Happy Wednesday, boys and girls! While you eagerly await our Wednesday Power Rankings, I thought I would take a quick look at the Individual rankings in the NE and give my best forecast for NCAAs. There doesn’t appear to be nearly as much drama this year as in years past, but there are at least 10 players vying for 7 locked spots and then a few wild cards. In my totally 100% unbiased state, I think all 10 guys should get in. However, we will be back to look at wild card blind resumes a little bit closer to the release date (Wednesday, 5/9). With apologies to Steven Koulouris, Kyle Wolfe and Boris Sorkin who just missed the cut, I believe that only the 10 singles players listed below have a shot at individual NCAAs.
BRIAN GRODECKI (Williams)
In-region wins: #2, #3, #4, #5 #8 (fall), #9 (fall), #10 (fall), #12 (fall)
In region losses: NONE!
Out-of-region wins: #2 (AS), #5 (West)
Out-of-region losses: #1 (AS), #1 (West), #2 (West), #10 (Central)
Matches remaining: BG will probably matchup with Cuba in the semis, with possibly a being a seed at NCAAs being on the line. However, even with a loss BG probably still deserves it!
VERDICT: LOCK HIM IN! BG has been the best player in the region for this entire year, and should be seeded at Individuals even with a loss this weekend.
STEVEN CHEN (Wesleyan)
In-region wins: #3, #5, #6 #25 (fall)
In region losses: #1, #4, #9 (fall), #9 (fall)
Out-of-region wins: #2 (AS) #2 (Central), #6 (AS), #9 (West)
Out-of-region losses: #1 (AS) #1 (West),
Matches remaining: A rematch with Wei in the NESCAC quarterfinals. A loss shouldn’t hurt Chen very much. If Wes gets by Amherst, he will get another shot at Urken and a chance to avenge a recent loss. Even if he goes 0-2, Chen should still be a lock.
VERDICT: LOCK HIM IN! The Cardinal senior has had another excellent season, and will be looking to win a match at NCAAs for the 3rd consecutive year.
LUBOMIR CUBA (Middlebury)
In-region wins: #4 #6, #6 (fall), #7 (fall), #13 #20 (fall), #22
In region losses: #1, #2, #5, #8 (fall)
Out-of-region wins: #2 (AS), #2 (West), #3 (West)
Out-of-region losses: #1 (West)
Matches remaining: #6 Ben Rosen (Bates) NESCAC quarterfinals, and if they win that another shot at #1 Brian Grodecki (Williams) in the semis.
VERDICT: LOCK HIM IN! Cuba will be considered a front-runner to defend his title by a lot of bracket makers when we get to that point.
GRANT URKEN (Bowdoin)
In-region wins: #2, #12
In region losses: #1, #5, #12 (fall, retired)
Out-of-region wins: #1 (West), #1 (AS), #2 (Central), #10 (Central), #22 (Central)
Out-of-region losses: #4 (West)
Matches remaining: The NESCAC SF matchup will either be against Chen or Wei, so nothing to hurt Urk there. If Bowdoin makes the finals, he will likely get Cuba or Grodecki. Basically a bunch of chances to move up without much room to move down.
VERDICT: LOCK HIM IN! The injury cost him time, but the out-of-region wins are just so strong. Couple those with his recent win over Chen and Urken is good to go.
SEAN WEI (Amherst)
In-region wins: #3, #4, #6 (fall), #11 (fall), #13, #22
In region losses: #1, #2, #6, #8 (fall), #8 (fall)
Out-of-region wins: #2 (AS), #2 (Central), #3 (Central), #4 (West), #22 (Central)
Out-of-region losses: #1 (AS), #1 (West)
Matches remaining: A NESCAC QF with Chen gives Wei a chance at redemption, and a hypothetical semifinal matchup with Urken is another rematch. Neither match can hurt Wei at this point.
VERDICT: LOCK HIM IN! My leading candidate for NE freshman of the year should be into NCAAs without any question.
BEN ROSEN (Bates)
In-region wins: #5, #10 (fall), #22, #25 (fall)
In region losses: #2, #3, #3 (fall), #5 (fall), #11 (fall)
Out-of-region wins: #7 (AS), #11 (AS)
Out-of-region losses: #2 (West)
Matches remaining: It should be Cuba at #1 in the NESCAC quarterfinal, but if the Panthers sweep it could be Farrell which would be a no-win scenario for Rosen. The Bobcats are BIG underdogs against Midd on Friday, but if they do pull the upset, Rosen would match up against Grodecki on Saturday.
VERDICT: Lock him in? His in-region wins are little less polished than some of the guys above him, but Rosen’s win over Wei coupled with only losing to top-5 players all year should be enough to get the senior in, which he 100% deserves. Rosen might not fit on the same “LOCK HIM IN!” tier as some of the guys above him, but he should also be well ahead of the rest of the guys on this list.
#7 LUKE TERCEK (Bowdoin)
In-region wins: #8, #9, #13, #22
In region losses: #3, #10, NR (fall and avenged in the spring)
Out-of-region wins: #7 (West), #11 (West) #14 (Central), #25 (Central)
Out-of-region losses: #5 (Central), #8 (AS)
Matches remaining: Probably in? Bowdoin plays the winner of the Amherst/Wesleyan QF matchup, so Tercek will either get Finkelman or Ma in the semis. The finals would likely either bring Lil Barr or Farrell, so some big matches left to be played for the Polar Bear senior.
VERDICT: Should be in. A loss to Finkelman and/or Farrell would hurt at NESCACs, but a win over either should be enough. The win over Katzman is good for wild-card play, but the loss to Downing hurts for the same reasons.
#8 ANDREW FINKELMAN (Wesleyan)
In-region wins: #3 (fall), #5 (fall), #5 (fall), #10, #20 (fall), #24
In region losses: #1 (fall), #7, #9, #25 (fall)
Out-of-region wins: #14 (Central), #22 (West)
Out-of-region losses: #4 (AS) #7 (West), #8 (AS)
Matches remaining: Finkelman should matchup with unranked Kevin Ma in the quarterfinals, which is a match he cannot lose (though Ma deserves to be ranked at this point). If Wes gets by their hosts, he will have another shot at Tercek which could go a long ways.
VERDICT: TBD. Like his team, Fink has to beat Amherst if he wants to go to NCAAs. However, unlike his team one win in the conference tournament might be enough to get him an at-large berth.
#9 AUSTIN BARR (Williams)
In-region wins: #2 (fall), #2 (fall), #8, #12, #20 (fall) #24
In region losses: #1 (fall), #7, #10, NR
Out-of-region wins: #7 (West), #16 (West)
Out-of-region losses: #5 (Central)
Matches remaining: A likely matchup with Noah Farrell looms in the NESCAC semis, where the loser is likely out of the running. However, if Barr loses but the team wins, a win over Tercek or Finkelman (probably not Ma) in the finals could end up putting all three NE guys into contention for wild-cards.
VERDICT: TBD. Like Finkelman, Barr is still riding his great fall to a high ranking. Depending on how late season play is weighted will either help or hurt Lil Barr. His unranked loss came after the most recent set of rankings, meaning I think right now he’s on the outside looking in, but a win over Farrell might keep him in the #9 spot which could be good enough for a wild-card.
#10 NOAH FARRELL (Middlebury)
In-region wins: #7, #9, #11
In region losses: #1 (fall), #6 (fall), #8, #18, #24, #25 (fall), NR (retired)
Out-of-region wins: #4 (AS)
Out-of-region losses: none
Matches remaining: A must-win matchup with unranked Quijano from Bates, and then likely another shot at Lil’ Barr, where the loser is very likely taken out of consideration. If they win that match, another shot at Tercek and Bowdoin.
VERDICT: TBD, but outside looking in. Look, we all know how good Noah is. That being said, his resume does not deserve to make NCAAs at this point. He doesn’t have enough good wins to counteract all the losses. However, going 3-0 through the NESCAC tournament could change my mind, as late season play should be and is considered.
What do you think? Who should be in/out? I will try to be back for a look at doubles at some point before the individual selections are released next Wednesday. Check back later today for our weekly Power Rankings and tonight for an Ojai recap!