Welcome, boys and girls, to the first of our 2017 NCAA regional previews! Over the next few days, all of the writers will be contributing and bringing you in-depth looks at each of the eight NCAA regionals taking place this weekend. The first of these previews features the No. 2 overall seeded Middlebury Panthers, who will be hosting some familiar foes. In the immortal words of the always eloquent Guru, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Last year, Middlebury hosted an NCAA regional and within that region Midd’s main contenders were #2 seeded Skidmore, and #3 seeded TCNJ. The NCAA must agree with the Guru, because Skidmore and TCNJ are once again travelling to scenic Middlebury, VT where they will this year be accompanied by Baruch Bearcats, the Colby-Sawyer Chargers and the Cabrini Cavaliers. D3RegionalNEC has joined me to lend his expertise on TCNJ and the trio of Baruch, Colby-Sawyer, and Cabrini. Please check The Blog later today, as we will have at least two more (and hopefully three) regional previews along with an Individuals update!
Middlebury
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 94%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 76.79
How they got here: Middlebury fell to Bowdoin in the NESCAC tournament finals, but was rewarded for their spectacular regular season where they beat Emory, CMS, and Bowdoin (the other top-4 seeds in the bracket) by earning the top Pool-C spot and the overall #2 seed in the bracket.
Why they’ll win: The UTR is one thing, but Midd plays great doubles, is strong at the top, and has experience at the bottom. They don’t have a glaring weakness, and actually got a great draw with Skidmore, because their strength is stronger than Skidmore’s strength. Cuba is probably the best player in the country, and while Leung is top-10, and maybe even top-5, he will still be an underdog in both singles and doubles. On paper, Midd should be favored at all nine spots against either Skid or TCNJ, and while paper doesn’t win NCAA championships, it usually gets you to the quarterfinals.
How they can be beaten: We just saw the formula from Bowdoin. The Polar Bears took a doubles lead and toughed out three singles wins. Midd has seemed somewhat vulnerable at the bottom of their lineup of late. I think the Schlanger loss to Jiang was more of an aberration than a pattern, but TVG and Jackson have not inspired nearly as much confidence of late. I don’t see it happening, but Midd would most likely be vulnerable through a doubles deficit and then a couple of losses from the bottom of the lineup, coupled maybe with a loss by Derbani who as we all know has a tendency to be a streaky player. Remember, I’m grasping at straws here because I think Midd advances out of this region about 24/25 of the time.
Player to watch: Allen Jackson. Jackson lost to Patel in straight sets at #6 in the NESCAC finals, and was down a set to Jordan Sadowsky against Williams in the semis. He will be HEAVILY favored against either Baruch or Colby Sawyer, and should be favored against Skid, but it would be a good sign for the 9th semester senior to get a couple wins and set his confidence for a hypothetical Quarterfinal match with Chicago.
Skidmore
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 4%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 70.92
How they got here: Skidmore won the Liberty League, defeating Hobart in the tournament finals 5-0. In fact, the Thoroughbreds did not lose more than two points in a conference match all season long, and have now won the Liberty League’s automatic bid to NCAAs for four consecutive years.
How they can win: Jump out to a doubles lead and ride the top and bottom of the lineup. Skid has played well in doubles against top teams at points during this year, taking a 2-1 lead against Wesleyan and being a game or two away from doing the same against Bowdoin, Wash U, and Whitman. If Skid can take a lead, you know Leung will give Cuba everything he has, Wynne and Leaf have come up with a couple big wins for the Thoroughbreds this year, and those happen to be at spots where Midd just lost to Bowdoin as well.
Why they will be beaten: Almost taking a doubles lead doesn’t quite do the same thing as actually taking a doubles lead. If Skid goes down in doubles to the Panthers, it will be close to impossible for them to come back. Midd will be favored at every spot, and in a race to 5 points needing 4 underdogs to win on the same day is beyond improbable. Koulouris and Pickering should be outmatched by De Quant and Derbani at #2 and #2, and these Midd guys (with the exception of Cuba and Jackson) all have the experience of last year. And some even have the experience of the year before that. Skid does not have the experience, as their closest thing to an NCAA upset was a loss to Williams a couple of years ago in a riveting 5-4 match.
Player to watch: I’d be a fool not to say Kai Yuen Leung. There are plenty of guys who have the potential to play with Midd, but Skidmore’s strength for the past couple years has been their ace. Leung will be tested by TCNJ (assuming they get past Cabrini(Note from D3RegionalNEC: This is a very safe assumption!)), but then he will have to match up with arguably the best player in the country. Skid relies on Leung for two tough points in matches against top teams, and if he can deliver here then Skid might just have a shot at the upset.
TCNJ
Odds of making the quarterfinals: 1%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 67
How they got here: TCNJ qualified for the tournament via Pool B, as they are an independent team that does not compete in a conference for tennis. They finished the regular season at 14-3, with losses to Mary Washington, NYU, and Colby, but their win over Kalamazoo easily gave them the resumé to nab one of the two Pool B spots.
How they can win: They’re not going to beat Middlebury, but they do have a shot to surprise Skidmore in the second round if things fall their way. The Lions are a good doubles team and could definitely take a lead against Skidmore, and from there they have solid depth and a couple of senior leaders in Jack August and Mike Stanley that have come up big before. TCNJ is a pretty balanced team that has the potential to win at just about any position, and as they proved against Kalamazoo, they definitely have some upset potential.
Why they will be beaten: TCNJ simply doesn’t have the same level of talent that a powerhouse like Middlebury does. Being a public school in New Jersey means they’re able to recruit well locally, but their recruiting pool is significantly smaller than many other D3 schools. This current squad doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, but they also don’t have any studs either. Without the confidence of being favored at any spot, it’s going to be an uphill battle against the higher ranked teams.
Player to watch: Jack August. The senior has been around for quite a while and has played a solid #2 this year. Look for him to have a good battle with Steven Koulouris of Skidmore in Round Two.
Baruch/Colby-Sawyer/Cabrini
Odds of making the quarterfinals: <1%
Power 6 Rating (Or team UTR): 59 (Baruch), 57 (Colby-Sawyer), 37 (Cabrini)
How they got here: Baruch qualified by winning the CUNYAC, defeating Hunter College 5-1 in the final. Colby-Sawyer won the NAC/NEAC crossover title, beating Penn State Berks 9-0 (I assume that this means these two conferences have their winners play for a Pool A spot?). Cabrini rolled through the CSAC, topping Immaculata 5-0 in the finals.
How this affects your bracket picks: With a shockingly low UTR Power 6 of 37, Cabrini’s only hope against TCNJ, with a power 6 30 points higher, is a severe case of food poisoning. Baruch and Colby-Sawyer on the other hand looks to be much more even match. If you remember, Colby-Sawyer was involved in one of the tournament’s best matches last year, losing an epic to Nichols 7-5 in the third at #1 singles to fall 5-4. This time around, we could be in for another tight one. While UTR gives the nod to Baruch, the player reliabilities are low, as the Bearcats have only played 13 matches thanks to inclement weather and $100/hour indoor court time in NYC. Colby-Sawyer on the other hand is battle test, with 24 matches under their belts, including several against ranked teams and a few 5-4 barnburners. Both teams have very accomplished coaches that I encourage you all to read about on the school websites, but that’s beside the point. Clearly my rambling shows I don’t want to actually make a pick here, but my gut is telling me to go with the Colby-Sawyer Chargers.
Player to watch: Ryan Broderick, Colby-Sawyer. The dude has a camo bucket hat and sunglasses in all his photos, including his roster headshot.
Who won between Colby Sawyer and Baruch? The last tweet I saw was Baruch sweeping dubs.
Signed: Bracket Guru Trainee
Baruch held on and beat the Chargers 5-3