Middlebury vs Whitman – QF Preview
Happy Thursday, boys and girls! We’ve finished off our QF profiles, and earlier today D3AS gave you his top-35 players of the Elite-8, but now it’s time for what you’ve all been waiting for! Joining me with our first match-by-match breakdown, you know him as the original curmudgeon, Blog Hall-of-Famer D3TennisGuy A.K.A. D3West A.K.A. noted Whitman expert CHB! Thankfully (or perhaps not), he brought a guest analyst along as well…
Slam Tennis Comparison: https://slam.tennis/compare/ncaa3m/703
TX college tennis algorithm: Midd wins 72.7% of the time
#1 doubles: Cuba/Schlanger (Midd) vs Hewlin/Carter (Whitman)
NE: This is a big match right off the bat, because it’s one Whitman pretty much needs to win if they are going to pull off another shocker. This is the strongest spot in either doubles lineup, but the Panthers have the edge at each of the other two spots. CHB made the claim in the group chat that Whitman should be favored in this match, before walking it back to “a push.” THEN HE WANTED ODDS ON A PUSH. I do love a senior doubles team, but there is a reason Cuba/Schlanger are the #1 doubles team in the NE. Midd, 9-8 (3).
CHB: To clarify, the statement I made was “Midd is favored at every position except maybe #1 doubles.” This guy up here clarified that Cuba/Schlanger were the #1 team in the NE. At any rate, NE was unwilling to put his money where his mouth is, and I still maintain that Hewlin and Carter have been getting it done for Whitman all season. Not only did they finish 3rd at ITAs, but they’ve notched wins over Boise State, Gonzaga, Idaho, Amherst, and (most recently) GAC this Spring. I agree completely that it’s pretty much a must-win for the Blues, and that it should be an absolute barnburner. WC 9-8 (11)
#2 doubles: De Quant/Farrell (Midd) vs Hwang/Fennessey (Whitman)
NE: Farrell and de Quant are two of the most talented singles players in the country, but that doesn’t always make for a good doubles team. However, in this case, they do compliment each other and have had a very successful season. This is probably Whitman’s weakest spot and I think the experience of the Midd team takes over. Midd 8-4.
CHB: Despite coming off a loss to JHU, De Quant and Farrell have been one of the more dominant #2 doubles teams over the latter part of the spring. Hwang and Fennessey play fundamentally sound doubles, but Whitman has been looking for an answer at #2 all season and hasn’t found it. Midd 8-2
#3 doubles: Martin/van der Geest (Midd) vs Friedman/Kirsh (Whitman)
NE: Another spot that Whitman probably has to win, as this is likely Midd’s weakest doubles spot. That being said, they are quietly 10-2 in the past month including two wins over Bowdoin, a win over Emory, and an 8-2 win over Amherst. While I don’t like picking doubles sweeps, especially at this stage of the game, I like the Panthers at every spot so that’s exactly what I’m doing. Midd 8-5.
CHB: If Whitman is going to pull off the upset, they’re going to need a doubles lead. And if they’re going to get a doubles lead, they’re going to need a win at #3, where Middlebury is most vulnerable. The Kirsh/Friedman duo is relatively new and not nearly as accomplished as their opponents, but if their returns can get hot, they can be dangerous. My heart wants Whitman, but my brain said Midd 8-6.
#1 singles: Lubo Cuba (Midd – 12.85 UTR) vs Zach Hewlin (Whitman – 12.16 UTR)
NE: A battle of All-Americans to kick of singles and this is yet another spot that Whitman probably needs to win if the Blues are going to make it to the Semifinals. Cuba hasn’t been the world beater that he was last year, but he also played his best tennis at the very end of last season. One thing to point out, Cuba has started slow many different times this year. If Midd does get the dubs sweep, I find it hard to believe this one will finish. Whitman leads 7-6 (4), 1-4
Stephen A. Smith: SOME PEOPLE MIGHT SAY… ‘OH, HEWLIN IS GONNA WIN. HE MADE IT TO THE NCAA SEMIFINALS. HE’S A SENIOR’… WELL THAT’S CUTE. CLEARLY… CLEARLY! THEY WEREN’T PAYING ATTENTION WHEN CUBA WON THE N. C. A. A. TITLE WITHOUT DROPPING A SET. I’M SORRY IF I OFFENDED YOU, BUT I’M GOING WITH CUBA… ROUTINE! 6-4, 6-4
#2 singles: Noah Farrell (Midd – 12.66 UTR) vs Ben Kirsh (Whitman – 12.27 UTR)
NE: Kirsh is good. He has a good chance at being great. However Farrell is already there. Given his propensity to play some longer points I’m not convinced this one is going to end, but it could get close. Midd, 6-3, 5-2.
Stephen A. Smith: BEN KIRSH IS A GOOD KID WHO I LIKE VERY MUCH BOTH PERSONALLY AND PROFESSIONALLY, BUT NOAH FARRELL IS AN ITA NATIONAL CHAMPION WHO KNOWS HOW TO RUN KIRSH RAGGED. YOUNG BLOOD ABOUT TO BE TAKEN TO CHURCH. FARRELL 6-3, 6-1.
#3 singles: William de Quant (Midd – 12.63 UTR) vs Gary Ho (Whitman – 12.01 UTR)
NE: Here’s where we start getting to Midd’s biggest advantages. The middle of their lineup is so tough. Senior? Check. NCAA experience? Check. All American? Check. Gary does check some of those same boxes, but WDQ should be a pretty big favorite here. Midd, 6-3, 6-2.
CHB: You gotta go with de Quant in this battle of seniors. Ho has quietly put together a very solid year at #3 singles, but he’s really struggled against the better teams. Middlebury is one of the better teams, and de Quant is one of the better players. Among other advantages, de Quant will also have the experience of four consecutive final fours on his side. De Quant 6-4, 6-3.
#4 singles: Kyle Schlanger (Midd – 12.71 UTR) vs Daniel Foster (Whitman – 11.49 UTR)
NE: Schlanger is probably the strongest #4 left in the tournament at this point (check back for a strength of singles article coming over the weekend). He was top-8 in the region at one point this year, and is justly playing #4. That’s not fair. Foster might even be a better matchup here as Carter’s playing style could keep him close but also could send him to a very rough matchup. Either way, I like Schlanger big here. Midd, 6-4, 6-0.
CHB: We don’t know if Carter will be able to get back on the singles court in time for nationals, but assuming Foster gets bumped to #4 singles, he’s outmatched against Schlanger. Another senior, Schlanger had spring wins against some of the best #2’s in the country (Finkelman and Farrell), and he’s been to four consecutive Final Fours. Foster is very steady with a solid serve, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough here. Schlanger 7-5, 2-0 unf.
#5 singles: Nate Eazor (Midd – 12.12 UTR) vs Chase Friedman (Whitman – 10.75 UTR)
NE: Finally, somebody for Midd who hasn’t played in at least one Final-Four. Eazor and Xiao are unproven commodities for the Panthers, and also represent their weakest singles spots. Whitman would need at least one point from these two spots. Given Friedman’s flare for the dramatic, it could be here, but Eazor also plays a very grinding style of baseline game that could cause Friedman to cramp up by the end of a big match. This one reeks of unfinished. Midd 6-4, 2-4.
CHB: Again, these individual matchups are irrelevant if Carter plays, but if Whitman were to pull off an upset, it would definitely involve a win at #5 singles. If Friedman can stay on his feet, he’s as good off the ground as anyone, and his solid returns might be enough to rattle the frosh. Even so, I think Midd will be leading when this one is called, 7-6 (2), 0-1 unf.
#6 singles: Andre Xiao (Midd – 12.19 UTR) vs Alex Hwang (Whitman – 11.17 UTR)
NE: As I said with Eazor, this is another unproven spot for the Panthers. There was some debate between the bloggers about whether TVG or Xiao should start at 6, but I think this is the right choice. A win for Xiao might propel him onto what we all know he is capable of in the later rounds of the tournament. However, another match hanging in the balance seems more likely. Midd leads 7-5, 4-1.
CHB: A Whitman win would also involve a victory over Xiao, who recently had a string of 4-straight losses (2 in 10-point tiebreakers). I love the way this freshman handles himself, and I think he’ll be a big leader for Midd in the future. With that in mind, what do we know about Alex Hwang? Well, he makes a mean apple crumble and he came off the bench to score a huge win over GAC for Whitman at #6 singles. He also beat Bowdoin’s Tristan Young this season. Not bad. I’ll call it a tie. 6-4, 3-6, 0-0 unf
MATCH PREDICTIONS
D3NE: Middlebury def Whitman 5-0
Stephen A. Smith: LOOK, IT HURTS ME TO SAY THIS BECAUSE COACH NORTHAM IS A DEAR, DEAR FRIEND OF MINE. I’VE GOT NOTHING BUT LOVE FOR HIM. FUTURE HALL OF FAMER. I’M GOING TO NAME MY FIRST BORN SON AFTER HIM. BUT IT IS ASININE, ASITEN, ASI 18 THROUGH 21, TO THINK THAT WHITMAN IS GOING TO GO TO CLAREMONT AND BEAT A TEAM WHO HAS BEEN TO THE FINAL FOUR. FOUR. TIMES. IN. A ROW. CLEARLY! MIDDLEBURY DEF. WHITMAN 5-1
DIIIWest: Middlebury def Whitman 5-1
D3AS: Middlebury def. Whitman 5-1
D3Regional: Middlebury def. Whitman 5-1
D3RegionalNEC: Middlebury def Whitman 5-0
D3RegionalAS: Middlebury def Whitman 5-1
newD3Central: Middlebury def Whitman 5-2
This SAS impersonation is BLASPHEMOUS!