2017 NCAA Regional Preview: Emory Region

The Emory Region happens to be hosted in Emory this year, after a bit of speculation that it might be held at Washington and Lee.  Emory lucked out by Thomas More winning their conference and got the benefit of that by being able to host.  They deserve it.  Either way, the Emory region has long had a history of having basically no one to challenge the Eagles. This year, not much changes.  The region features 4 ranked teams, with the highest non-Emory team being Sewanee, currently ranked at #22 in the nation.  Rounding out the rest of the field is W&L, NC Wesleyan, and Thomas More, who D3Regional will graciously talk a little bit more about.  Funny thing is that RegAS actually covers 3 of these teams, but he’s off being a scrub, so D3Regional is going to show him the ropes.  D3Regional is the best..

Emory

Odds to make the Quarterfinals: 98%

Power 6 Rating: 78.05 (Manji/Jemison/Bouchet/Josepher/Goodman/Rubinstein

How they got here: Emory’s got one loss on the year to Middlebury and that’s about it.  They breezed through the UAA Tournament and they’ve taken out their rivals from Wash U, Chicago, and CMU a total of 5 times this year.  They have also notched wins against CMS, Amherst, and a ton of other teams, meaning that they’ve beaten almost every other #1 seed this year.  Pretty impressive.  The Eagles have been using their strong top 3 as well as newcomers at the bottom of the lineup to fend off any upsets and their senior captain Aman Manji is leading the charge.  While the Eagles play really strong doubles, they also employ a lineup where almost every doubles team is around the same level.  Emory has had a typical Emory year – now it’s time to see if they are a championship Emory team.

Why they’ll win: I assume we are talking about just in this region, which makes this very easy. Emory is better at every spot than any of the other teams in this region.  While I’m not predicting 5-0s across the board, even though that might easily happen, it’s not going to be close.  Emory has the home court advantage, where they haven’t lost in 10+ years, they have senior leadership, they have a great coach, and they also beat Sewanee 9-0 in the regular season.  

How they can be beaten: In this region, they really can’t.  They’ve proven that they can beat Sewanee 9-0, and they’ve beaten W&L 5-0 as well.  Those are the 2 and 3 seeds in the region.  Only way they lose is if there is some freak accident that happens or something super crazy, like they forfeit matches for whatever reason.  It’s not going to happen.  98% is actually probably way too low.

Sewanee

Odds to make the Quarterfinals: 1.65%

Power 6 Rating: 68

How they got here: Sewanee had a stellar season this year, where they parlayed wins against Stevens, W&L, and Swarthmore to a top 20 ranking for a bit until they fell off because those wins looked a bit worse than we thought they might be.  However, Sewanee did what they needed to do and also ended the year with another SAA Championship, something that has been almost their birthright in my career blogging.  They took out a tricky Rhodes team and also ended up beating an up and coming Millsaps team in the finals, giving them another shot at the boys from Emory here in the NCAA Tournament.  It’s been a great season for the Tigers and it’s good to see them in the top 25.

Why they’ll win: I can’t really see a path for Sewanee to win here, but if they do somehow pull it off, it will start how most upsets go – with a doubles sweep. I don’t think that they have the power to do that against Emory, so let’s focus on their match against W&L which seems a lot more important to them.  Their lineup as switched around since their match against W&L, especially their doubles lineup, so it will be interesting to see what happens here.  They took a doubles lead last time and I think their doubles has gotten stronger since then, with Coach Shackelford putting Avery Schober at #3 doubles to strengthen the bottom of the lineup.  Sewanee has an opportunity to sweep here and they could do it.  The other part where USouth does well is their top 4 guys, specifically Avery Schober and Jack Gray (#3).  Both guys are very strong at their positions and they have advantages there.  From there, Sewanee hopes to steal a match from #4-6 (look out for senior Scott Gallimore) to beat the Generals.

How they can be beaten: The bottom of the lineup for the Tigers is not the strongest, especially when compared against teams like the Generals, and sometimes that comes back to haunt them.  I haven’t seen them play doubles with this lineup against the Generals either, so a 1-2 deficit is not something that is totally out of question here.  Sewanee plays very well with a lead – but they don’t really have the firepower to come back from deficits against teams that are similar to them.  They are also heavily reliant on a few spots in the lineup – specifically their top 3 players.  You get a couple of bad days there and the rest of the Tigers team might not be able to make it up.

Player to Watch: I’d like to say that Jack Gray will be my player to watch for the Tigers.  He’s known for his doubles prowess and will be leaned upon at the #1 spot to take that team over the hump.  But his singles is where things get interesting.  He’s moved up to #3 singles this year and has settled in nicely, but W&L poses a nice challenge for the up and coming sophomore here. If Jack Gray is going, the Tigers are going with him.

Washington and Lee

Odds to make the Quarterfinals:  0.25%

Power 6 Rating: 68

How they got here: Shoutout to the Gennies this year, who have long been one of my favorite teams to cover (this isn’t true, the Gennies always used to give me a hard time). The Generals easily won the ODAC conference as they almost always do, with not much resistance considering they lost 0 matches in the conference tournament.  That’s domination.  Throughout the year, the Generals put a ranking back in front of the name Washington & Lee with wins over Swarthmore and Christopher Newport.  Man, everyone beat Christopher Newport. They did have some disappointing losses such as the 8-1 beatdown at the hands of Mary Washington, but overall the Generals had a year that they can be proud of.

Why they’ll win: The Gennies will go as far as their two senior leaders will take them, ASouth favorite Jordan “Manziel” Krasner and Sir William Bannister.  Together, those two account for 4 points in the Generals lineup (#1 and #2 singles and doubles) and they are the keys to the W&L lineup.  In their win against Swarthmore, the tandem went 3-1.  The Generals will capitalize where you are weak – and that means they will need to win a couple matches at the bottom of the Sewanee lineup, much like they did last time they faced them.  The Generals should be the deeper team here but they would need a doubles lead and then for Bannister to take his match at #2.  With that, they can finish the match at #5 and #6.  Also, don’t forget about March “MAC” Zheng, who will be returning home to the Emory courts in what should be an emotional return.

How they can be beaten: Simply put, the Generals can be beat in the soft underbelly that is the middle of their lineup.  They’ve moved up Zheng to #4, but neither Zheng nor Ely scares the Tigers at #3 and #4.  Krasner is beatable at #1, where he has lost to Schober before, and the Generals don’t really have sweep potential in their doubles lineup.  They are solid, but not overwhelming.  They do a good job of mixing the teams to give themselves a chance at a 2-1 lead but that leaves little margin for error for a bad day by any of their top players.  If the Generals lose a doubles lead, they are facing a real uphill battle and they’d need an upset at #1, #3, or #4.

Player to Watch: I’m going to go with the Englishman Sir William Bannister, who really needs to watch Game of freaking Thrones because his name is so damn good.  Bannister has been the Gennies winningest player this year, and he has a ton of impressive wins over great players.  He took out Andres Carro last time they played Sewanee and will need to do so again.  He also has impressive wins over John Larkin and Chaz Downing, showing that he is a strong #2 on this team.  Watch out for him as he also plays #1 doubles.  Bannister will need to be on his game for the Generals to have a shot at the Iron Throne.

NC Wesleyan

Odds to make the Quarterfinals: .1%

Power 6 Rating: 68

How they got here: NC Wesleyan won its 9th straight USA South tournament with wins over Methodist (9-0) and Averett (6-3). Averett battled pretty well in that finals match with two doubles wins and a win at #2 singles, but NC Wesleyan had the superior depth to get through.

Why they’ll win: NC Wesleyan fell 6-3 in season to Sewanee in what was a pretty tight match,  but unfortunately for the Bishops, they’ll have to take out the Emory Eagles first to have any shot at Sewanee or W&L. The only way NC Wesleyan is going to win this match is if they sweep doubles and then somehow find two singles points. Sikh is having a good year at #1 but I think Aman Manji is just too solid for the big man. I’m having a lot of trouble answering this question.

How they can be beaten: Even if NC Wes manages to take a doubles lead, Emory has the advantage as every singles position. They are playing incredibly well right now after rolling to the UAA title, and on their home courts, I don’t think very many teams in the country can beat them.

Player to Watch: I’ll go with the big man in Sebastian Sikh. The junior from Sweden can hit the cover off the ball, and while Manji is one of the best players in the country, if Sikh can tree for three hours, you never know. Sikh and Ioannis Brokakis should have a decent shot to win in doubles as well.

Thomas More

Odds to make the Quarterfinals: Aliens visit Atlanta and abduct all 4 teams except Thomas More

Power 6 Rating: 45

How they got here: It’s actually a pretty interesting story, to be honest. Grove City entered this year’s PAC Championships as the winner of 26 straight titles. The Presidents’ Athletic Conference plays a very odd nine-flight tournament with 1-6 singles and 1-3 doubles, starting with the quarters at each spot. Each place finish is worth a certain amount of points, and Thomas More trailed Grove City 37-35 after the semis, but won titles at 3rd/4th singles and 1st/2nd doubles to rally for the 45 to 44 win, despite losing 5-4 in season to Grove City. I’ve never seen anything like it!

Why they’ll win: Thomas More has not played a ranked team all season, and they are now taking on a team with a power 6 of 23 points higher than theirs. Thomas More took on Drew University earlier this year and won six games in all of singles. NC Wesleyan is a strong team. Thomas More can win if the NC Wesleyan bus gets lost on the 457 mile drive to Atlanta and doesn’t show up.

How they can be beaten: The highest UTR of any player in the Thomas More starting lineup is Derrick Kwok with an 8.69. The lowest for NC Wesleyan is David Chang with a 10.60. I’ll move on to the next section.

Player to Watch: I’ll go with Cameron Shi, the freshman for the Saints who hails from China. He’s had a nice year at #2 singles and doubles with a win over Grove City and a title in the #2 doubles draw at the PAC Championships and a finals appearance at #2 singles. Will he be taking out Ioannis Brokakis at #2 singles? Probably not, but a man can dream. Go out there and tree!

Thank you D3Regional for helping me out with this preview – and of course, I am the last preview to go out for the quarterfinals.  I can say that I’ve already lost two matches in my bracket (DAMN YOU WHEATON) and there goes my chance at a million dollars from Warren Buffett.  However, maybe I can win $10 off D3Tree because that seems to be pretty easy these days. Anyways, to all the teams that aren’t Emory in this bracket? Welcome to your tape. ASouth, OUT.