Pool C Update #3 – Jumbolaya

A! SOUTH! A! SOUTH! A! SOUTH! I hear the people chanting my name, as I enter into another journey into the Pool C abyss. Things have happened, ASouth, and things need to be blogged about. While my bumbling team wades their way through the molasses that is a Sibling Article, coming out later today, I get to do the straight forward stuff. As in, I get to try and figure out who’s going to make it into the NCAA Tournament via Pool C. Always a tough conversation, always a long conversation, and always a conversation that brings the viewers to the site we all know as The Blog.

If you’re looking for NCAA Rules, but slightly outdated, please click the link in BLOGROLL to the top left of the site. While your arrow is hovering around there, feel free to press the Paypal Donation box too. I hear it brings good luck to all those who click on it.

Reminder: There are 6 Pool C Spots this year, with only one Pool B spot. I hear this sentence in my nightmares. Yet somehow, I find myself always wanting to repeat it. Below, see my famous table of who’s played who.

The previous Pool C article is here, as well as the Bracketology that was posted last week. Let’s get to my favorite part of these articles, messing around in Excel with tables and pictures.

Recent Updates

Williams def. Middlebury 5-4

Williams def. Wesleyan 8-1

This was obviously a really good weekend for Williams, and they have essentially locked in their Pool C berth with wins over both Middlebury and Wesleyan this past weekend. Their remaining schedule features Tufts, Bowdoin, Amherst, and the NESCAC tournament and they should be favorites in 2 of those matches + whoever they play in the first round of NESCACs. Williams can afford a loss to Bowdoin and a loss in the NESCAC Tournament and still make it in, but this would dramatically affect their seeding at NCAAs, so they’ve obviously got a lot of motivation to win out.

Middlebury def. Tufts 6-3

Williams def. Middlebury 5-4

Middlebury escaped the weekend with a close win against Tufts, which allows Middlebury to say they are currently in the Pool C qualifiers. Currently, Midd has no wins within the top 11 teams, putting them in a vulnerable position when it comes to Pool C. They have upcoming matches against Bowdoin and Emory where they presumably will be underdogs, but with the Panthers talent they absolutely could win one of those and make things real easy for themselves rest of the year. Right now, Middlebury is not comfortable, but that’s more of a testament to their schedule than anything else.

In regards to Tufts, they are a very interesting case. Tufts is dangerous for the opposite reasons – they have no losses outside the top 6 but also don’t have any wins within the top 20. Tufts lost a huge chance to pick up Pool C inside track against Middlebury this weekend (down 4-3 with two splits remaining) and have to be kicking themselves. This would have put Tufts into the last spot in Pool C had they won it. They have a few chances remaining on the schedule which we will get to later.

Williams def. Wesleyan 8-1

Back to the Williams/Wesleyan match, Wesleyan got smoked on Williams home courts in a match some of us might have seen coming. Wesleyan has a lot of losses and currently no top 15 wins at the moment and things are looking worse and worse. They still have multiple ranked matches left on the schedule but have backed themselves into a small corner when it comes to playoff hopes.

Amherst def. Bates 5-4

Bowdoin def. Amherst 8-1

Amherst played this weekend for the first time since a couple of departures from their team, and showed us that their season will continue to be a story. Amherst just survived Bates by the hair of a third set victory at the bottom of the lineup. Given that Bates has not looked good at all this year, this is somewhat worrying. Amherst then went to Bowdoin where they got smacked by the Polar Bears. Not going to look too much into this as Bowdoin is probably playing the best of any team in the nation right now, but it seems to be clear where Amherst stands right now – they are still a talented team but one that is going to have it’s ups and downs later on this season.

CMU def. Mary Washington 6-3

This was a relatively calm weekend for CMU, but it did have a quick scare in Fredericksburg as the Tartans went down 2-1 in doubles to the upstart UMW Eagles. At the end of the day, CMU prevailed 6-3 over their ASouth rival in what ended up to be a result that we expected. CMU notches another win for their resume that now includes 4 top 20 wins.

W2W4 This Weekend

We’re going to take these Pool C updates week by week as it doesn’t make sense to look to far ahead when it comes to Pool C. With so many teams in contention for the final 4 spots (Middlebury, Amherst, CMU, Wash U, Wesleyan, Tufts), we’re talking a lot of updates and a lot of important matches. Let’s take a look at the weekend ahead to see which matches are most important.

Gustavus Adolphus vs. Chicago, Friday 5PM CT

A match between a Pool C contender and a non Pool C contender here, and this match will be previewed by NewD3Central and myself at some point this week. Know that this match is really most important for seeding for NCAAs, which I will get into at a later time.

Bowdoin vs. Middlebury, Saturday 2PM ET

This is another chance on Middlebury’s schedule to notch that big win that they need to lock in a Pool C spot. Middlebury is blessed right now from their 2017 ranking and are currently cruising until they lose to someone below them. With the way they’ve been playing and the craziness of the NESCAC, I would be wary if I were them. This is the type of season changing match for the Panthers that could really start them back on the “national favorites” path. Bowdoin, as I mentioned earlier, is playing better than anyone in the nation right now. Should be a heavyweight battle between these two NESCAC powers this Saturday, with Middlebury gearing up for a big time statement.

Chicago vs. Wash U, Saturday 2PM CT

Again, I will go over this match’s implications with NewD3Central when the Central Weekend Preview comes out. This match is extremely important for seeding but also for Pool C, as a Wash U win over Chicago gives the UAA even more strength over the NESCAC. Chicago did every UAA team a favor by taking out Williams and these types of scenarios may be the deal breaker when it comes down to the Pool C decision making process.

WESLEYAN VS. TUFTS, SATURDAY 10AM ET

Welcome to the biggest match of the weekend. You got that right, in terms of Pool C supremacy there is no match bigger than this one between the Cards and the JUMBOs. If you look at both these teams schedules, you can see that this is both of their opportunities to beat a highly ranked Pool C competitor. Wesleyan has Tufts, Amherst, Midd, and Bowdoin remaining, as well as the NESCAC tournament. Tufts has Wesleyan, Williams, Bates, Bowdoin, and the NESCAC Tournament. Assuming both teams don’t have enough to beat the top of the top (Bowdoin, Williams, Midd), you are talking minimal chances. The winner of this match could be putting themselves one Amherst win away from making the tournament and sneaking in behind CMU and Wash U. The loser of this match is, more or less, out of the running. This is a true playoff match here and anyone that doesn’t believe it doesn’t know about Pool C. D3NE will be previewing as he always does, and you should seriously tune into this Saturday morning match.

CMU vs. Kenyon, Sunday 1PM ET

Another match for CMU this weekend against a top 20 team. They’ll be looking to bolster their resume even further with a quality win. Kenyon is playing very well right now, just ousting Denison by the score of 9-0. CMU needs to watch out for this match as they could really be losing all their momentum with a head-scratching loss here. I don’t think it will happen, obviously, but just a word of warning.

Quick Hits

I’ll quickly provide you with a rundown of your Pool C teams and what they need to happen to make the tournament at the end of the year. I’ll keep it to a sentence or two for each team.

Chicago needs to avoid a crazy upset in the UAA Tournament. With many wins and no bad losses, Chicago basically just needs to beat their first round opponent in UAAs to make it. Losses to GAC and Wash U can be handled.

Williams needs to beat Tufts or Amherst. Judging by their play so far, this should be fairly easy and should give Williams enough resume to make it.

Middlebury needs to beat Wesleyan/Amherst, and win their first round of NESCACs. A win against either the Wesleyan/Amherst duo accompanied by another win over one of those two teams in the first round of NESCACs should give the Panthers enough ammunition to make the tournament.

Amherst needs to beat Wesleyan and win a round at NESCACs. Amherst is riding their wins over CMU and Wash U and have put themselves in solid position to move on. They have to survive with a different team to beat #11 Wesleyan, and probably do so again in NESCACs to be an absolute lock.

CMU needs to beat Kenyon, win a round in UAAs, and either win a match vs. Chicago/Wash U to lock themselves in. If not, they need help. A loss to both Chicago and Wash U at UAAs would put CMU in the last position of Pool C. This means a team like Wesleyan or Tufts could potentially leapfrog them with a big win as well as beating Amherst. Depending on Amherst’s season, they could be knocked out as well.

Wash U needs to beat a top UAA team, or hope for NESCAC regularity. Wash U has three more shots at a big win – against Chicago, against Emory, and against whoever in a UAA 3rd/4th place match. Wins here would basically lock them into the playoffs. Losses, however, would have them hoping Wesleyan or Tufts does not overtake them.

Wesleyan needs to beat Tufts, beat Amherst, and do so again at NESCACs. Losses have piled up for the Cardinals and they are bringing them down. A win against Tufts puts them squarely ahead of the Jumbos and potentially two wins against Amherst (reg, NESCAC) would allow them to jump the Mammoths as well.

Tufts needs to beat Wesleyan, and win against Williams/Bowdoin/first round NESCAC. Tufts has no bad losses so far this year, so they need to absolutely beat Wesleyan to take the #11 ranking from them. From there, they have 3 shots to jump Amherst/CMU/Wash U to take the last Pool C spot. This is doable but will definitely be a challenge. Note that Amherst is hosting the NESCACs this year.

FINAL THOUGHTS

I basically broke down Pool C for you in crazy amounts of depth, once again, so now I’m tired. Look out for the SIblings article later today on National Siblings Day, as well as a release of Power Rankings tomorrow! Things are happening on the Blog with at least one post everyday, which I personally am proud of. Anyways, back to work. ASouth, OUT.