bowdoin’s top freshman appears to be playing #3 singles, which means he’ll likely take on a senior in Octave from PP in the semis and a freshman from CMS in the finals if everything plays out according to seed. Those are going to be very important matches. In addition, Yang is also in the #3 doubles spot with Justin Patel, which should be a strong team. If Yang is good for a couple points per match, Bowdoin will have no trouble, but if he’s not, the Polar Bears could have a tough weekend.
Final score prediction: Bowdoin makes at least the finals of the Stag Hen. Full Stag Hen predictions to come later in the week…
Next Week: #3 Bowdoin vs Babson, #16 Whitman, Trinity Ct, Redlands, #25 Denison
Why it matters for Bowdoin: Because a loss to any one of these teams could be devastating for Bowdoin’s ranking and NCAA hopes.
Why it matters for the field: Let’s see, a huge regional win, a we still belong win, a massive conference upset, a program bounce-back win, and a program on the rise win…respectively.
Why Bowdoin should win: Honestly, because they are a better team than each and everyone of these opponents. They only have to deal with true home court advantage against Redlands, they play a lot of matches in a short amount of time but they usually bring enough guys to rotate (see below), and bc a Bowdoin loss to one of these teams would be the upset of the year.
Key to the match(es): Rotation. This trip is a good time to get the young guys match experience, but that goes for the non starters as well. Urken and Jiang are seniors this year, which means there will be at least two open lineup spots next year. Give guys like Zhao or Delman a chance to prove themselves match-ready against some of these teams as well. I think they must because it’s five matches in three days, and even Coach Smiley Smith isn’t that crazy! Plus it would help avoid…
X-Factor: Fitness/health issues. The only thing I see possibly hurting Bowdoin next week is the Polar Bears falling victim to an injury or health bug. It’s happened before. Remember when Bowdoin could barely field a team due to a team flu bug? Stay rested and hydrated out there Polar Bears, you’re a long ways from home.
Final score prediction(s): Bowdoin loses no more than three total points in these five matches.