It’s the final week of the pre-NCAA’s season, and that means it’s the SCIAC championships. The conference isn’t quite as strong as it once was, but with three teams in the top 15, it’s still clearly the third strongest conference in the country. Here’s a preview:
Quarterfinals
(1) CMS def. (8) Occidental 5-0 – The Stags have swept just five teams in doubles all season. Occidental is one of those teams. The SCIAC occasionally plays the QF to decision, so I’m assuming that’s what’s happening this year
(2) Redlands def. (7) Caltech 5-0 – Chapman, Cal Lu, and Caltech all went 2-5 in the conference this year, but it looks like Caltech drew the short straw and will play Redlands in the first round. I don’t expect the Dawgs to waste much time advancing to the semis after a very solid Ojai performance.
(3) Pomona-Pitzer def. (6) Chapman 5-0 – PP thoroughly dominated the season meeting on the road despite losing a singles match in a 10-pointer. We’ll see if Yasgoor is back in the lineup after missing the last couple weeks with an injury.
(4) Whittier def. (5) Cal Lu 5-3 – This is clearly the marquee match of the quarterfinal round. The Poets have been a resilient group all season, and have been rewarded with a national ranking. Last time out, the Poets topped the Kingsmen 6-3, so this should be a pretty good match. If the Kingsmen are going to come away with a victory, they’ll need to take a lead in doubles; the onus of responsibility for which will rest on Braaten/Kashani, who feel to Whittier’s #1 duo in the regular season meeting. Another story line will be senior transfer Andrew You’s quest for nationals qualification. After a tough Ojai, he’ll probably need to beat both Braaten and Parodi to make the cut.
Semifinals
(1) CMS def. (4) Whittier 9-0 – Whittier was one of the few teams CMS actually swept this year, and the victory was pretty comprehensive. I think the semifinals will be played to completion, which would help Andrew You’s small chances of making nationals. Nevertheless, I think the newly crowned Ojai champ, Niko Parodi, will take him out once again in straight sets after a CMS doubles sweep, and the Stags will advance to the finals without much drama. It will be interesting to see if Coach Settles has made any changes to the doubles lineup, which, in case you’ve been living under a rock, has not been up to CMS’ usual standard this year.
(3) Pomona-Pitzer def. (2) Redlands 5-4 – To me, this is clearly the match of the tournament, as the Hens will be attempting to avenge an early-season 5-4 loss to the Bulldogs. A lot has changed since then, and I think this will be a helluva match, which will basically swing on whether or not Yasgoor can play and play well. Here are the UTRs with players listed in order of likely lineup spot:
PP: 73.00. Jake Yasgoor (13.24), Graham Maassen (12.05), Antony Bello (11.84), Josh Kim (11.76), Marko Mandic (12.01), Joshua Gearou (12.10)
Redlands: 72.66. Chase Lipscomb (12.43), Parker Wilson (12.56), Joey Dulle (11.90), Jake Ly (12.01), Tom Suchodolski (11.80), Bryant Johnson (11.96)
Doubles:
(1) Dulle/Ly vs. Simonides/Bello
(2) Lipscomb/??? vs. Maassen/Yasgoor
(3) Suchodolski/Wilson vs. Bicks/Mandic
I’ve mentioned this repeatedly, but Pomona-Pitzer’s doubles have not been as good this year as you might expect them to be with four seniors at #1 and #2. Redlands has been more consistent, frequently going up 2-1 and only getting swept once (in particularly devastating fashion against Wesleyan). Be that as it may, Pomona-Pitzer’s ceiling is probably higher. I see Pomona-Pitzer as the clear favorite at #2 (Yasgoor and Maassen won 8-4 last time out) and Redlands as the favorite at #3 (the seniors have lost just one D3 match since St. Patrick’s Day). #1 doubles will be the swing match.
Singles:
As you can see from the UTR’s, the Hens are favored at 1, 5, and 6, while the Dawgs are favored at 2, 3, and 4. One interesting thing to note is that Coach Bickham has gone away from his tendency to shuffle lineups around all season, sticking with his seniors (Yaz, Maassen, Kim, Bello) at the top four positions for pretty much the whole year. On the other side of the courts, Coach Roche has gotten great contributions from his three seniors (Wilson, Ly, and Suchodolski). For one set of seniors, this will be the last big match of their college careers, and it’s times like these that make you wish both teams could win. If that were the case, it wouldn’t be tennis, and we wouldn’t love it so much. As you can see from my prediction, I think the Hens will avenge their loss by taking #1 and #2 doubles to go with #1, #5, and #6 singles in a 5-4 victory. I really do feel Yasgoor will be the lynchpin in this match, however, as I think the Dawgs will be able to win four singles matches without him in the lineup. We’ll just have to wait and see.
The Finals
As I’m sure you could tell from the above paragraph, I’m far from certain about the results of the semifinals, so I will refrain from making a prediction. By way of cautionary tale, I will give eager readers reason to think that the final might not be such a cakewalk for the Stags.
Here is the box score from CMS’ 7-2 victory over Redlands earlier this season. Looks like a pretty routine win. The box score doesn’t mention the point in the match when it was 2-2 and Mork was at 8-8 in the first set tiebreaker while Suchodolski was up 5-2 in the second set. Obviously, the best teams win the big points, and CMS went 3-0 in tie breakers en route to the lopsided win, but you can see how things might have gone differently on another day.
Here is the box score from CMS’ 7-2 victory over Pomona-Pitzer. Here you can pretty clearly see how close it is. Pomona-Pitzer was a tiebreaker away from sweeping doubles, a tiebreaker away from victory at #4 singles (and 6-6 in the tiebreaker), a 15-13 tiebreaker from the first set at #3, and another tiebreaker away from the second at #2. All told, the Stags went 5-0 in breakers. Again, the best teams win the big points, but I shouldn’t need to remind the Stags how things can get pretty hair pretty fast. (In retrospect, that match would make a great beginning to the Doubles Troubles documentary).
Anyways, it wouldn’t be the end of the world if the Stags were to lose. In fact, they would probably end up hosting a region instead of flying to Texas. I’m not saying they should throw the championship, but if they were going to lose a SCIAC match, now would be a good time to do it.