Bowdoin vs Wash U – QF Preview
We’re back with our second in-depth QF preview including The Blog’s patented match-by-match breakdown. This quarterfinal is a repeat of last year’s QF when the Polar Bears proved which Bear is best (in 2017), advancing to the semifinals. Much has changed from last year, but less has changed from March, when the Bowdoin again defeated Wash U, this time 7-2 at the Stag-Hen, which means they will be playing on the same courts this time around! However, Wash U’s lineup has changed dramatically since that previous match, which means we have a number of new matchups to explore. NewCentral is along for the ride, and he makes hands down the best Polar Bear reference I have ever seen on this Blog. In addition, for all you gambling folk out there, Slam Tennis has Bowdoin winning 94% of the time, while Texas College Tennis’ algorithm has the Polar Bears winning just more than 69% of the time. Nice!
Slam Tennis Comparison: https://slam.tennis/compare/ncaa3m/701
TX college tennis algorithm: Bowdoin wins 69.4% of the time
#1 doubles: Tercek/Urken (Bowdoin) vs Haugen/Kozlowski (Wash U)
newCentral: Haugen & Kozlowski have won ten of their last 11 matches. Tercek & Urken, the favorites here, have gone 8-4 over that same time frame. Tercek & Urken were shocked by RPI in the sweet sixteen matchup, while Wash U won comfortably over a quality Kenyon 1 doubles team. Haugen & Kozlowski are the hotter team right now, but I think that Tercek & Urken bounce back from their loss last weekend in a dominant performance out at CMS. Bowdoin simply does everything that Wash U can but bigger: the serves, returns, etc. I think that the big boys (the prohibitive individual tournament favorites) win this match. Tercek & Urken haven’t lost back to back matches since: 4.29.2017 – I’m going with the favorites: Bowdoin 8-5
NE: That’s an amazing stat, so I’m going to repeat it. Tercek and Urken have not lost back to back matches since April…OF 2017! When these two are on, there is simply no team better. Their serves are massive and they both smoke returns from their respective sides, especially if they’re pulled out wide. Plus, the way they walk around the court, it’s really like their bodies have recently been stretched and they are uncomfortable with their size. Hulk away, Polar Bears, and do your thing. Bowdoin, 8-6.
#2 doubles: Jiang/Wolfe (Bowdoin) vs Neves/Vishnubholta (Wash U)
newCentral: One of the rematch-matches from Bowdoin and WashU’s early season match up features a must-win for Wash U if they hope to upset the Polar Bears. Bowdoin won this matchup 8-6 last time, and the erratic play of Wash U makes me feel like that it’ll follow a similar script. Bowdoin 8-4
NE: As much as I love Bowdoin’s top duo, this is probably my favorite of the Bowdoin teams. Neither is nearly as intimidating in stature, but they are so solid, return so well, and play the big points with fire when they have to do so. This duo lost to Bush/Kroot in last year’s QF, but as my cycloptic Central colleague pointed out, they did beat this same duo earlier this year. Tough for me to go against Bowdoin if this one stays close. Bowdoin 9-8 (4).
#3 doubles: Roddy/Zhao (Bowdoin) vs Kroot/Wu (Wash U)
newCentral: Bowdoin brings in a seasoned, veteran doubles pairing while Wash U brings a relatively new team that only has two matches under their belt (both wins). This is Wash U’s best shot at a doubles point. Kroot paired with Haugen to defeat this team 8-6 in the regular season, and while Wu and Haugen bring different qualities to the doubles court I think the difference factor will remain JJ Kroot. If Kroot can get loud, aggressive, and blanket the net then I think the lefty will take a point from Bowdoin keeping Wash U’s hopes alive. Wash U 8-6
NE: While Wash U’s team may be new, but actually so is this Bowdoin team. Coach Smiths swapped in Zhao for Patel at #3 dubs at the end of April, and he and Roddy have been playing pretty well since then. The Bowdoin freshman does have some power, and he and Roddy compliment each other nicely. However, a freshman in his first big NCAA Tournament match is always something to keep an eye on. I think this one stays close as well. Bowdoin, 8-6.
#1 singles: Grant Urken (Bowdoin) vs Johnny Wu (Wash U)
newCentral: I think that Urken’s game is too big for Wu to contain without a little assistance from Urken himself. Wu’s going to need the elements, the fluffy balls, and some loooooooong points to all be in his favor in order to defeat Urken. Urken won this matchup with relative ease (I mean as easy as a Wu match can be) last time. I think that Urken prevents this from becoming an ordeal and wins in straight sets. Bowdoin: 6-2, 6-3
NE: Urken won this matchup earlier in the year without too much trouble. However, this could be Wu’s last team match, and while he always gives 110%, I believe he will come out with 130% in this match, and will be able to stave off the elimination until after the team match is finished. That being said, if Urken is playing his best tennis, he should be able to beat Wu without too much trouble, as he can simply overpower him with his rocket of a forehand. Bowdoin leads, 6-3, 5-3.
#2 singles: Luke Tercek (Bowdoin) vs Bernardo Neves (Wash U)
newCentral: The serve and volley specialist dusted Wash U’s freshman when the last played, but unlucky for the Polar Bear he drew one of the central’s best: Bernardo Neves. Neves has been nearly unstoppable (1 loss to Chua in a 10 pt) this season, and I think that his grindy ways will make for a great contest with the charging mountain of Tercek. The contrast in styles will make for some creative and interesting points, and in those cat-and-mouse struggles I’m gonna go with the groundstroke maestro: Neves. Wash U: 5-7, 6-3, 6-3
NE: This is probably the best matchup of the day, and one I wouldn’t mind seeing again in the singles draw at NCAAs a few days later. While we knew Tercek would be one of the best #2’s in the country this spring (he hasn’t disappointed), Neves started the year far further down the lineup, working his way up with aplomb. This is an interesting matchup in style, but if Tercek is content to grind from the baseline instead of taking the net, we are going to get a very long match. Wash U leads, 4-6, 6-3, 1-0.
#3 singles: Kyle Wolfe (Bowdoin) vs Ben van der Sman (Wash U)
newCentral: van der Sman didn’t have his best outing last time against Bowdoin, but he finds himself at 3 singles for the rematch…Unfortunately it’s against Kyle Wolfe (same climb, different mountain I guess) who has spent the past month undefeated over: Williams, Bates, Tufts, Wesleyan x 2, and Middlebury. I think Wolfe embodies Iorek Byrnison here and gets the Polar Bears another point – he’s just on another level than van der Sman right now. Bowdoin: 6-1, 6-1
NE: We all know that van der Sman is talented, but to me this is one of the biggest mismatches in the singles lineup. Wolfe’s game matches up so well with the Wash U freshman, and while I don’t know about 1&1, I think he should be able to outlast him without too much trouble. Bowdoin 6-3, 6-2.
#4 singles: Jerry Jiang (Bowdoin) vs Daniel Li (Wash U)
newCentral: Daniel Li has recently been promoted back up to 4 singles after a successful stint at 5 and 6. Haugen has nestled in at five pushing Li up here, unfortunately. Li, the second starting freshman on the team, will find a similar uphill climb to his fellow freshmen and I think his result will be similar. Jiang, like Wolfe, is one ball better than their Wash U opponent. Bowdoin: 4-6, 6-0, 6-1
NE: Both guys have the ability to beat players well above the #4 level, but both guys also have their off days. In a battle of who can play the more consistent tennis, I’ll take time to beat both players. Wash U leads, 6-4, 2-5.
#5 singles: Gil Roddy (Bowdoin) vs Jason Haugen (Wash U)
newCentral: Haugen’s return to singles has been less than stellar. He began at four but now finds himself at a more comfortable five (a new trend for injured senior superstars, maybe?). Haugen eclipsed 100 wins earlier this year, but I don’t think he’ll be adding another here. Haugen struggled against top-20 4 singles players, and while Roddy has a 5 by his name his results – especially this past two months – show that he’d be a top tier 1-3 on a lot of top 20 teams. The Polar Bears from 3-5 singles will all appear like Iorek Byrnison until their semis. Bowdoin: 7-6(4), 6-2
NE: Iorek Brynison, now that’s simply an outstanding reference. To dig ourselves one step farther down into this dark and nerdy grave, I will now only refer to Bowdoin as the panserbjørne on social media. You all know my feelings on Roddy by now. If David Liu weren’t playing 5 for Chicago, Roddy would be my vote for best #5 in the country without even thinking about it. The Bowdoin senior has clinched a national title, and all he does is win. Haugen is a good story, but he’s struggled in his return. Bowdoin 6-3, 6-3.
#6 singles: Justin Patel (Bowdoin) vs J.J. Kroot (Wash U)
newCentral: Kroot has shown that he has the goods to compete for a national title at the 6 spot. His performance at UAAs proves that. I think that Kroot will be a spark plug for Wash U, especially if they win at 3 doubles #momentum, and should follow his wide serve on the ad-side all the way to a double-W day. Wash U: 7-6 (6), 1-6, 6-3
NE: Patel beat Mark Wu the last time these two teams played, but he now gets a tougher opponent in the lefty Kroot. At the beginning of the year, I would have told you Kroot at 6 was just unfair, but Patel has been one of the best out there, and Kroot has struggled more than anticipated this spring. Given my doubles score I don’t think this one finishes, but I like Patel to win it if necessary. Bowdoin leads 7-5, 2-3.
MATCH PREDICTIONS
D3NE: Bowdoin def Wash U 5-0
newD3Central: Bowdoin def Wash U 5-2 (6-3 overall)
AS: Bowdoin def Wash U 5-1
D3RegionalNEC: Bowdoin def Wash U 5-1
DIIIWest: Bowdoin def Wash U 5-1