Another few hours, another regional preview. The Blog is absolutely rolling over the past couple days, and we’re well over double digit pieces of content in a 36 hour period. Now we get to what most of the writers believe is the most intriguing regional out there, the Wesleyan regional. The Cards are making their first ever NCAA appearance, after having their best season in program history. The NCAA decided to reward that season by sending the Cards down to Baltimore, where they will be hosted by the Johns Hopkins Blue Jays. Also joining the two favorites are Christopher Newport, John Carroll, Goucher, and Franciscan. What makes this regional so intriguing is that you never know exactly what you are going to get from Hop. Year after year they play their best tennis in May, and Wes has literally zero NCAA experience. While I still believe Wesleyan is the favorite to advance to the quarterfinals, they are also the top seed with the lowest odds (calculated via an age-old Blog algorithm) to get out of their region, and I believe multiple bloggers have Hop coming out of this region.
Wesleyan
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 54%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 74.87
How they got here: With their best regular season in program history! Wesleyan earned the #1 seed at the NESCAC tournament due to their wins over Middlebury, Bowdoin and almost the entire rest of the NESCAC. With the exception of regular season losses to CMS and Amherst, the Cards won every other match they played…until the NESCAC semis when they got beaten soundly by Bowdoin, a team that they had already beaten. Wesleyan earned the #6 overall seed in the bracket, which means they were the 3rd Pool-C team, following Middlebury and Wash U.
Why they’ll win: They don’t have any weaknesses! This team is strong from top to bottom. Chen is one of the country’s best, and the bottom of the lineup featuring Samson, Daniels and THE PRINCE is just as good as any other team out there. They have vastly improved in doubles over the past couple years, and now have strong teams at each of the three spots. Anchored by a senior pair at the top and two teams who rarely lost this year at #2 and #3, the Cards look primed to continue making program history, and advance out of their region for the first time.
How they can be beaten: I just said that Wesleyan is looking to make program history, well they have already done that just by making NCAAs. I don’t think this applies to Wesleyan, but there is the theory that guys who make NCAAs for the first time are “just happy to be there.” If that is the case, then Coach Fried needs to practice it out of them by this weekend, because I can promise you that nobody on the Hop team is “just happy to be there.” Wes does not have the NCAA experience, and we saw what happened against Bowdoin their last time on the court. True, Hop is playing without Buxbaum, but that is an experienced team that knows how to win when it matters most. They have a “Tank N Tree” award named after them for Pete’s sake.
Player to watch: Michael Liu, senior. Liu is the lone starting senior in the singles lineup, and this trip to NCAAs is the true culmination of a lot of work put in over the last four years. He has had his ups and downs this year playing #2, but we know he is capable of beating anybody in the country. In addition, he is part of the senior pairing at #1 doubles (with Jake Roberts). If Wesleyan can get at least one point from Liu in every match it plays, the Cards will be in phenomenal shape, as they are likely stronger at most other spots.
Johns Hopkins
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 42%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 72.83 without Buxbaum
How they got here: Nothing spectacular really. By the way, what’s up fans. I know you haven’t heard from me on the Men’s side in a bit, but that’s cuz I only got two stud teams on the Men’s side and that’s pretty much it. Even UMW isn’t in this year. Enough about me – Hopkins did what they needed to do this year. They shellacked Swarthmore twice this year, both times without Michael Buxbaum. Honestly, point to a match for Hopkins that you didn’t think they were a good team in the past two months. You all forget that they were a freak injury away from beating the #10 team in the nation, Carnegie Mellon. Anyways, they won the Centennial Conference, bruh.
How they could win: #ALLINFORMIKE baby! Hopkins has found a purpose this year in their team hashtag, dedicated to the fallen player I call the MVP. Buxbaum has had a magnificent career but the Jays are going to have to do it without him this year. And honestly, I think they have a good shot. There are a few macro things working in Hopkins favor – first off, they are playing at home, and they can thank Christopher Newport for winning their conference and being far from Wesleyan for that. Secondly, Wesleyan will be participating in their first postseason since Mike Fried took over as Head Coach. People say that they are big time players, but the fact of the matter is there is NOTHING that can prepare you for the pressure of the NCAA Tournament. Hopkins has been there, done that and they have veterans (Dubin, Walsh, Perez) that have been to multiple Elite 8s and almost took out the champion last year.
From a lineup perspective, Hopkins has been playing some good doubles and it’s going to have to start there. A 2-1 lead is necessary, because they have some weak spots in the lineup that probably are not going to win. Dubin at #1 singles is going to have to play lights out. Thygesen at #2 has a shot against a struggling Mike Liu, which should be an interesting match. Some must wins are probably going to be Emerson Walsh at #3 singles and also a guy like David Perez at #4 singles. If this match goes indoors, which it might, Dubin gets a boost. If they win, it’ll be close. I can tell you that much.
Why they will be beaten: Frankly, they are not the better team here. Without Buxbaum, they have a few holes in the lineup against a Wesleyan team that doesn’t have many. They basically need a doubles lead, and doubles is always going to be a toss-up when it comes to good teams. Steven Chen of Wesleyan has been playing so well and Dubin is one of the Hopkins guys that probably is going to have the best chance to win. Hopkins is counting points here and that’s never a good start. The bottom of the lineup has been flip flopped around and honestly, I’m not sure who’s starting down there nor do I have a lot of confidence they can beat the dynamic duo of CD and Hurricane Carter.
Player to watch: Jeremy Dubin. The senior needs to step up here if Hopkins is going to advance to another Elite 8. It may seem lazy to pick the #1 player on the team, but the fact of the matter is Dubin is so boom or bust that he can single handedly take this team to the Elite 8 or he could cause them to lose 5-1 in about 2.5 hours. Dubin has a big game, especially indoors, and he could surprise Chen on the right day. He did the same thing last year surprising Daniel Levine of CMU – so it’s not like he doesn’t have a history of coming up big when it counts.
Christopher Newport
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 3%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 68
How they got here: CNU has had a little bit of a roller coaster of a season. They started off strong taking down what we thought was going to be a dangerous Swarthmore team, but then fell into a slump losing their next 6 nationally ranked matchups. 3 of those losses were 4-5 to fellow Atlantic South teams W&L, NC Wesleyan and UMW. Fortunately for CNU, UMW lost their best player and fell into a downward spiral to end the season. The Captains capitalized and stole the CAC crown, locking in an automatic bid to NCAAs
How they could win: CNU is a team that has the capability to play very big tennis, but can also slump a little bit. If CNU wants to threaten any of these top teams, they will first need to step up in doubles. The Captains need to take 2 out of 3 doubles, then rely on a one-two punch from Reed and Cerny at the top of the singles lineup. Then someone from the bottom, I’d keep my eyes on Dominic Lacombe at 4, will need to seriously step up and pull off a big upset.
Why they will be beaten: CNU is a good team, but doesn’t necessarily have the talent or the matchup advantage to take down these top tier teams. Hopkins showed us this a couple weeks ago with an 8-1 drubbing of the Captains and the only match that CNU won was a retirement from 3rd doubles. You can see the box score here http://static.cnusports.com/custompages/mten/Stats/2016-17/cnumgm21.htm. None of the matches were close and I don’t think that a couple weeks can make that big of a difference.
Player to watch: David Reed is a former NCAA singles qualifier and will be a key to his team’s success in this tournament. If he can go 2-0 against Hopkins then he drastically raises his team’s chances of pulling off the upset, but if he goes 0-2 then you can almost guarantee that the Captains will fall quickly.
John Carroll/Goucher/Franciscan
Odds of making the quarterfinals: <1%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 62 (John Carroll), 59 (Goucher), 51 (Franciscan)
How they got here: These teams won their respective conferences. Nothing fancy, nothing flashy, they got ‘er done.
How this affects your bracket picks: You shouldn’t fret too much over the CNU Franciscan matchup because CNU should handle them fairly quickly. John Carroll and Goucher is a fairly interesting matchup though and could potentially affect your bracket. John Carroll has the higher Power 6 rating and has a better record coming into the tournament. Taking a little bit closer look, they also have a common opponent, SUNY Oneonta. John Carroll convincingly took that match 7-2, while the Goucher Gophers fell 4-5. Based on mutual results and Power 6 rating, I will advise that you pick John Carroll over Goucher, but in reality it doesn’t matter a great deal since the winner will go on to lose to Wesleyan.
Player to watch: Jad Abdul-Aal of John Carroll has put together a pretty good season and has been a staple at the top of the Blue Streaks’ lineup. His last name also reminds me of Paula Abdul.