You’re all probably really tired from reading so many posts on the website throughout the day, so I’ll skip the flashy intro. I wrote about Wash U, Kalamazoo, and Kenyon while D3RegionalNEC cohesively broke down Wheaton and Rose-Hulman
Wash U
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 70%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 74
How they got here: Wash U secured one of the first Pool C bids after beating Carnegie Mellon, and Chicago twice late in the season most critically in the UAA semis. The Bears three losses this year have been to tough teams in Emory, CMS, and Chicago.
Why they’ll win: Home Court Advantage. The Bears are an astounding 117-5 at home over the past 13 years. Traditionally, Wash U’s student body has been fantastic supporting athletes, and, who knows, that could be the difference over the weekend. Obviously, regardless of where the matches are being played, Wash U is favored to advance to the Elite 8. They have no losses outside the top 10 this year, and Wash U is just always ready to win in the postseason. Plus, Jason Haugen was in the singles lineup last week against Rose-Hulman, so even if he doesn’t compete on Friday, I have a good feeling we see him in singles on Saturday, making an already good team that much better. This Bears’ squad is so much stronger than when they started the season, and I’m not going to underestimate their abilities. Wash U is primed for a deep NCAA run.
How they can be beaten: Doubles sweep and wins at 1 and 2 singles. On the right day, Wash U is probably the best doubles team in the country. That said, at 1 and 2 doubles, there have been some head-scratching losses, so if they aren’t at performing at the top of their games, I could easily see opposing teams taking 1 and 2. Winning at #3 dubs against Wash U will be much harder, first, because Bernardo Neves and Radha Vishnubhotla have been clutch all season, and next, because the other teams in Wash U’s region aren’t all that deep. In the unlikely event of a sweep, Wash U’s opponents will need to take out Johnny Wu and John Carswell in singles. Carswell is clearly a beast but currently on a five match losing streak. Wu is quite good as well but definitely not favored against Branden Metzler, and Jake Zalenski as well as Justin Ancona could beat him. My sense is that if Wash U plays KZoo in the final, there really isn’t a way I see the Bears losing. However, as I will detail later on, Kenyon is extremely tough in the postseason.
Player to watch: Jeremy Bush. The senior has been a rock this year. At first, I thought Bush wasn’t playing singles because he regressed, but in all actuality, he’s been battling injury. Since his return to the singles lineup in late March, Bush has lost just one match. Plus, I love his doubles game; he’s got great touch at the net.
Kalamazoo
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 6%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 70
How they got here: The Hornets won their 79th conference championship with ease to receive an auto bid to the NCAA tournament. Fun fact from KZoo’s website: Kalamazoo has competed in every NCAA DIII Championship tournament since its inception in 1976.
How they can win: While I can’t really see Kalamazoo taking out Wash U, they definitely have the talent to beat Kenyon for the second time this year. When they played each other in February, the Hornets jumped out to a 2-1 lead, and took big wins at the top and bottom of the singles lineup. Given the way Kenyon has been playing singles in the last month, I think the Hornets need a doubles sweep this time around and rely on wins at 1 and 3 singles. In my opinion, Kalamazoo vs Kenyon should be one of the best round of 32 match in the country.
Why they will be beaten: A bit of inexperience. Take a look at KZoos wins against ranked teams. They’ve all been close, and they’ve mainly been against teams in the 30-40 range nationally. Wash U is a whole other beast that also has deep postseason experience on its side, and aside from #1 singles, the Bears would be heavily favored in every spot. In the round of 32 match, Kenyon will be hungry for revenge.
Player to watch: The legend, Branden Metzler.
Kenyon
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 20%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 71
How they got here: “Upsetting” DePauw in the NCAC tournament final, capturing a Pool A bid. After their early season loss to Kalamazoo, many thought the Lords may potentially lose to Denison or DePauw in the NCAC tournament. They’ve steadily gotten better and are definitely not a team I’d want to face at NCAAs.
How they can win: Singles. While the Lords have struggled in doubles this season, they have gradually improved in singles throughout the year. Now, I’d say they are a top 15 singles team. Everyone from 1-6 has the ability to get big wins; look at how they blasted past Denison and DePauw in singles at the NCAC tourney. Anyway, if Kenyon’s singles gets them through Kalamazoo, they will need at least a 2-1 lead against Wash U and wins at 1, 2, and 4 singles. Jacob Zalenski has been playing out of his mind lately, most recently beat Dan Rodefeld 6-3, 6-0. Nicholas Paolucci’s experience at 1 throughout most of the season will definitely help him at 2, and Austin Diehl has been a stud at 4 over his rookie campaign.
Why they will be beaten: Like I said, doubles has been Kenyon’s achilles heel all season long. If Wash U takes a doubles lead, it will be very tough for the Lords to bounce back.
Player to watch: Jacob Zalenski. The freshman came into Gambier as a high 3-star recruit, and despite some streaky performances early on, he’s come into his own at #1 singles.
Wheaton
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 2%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 65
How they got here: Wheaton won the CCIW, cruising through the regular season and AQ tournament, never losing more than two points in a single match. This is Wheaton’s first trip to the tournament since 2008.
How this affects your bracket picks: One of the best first round matches in the whole tournament, Wheaton’s opener against Rose-Hulman should be a tight encounter, with Wheaton ranked #12 in the region and Rose-Hulman not far behind at #15. The Thunder are pretty top heavy, and Justin Ancona will definitely be favored at #1 singles. Similarly, he and Matt Steiner should win at #1 doubles as well. Wheaton’s #2 Dane Paulsen and #3 Matt Steiner have both also had good seasons and should be favored, though RHIT’s Brandon Benedict and Cam Metzger will not roll over for the Fightin’ Engineers. Down at the lower end of the lineup Wheaton drops off, though they seem to have been winning more matches at 4-6 lately than they were earlier in the season. Overall, I think Wheaton should get by Rose-Hulman thanks to wins at the top and a couple scrapped together victories elsewhere. Beyond that, it would take an unreal upset to top Wash U. I am confident in saying their only chance would be to win at 1-3 singles and 1-2 doubles, and it’s never good to go into a match with that narrow a path to victory. A win at any of those five spots wouldn’t shock me, but wins at all five certainly would.
Player to watch: Dane Paulsen. He’s likely to be at #2 singles and #2 doubles, and in both cases those could be swing matches against Rose-Hulman, How the sophomore does in those spots will be key for Wheaton to advance past round one.
Rose-Hulman
Odds of making the quarterfinals: <1%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 63
How they got here: Rose-Hulman got in via Pool A, winning the HCAC. It was the third year in a row they were unbeaten in conference play.
How this affects your bracket picks: I pretty much broke down their match vs Wheaton above, and while I am picking Wheaton, Rose-Hulman definitely has a shot to win.
Player to watch: Brandon Benedict. The HCAC tournament MVP has had a terrific career in Terre Haute, and it’ll be interesting to see how he finishes his career. As discussed above, his match at #2 singles should be close and would be a big one for RHIT to have in an upset bid. Also, don’t overlook him and Georges Adam at #1 doubles, as I could see them giving the NCAA-qualified pairing of Steiner/Ancona a very hard time.
Wash U’s season/D3 tennis is looking even more impressive after southwest baptist made The semis of the D2 championships yesterday (if you want to talk about unfair draws, take a look at the D2 men’s draw). Wash u beat them 6-3
I think K Zoo and Kenyon will come down to 4 and 5 singles with K Zoo being up 4-3 at that point. Kzoo would get 1 and 3 dubs, 1 and 6 singles leaving Kenyon with 2 dubs, 2 and 3 singles as their three.