There are a couple NE matches through this week that I was worried might go unnoticed. Only one has any obvious possible Pool-C implications, and that’s only if an upset happens. Neither will likely have strong effects on the underdogs postseason hopes, but they are still interesting matchups, dadgummit. In-state rivalries, a senior day, three teams that start with B. Get excited! However, this is just a mid-week teaser, as we have arguably the most important weekend of NESCAC tennis of the season still ahead of us. Look for a weekend preview from me on Friday evening or Saturday morning that breaks down all the possible NESCAC scenarios in what can only be described as the world’s biggest Wall of Text (patent pending). While you wait, check back for our 2nd set of Recruiting Hub profiles which will be released at some point today!
#4 Bowdoin @ #21 Bates, Wednesday at 4 p.m.
Why this match matters: MAINE RIVALRY! Bates has actually won two of the past three matches between these two, but last year Bowdoin rolled Bates 8-1 after sweeping doubles and losing just a super at #1. Both of these teams respect each other, but you can expect some fire on the court. Bowdoin needs this match to stay in contention for the regular-season NESCAC crown and a top-4 seed at NCAAs. There are also Individual implications here, as Luke Tercek and Ben Rosen were ranked 4th and 5th respectively in the NCAA’s initial regional rankings that came out last week. Tercek had a tough week losing to Shastri (Williams) and Murad (Colby), which will inevitably drop him down the rankings. A win over Rosen would put Tercek back in good shape. Both doubles teams are on the outside looking in, but still within striking distance. A loss for either team might drop them from contention for good (at least it certainly would for Bates if they don’t make NESCACs).
What happens if Bates wins: A little bit of chaos, but not the end of the world. Bowdoin would still have a shot at a bye in the conference tournament by beating Wesleyan and Midd beating Herst. Their NCAA seeding would certainly take a hit, but they will have plenty of chances to improve that over the coming 10 days. Bates would keep hope alive for a most improbable NESCACs run. The Bobcats would need to beat Wesleyan this weekend too, and then could theoretically leapfrog both Tufts and Williams.
What happens if Bowdoin wins: They set up a pretty epic showdown with Wesleyan over the weekend where the winner will almost certainly be assured a top-2 finish in the conference and a bye to the tournament semifinals. Bowdoin also keeps its shot at a top 4 overall seed at NCAAs. Bates would officially be eliminated from NESCACs contention (barring some rulebook loophole about not playing teams ahead of you), as they would only have Wesleyan left on their schedule and even if they won that match should lose a head-to-head tiebreak with Tufts for the 6th and final spot at NESCACs.
How Bates can pull the upset: As usual it would start with a doubles lead. It’s possible that Bates can win without sweeping the doubles, but a 3-0 lead would be infinitely easier. If they get the doubles lead, look for the Bobcats to rely on Rosen and possibly Schwartz to shock their rivals. It’s supposed to rain all through the NE tomorrow, so there’s a decent chance this match moves inside onto Bates’ carpet-like courts. Ellis and Ordway also have four years of experience on those indoor courts, so if the match is played indoors they will have a better shot of upsetting strong guys like Urken or Roddy.
Why Bowdoin will win: They’re stronger at almost every spot (with the possible exception of the very top). They likely need the match in order to have a shot at the coveted 1st round bye at NESCACs. Their depth is simply stronger than Bates’. On paper, this is a team that should win this match 7-2.
Matchup to watch: #1 singles. Tercek and Rosen are both likely sitting around the #5-8 spots in the Individual rankings. Rosen’s stock is moving up while Tercek struggled a bit last weekend. Whoever wins this match, especially if it’s Rosen, should be feeling very good about his chances to make NCAAs.
Prediction: Bowdoin def. Bates 6-3 in a closer match than people anticipate.
#16 Tufts @ #22 Brandeis, Friday at 3 p.m.
Why this match matters: IT’S SENIOR DAY. Plus, while this isn’t your conventional rivalry, these teams have played some fiery matches in the past. What builds a rivalry? Proximity, tradition, intensity, and stakes. The two schools are not even 15 miles apart, they play every year, their matches are always close, and at least one of them is usually still “in the running” (even if a longshot) for a Pool-C spot or NESCAC/UAA seeding. 2016: Tufts wins 5-4, 2015: Deis wins 6-3, 2014: Tufts wins 6-3, 2013: Tufts wins 5-4, 2012: Tufts wins 6-3, 2011: Tufts wins 6-3, 2010: Deis wins 5-4. No match outside of 6-3, and a few 5-4 nail biters including last year when Tufts overcame a doubles deficit and won four tight singles matches including both 3-setters. You can bet the Brandeis seniors would love nothing more than to go out with a hard-fought win over the Jumbos.
What happens if Brandeis wins: The perfect way for these Deis seniors to go out. A great finish out of nowhere, a real Cinderella story. Their ranking would increase again, although it’s undoubtedly going to shoot up after their 5-4 win over Case on Sunday (remember that they are ranked in the low-mid 30’s in the ITA). But realistically, that’s about all it would do for Deis. For Tufts, it could, somehow cost them a spot at NESCACs, and would make a Pool-C bid impossible. I don’t see how the NESCAC tie where the Brandeis result comes into play would be possible given the standings right now, but if Tufts/Bates/Williams somehow ended up regarded as a 3-way tie, then it could come down to out-of-conference but in-region results. Tufts will have lost to Deis while Bates beat Deis earlier in the month. To be clear, I don’t really see how that scenario would occur given that Bates and Williams don’t play each other this year, but I wanted to get all the info out there.
What happens if Tufts wins: For Tufts, they get to continue to hope, and the go into their match at Bowdoin on Saturday with the confidence of a four-match winning streak. Additionally, they are still alive (if only barely) in the Pool-C hunt. I believe it would still take a run to the NESCAC finals + a regular-season ending win over Bowdoin, but if that happens I’d feel very good about Tufts making a Pool-C spot. Unlikely, but certainly possible. For the Judges, it would be a disappointing end to a fantastic run down the home-stretch of their season. Over the past few weeks Brandeis is 8-1 with wins over MIT and Case Western, and their only loss coming in a tightly contested battle with Wash U.
How Brandeis pulls the upset: The top of the lineup. It is senior day afterall, and Bunis/Granoff/Arguello at the top three spots might all be needed to bring home wins. It would be a stellar send-off if the seniors accounted for all of the necessary 5 points in an upset (#1/3 dubs and the top 3 singles spots).
Matchup to watch: #2 singles. If Ali plays #2, his matchup vs Granoff will definitely be the one to keep an eye on. This could be the strongest spot for both teams, or at least it’s the spot where both teams have the hottest hand.
Prediction: The sentimental side of me always loves a Senior Day. But I think Tufts is stronger than both MIT and Case. The Jumbos spoil the senior day, beating Deis 5-4.
D3REGIONAL’S TAKE: This Friday’s match will almost certainly be the last collegiate match for a great senior Brandeis class. The Judges come in riding high, with seniors Ryan Bunis, Brian Granoff, and Michael Arguello all playing very strong tennis both on the singles and the doubles court. Tufts likely has at least two more matches this year with
Bowdoin and the NESCAC tournament, but they can’t look past the Judges, who will certainly be leaving everything on the court. I think a singles split is very probable, as I slightly favor the Judges at #1-3, Tufts at #4 and #5 by a little more, and I think #6 is a tossup. Both Tufts and Brandeis are playing good doubles right now, and I think whoever gets the doubles lead is going to take this one. Brandeis should have a great crowd at home for their senior day, and I believe the home-court advantage will carry them through. There is also a 50% chance of rain for Friday and I see the advantage shifting more to the Judges if this is on their three indoor courts. I’ll go Brandeis 5-4 with Judges wins at #1 and #3 doubles, plus #2, #3, and #6 singles.
NE: That’s all for now. Again, be sure to check out the ever expanding Recruiting Hub! Shoutout to another Maine team having its senior day this weekend when Colby hosts USM on Sunday. Remember, Shaw, candlesticks always make a nice gift.
Hate to be THAT guy, but we had our senior day last Thursday against Bowdoin. A trip to Chattanooga for Carl and Vlad might make for an even nicer gift #l3gends
I SWEAR THERE WAS A USM MATCH ON YOUR SCHEDULE FOR THIS WEEKEND! This is what I get for delving into D3Regional’s territory. Shame on me.
What happens if Bates and tufts finish with the same win/loss record in nescac play?
Tufts beat Bates 6-3 earlier this month, so I believe they would get the #6 seed due to a head-to-head tiebreaker.