Welcome to the rivalry region, boys and girls. The Amherst region is one that a lot of the bloggers are very excited about. It is the region boasting the strongest #2 seed also likely has the weakest #3 seed, but that’s EXACTLY HOW THE DRAW SHOULD WORK! D3Regional will give you his insider info on Wilkes, Yeshiva, Ramapo and Messiah, while I will continue what I’ve been doing since the draw was released about 72 hours ago, salivating over the potential of an Amherst vs. Williams Sweet 16 match. It is widely considered to be the best rivalry across all Division III sports, and is almost certainly a top-3 rivalry in DIII mens tennis. It has all the makings of a huge rivalry. The teams play each other every year, they are geographically close to each other, they both win a lot in the rivalry, and both have won National titles within the past five years. The hypothetical Sweet-16 match between these two would be the biggest match the rivals would have played in a long time, and I personally am extremely excited to see if we get that matchup. Play begins in this region on Thursday afternoon, setting up a potential Amherst/Williams match on Saturday afternoon. The Mammoths will be favored, especially playing the match on their home courts, but the Williams’ confidence levels should be high coming off their big quarterfinal win at NESCACs over Herst.
Amherst
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 63%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 74.14
How they got here: The Mammoths took the penultimate Pool-C spot, by finishing 3rd in the NESCAC during the regular season, and taking a loss to 6th seeded Williams in the NESCAC quarterfinals. Amherst’s best win from the regular season was over Wesleyan, but other than that their best result might have been a 5-4 loss at Emory. If they advance out of this region, Herst would likely get another crack at the Eagles, this time on neutral ground.
Why they’ll win: Their depth. One of the beautiful problems with recruiting so many 4 and 5 stars is that when one isn’t performing, you can stick another guy into the lineup. Neither Kaplan nor Levitin was a starter at the beginning of the year, but both guys have been rocks at the bottom of the lineup when given the opportunity. Yes, they lost to Williams indoors at Williams last weekend, but when the played at Amherst, the Mammoths won the match by a not so close 7-2 score after sweeping doubles. Herst should be favored at 1, 4, 5, and 6 singles against Williams, and also at the bottom of the doubles lineup. Stronger on paper, home court advantage, the Mammoths are the favorites.
How they can be beaten: YOUTH! We’ve said it ad-nauseum this year, but Amherst is crazy-young. Their starting lineup currently features four freshmen, three sophomores, and one senior (who is a doubles specialist). In a close match with the pressure on, we don’t yet know if/how Herst will answer the call. Of those eight guys, only Arnaboldi has even been on a team that made NCAAs. Williams on the other hand has multiple guys who have NCAA experience. In a close match, youth/inexperience yields tight play.
Player(s) to watch: Oscar Burney & Anton Zykov. Both guys were listed in Herst’s NESCAC tournament lineup, but both have been pulled from the singles lineup numerous times over the course of the season. Zykov has struggled mightily this year, but we know just how talented he is. Plus, this could be the last time he ever gets to suit up for Herst. Burney has been a mainstay this spring in the doubles lineup, but hasn’t had the singles success that his fall results suggested might be on the horizon. If either one of these guys plays singles and plays well, it makes Herst even tougher to beat.
Williams
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 36%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 72.98
How they got here: Williams claimed the final Pool-C spot thanks in large part to their win at NESCACs over Amherst. The Ephs also beat PP and Redlands out in Cali, but their season might well have come down to that match with Herst. It was a season-defining win for Williams, who now will likely get another shot at their storied rivals.
How they could win: Follow their own formula. The Ephs took a doubles lead at NESCACs, winning #1 and #2 dubs 8-6 and 8-5. Both Eph teams are very good, and have the potential to win again. That being said, neither are strong favorites, so both matches would be huge either way. In singles, Grodecki and Raghavan have been Williams’ rocks in the heart of the lineup. Both guys won the other day, and both guys won when these two played back in April as well. Williams needs their studs to play like it if they are going to beat Herst for what will be the 2nd time in barely more than a week. In addition, the last time these two played, Rohan Shastri (SENIOR) took down Bessette in 3 sets at the top spot. That was an unexpected (except by those in Williamstown) win for the Ephs, and if they can get it again it would provide a huge boost.
Why they will be beaten: When these two teams played at Amherst, the Ephs fell 7-2. When these two teams played in Williamstown, the Ephs won 5-3. Sadly for Coach Greenberg’s gang, this match is once again being played at Amherst. That in and of itself is crucial, however the forecast for the weekend also calls for rain, which means we could end up back on Amherst’s indoor courts. In addition, Amherst played last week without Gabe Owens in the singles lineup. A fully healthy Owens adds another obstacle for the Ephs, and they can’t really afford any more of those given the struggles from the bottom of their lineup.
Player to watch: Brian Grodecki. We know BG has been a stud for most of the year, but he will be relied on even more than usual to come up with two points in the likely Sweet 16 match vs Herst. If he doesn’t get there, I find it really hard to see how Williams comes up with 5 points (perhaps barring a doubles sweep).
Wilkes/Yeshiva/Ramapo/Messiah
Odds of making the quarterfinals: <1%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 61 (Wilkes), 57 (Yeshiva), 51 (Ramapo), 52 (Messiah)
How they got here:
Wilkes took home the MAC Freedom crown with consecutive 5-0 wins over Desales and Farleigh Dickenson. Yeshiva won the Skyline conference with wins over Mount Saint Mary and Purchase College. Ramapo won the GNAC tournament with easy 5-0 victories over Rutgers-Newark and Johnson & Wales. And lastly, Messian won the MAC Commonwealth tournament with victories Arcadia and Lebanon Valley. All of these tournaments featured just semifinals and finals. Who knew!
How this affects your bracket picks: Wilkes will be taking on Messiah and Yeshiva will take on Ramapo in their respective first rounds. Starting with Wilkes/Messiah, these schools do have one common opponent in Goucher, who Wilkes beat 5-4 and Messiah lost to 7-2. Wilkes has the big UTR advantage and their #1 (Courtney Murphy) just made NCAA’s. Overall, they are the far deeper team and a safe choice. Yeshiva and Ramapo were supposed to play back in March but the match was postponed and never made up, so they will play now instead! These schools have a couple of common opponents in Baruch (Yeshiva won 5-4, Ramapo lost 6-3) and Hunter (Yeshiva won 9-0, Ramapo won 5-4). That swing is enough for me and I’m going Maccabees by a 6-3 score.
Player to watch:
I referenced it earlier but it has to be Courtney Murphy from Wilkes, the four-star sophomore who has had a great year, notching wins over Sebastian Sikh (NC Wes), Mark Fallati (Swat), and Daneil Levine (CMU), with only one loss this season, a three-set one to Michael Rozenvasser of CMU. Murphy’s entire spring season has pretty much been a cakewalk (zero sets lost), and I’d love to see him in a second round clash against Rohan Shastri of Williams.
Murphy lost to Methodist this spring
Good call. That result is not listed on the ITA website which is why I missed it. Either way, still a great season for Murphy.
Murphy was sick as a dog when he played RJ and later that week womped on Sebastian Sikh after recovering. Indeed still a great season for Murphy.