#16 MIT @ #8 Wesleyan, Tuesday at 3 p.m.
Happy Tuesday, boys and girls! We’re being treated to a great mid-week matchup this afternoon, so I thought I’d pump out a quick blurbfest preview. We haven’t seen much from Wesleyan since they’re big 5th place finish at the Stag Hen and an even bigger 5-4 win over Redlands last month. Since their Cali trip, the Cards had a nice 4-3 win over D1 Quinnipiac, and steam-rolled a conference foe in Hamilton. I liked what I saw from the Hamilton match, as it shows that Wesleyan is very comfortable on their own indoor courts. The Cards lost just 17 total games between all 9 spots that day. This is important because today’s forecast for good old Middletown is high 40’s and rainy, so the match will likely be held indoors.
It’s been even longer since we’ve seen MIT play an important match. The Engineers were scheduled to take on Bowdoin over this past weekend, but the match was postponed due to snow (makeup date scheduled for April 23). I would have felt much better about my MIT predictions if we had another match to go off, but we can look back to their 6-3 home win over Bates from the beginning of March as the closest DIII level of competition. Since that Bates win, MIT has rolled past Colby Sawyer and Southern Maine, both by resounding 9-0’s, and beaten D1 Bryant 4-3. The Engineers are #21 in the ITA rankings because they haven’t beaten a top-20 team yet. This will be their first of only three chances to do so in the regular season.
Now, as this is not a conference match, you might think that there isn’t a whole lot riding on this. I would (for the most part) disagree. Both of these teams have HUGE expectations/lofty goals, and while a loss here would obviously hurt Wesleyan’s NCAA chances far more than MIT’s, there is a lot of pride taken in the regional and national rankings that are at stake. An MIT win here probably moves them pretty close to the top-10 (for the 1st time in recent memory) given Wes’ wins over Redlands and Case. A Wesleyan win keeps them in the top-3 in the regional rankings (what I have to assume is the programs’ highest ever regional ranking), and should give the Cards a ton of confidence as they prepare to host Williams on Sunday in what might be their most important remaining match of the season. There is also an individuals stake in this matchup as Tyler Barr is (I believe unreasonably) ranked down at #14 while Steven Chen is (I believe very reasonably) ranked up at #3 in the region. A Barr win this afternoon would go a long way. Here’s how I see the other matchups breaking down.
#1 doubles: vs Cauneac/Lilley (MIT) vs Liu/Roberts (Wes). This Wesleyan pair is ranked #3 in the region right now, but I still see them as vulnerable. Their ranking is probably slightly inflated by fall results, while Cauneac/Lilley were hurt by that same part of the season. This one will likely be close, MIT 9-7.
#2 doubles: Barr/Go (MIT) vs Eusebio/Smith (Wes). I’ve been very impressed with both of these teams so far in 2017. I believe this is MIT’s strongest doubles team, but how can I pick against a team in Eusebio/Smith that has not lost yet this year? Wesleyan, 9-8 (3).
#3 doubles: Cheng/Ko (MIT) vs Daniels/Chen (Wes). Even though Eusebio/Smith have not lost this year, I still maintain that a doubles team of Chen/Daniels at #3 is Wes’ strongest spot. They got easy wins over CMS, Case and Redlands in California, and the only DIII team they’ve lost to all year (including the fall) is the Williams #1 pair of Taylor/Grodecki. This is a young MIT team who could be really good in a couple years, but for now advantage Cards. Wesleyan, 8-4.
#1 singles: Tyler Barr (MIT, 12.98) vs Steven Chen (Wes, 12.82). These guys played back in October and Chen took the tightly contested match 6-4 in the 3rd. Both guys have been playing lights out this spring, and I’d be shocked if either one of them won this match easily. This is probably a spot MIT needs to have if they’re going to win. Let’s give it to them, with a side order of revenge for 6-4 in the 3rd. MIT, 6-4, 2-6, 6-4.
#2 singles: Alex Cauneac (MIT, 12.36) vs Michael Liu (Wes, 12.38). Another tight UTR matchup, another spot that MIT probably will need. Both guys have been up and down, and I’m having a very hard time predicting who will get the better of whom in this one. When in doubt, lean towards experience. Wesleyan, 6-4, 5-7, 6-3.
#3 singles: Victor Cheng (MIT, 12.41) vs Tiago Eusebio (Wes, 12.25). Cheng has been excellent so far this spring, and has a very bright future ahead of him, but Eusebio has also been a pleasant surprise, with his only loss this year coming to Mork. I think Tiago continues his big year. Wesleyan, 7-6 (4), 6-3.
#4 singles: Sean Ko (MIT, 12.39) vs Joachim Samson (Wes, 12.81). D3AS’ favorite (and actually D3RegAS’ favorite) Sean Ko has had a good start to 2017, but his toughest tests lie ahead, including Mr. Samson. I’ve always thought Samson had the potential to play even higher in this lineup, and I see this match being an absolute battle, but I’m leaning Wes again. Wesleyan, 7-5, 6-4.
#5 singles: Albert Go (MIT, 12.06) vs Cam Daniels (Wes, 12.67). Man, both these teams have some really good singles lineups! Go’s only loss this spring came against Bates, but he also had one fall loss to none other than Mr. Cam Daniels. Daniels beat Go 0&4 at MIT on his massive backdraw run. I already gave Barr the revenge factor, so why stop now? MIT, 7-5, 2-6, 10-7.
#6 singles: vs Brian Lilley/Kenny Gea (MIT, 11.45/11.13) Princeton Carter (Wes, 11.60). Advantage Wesleyan. The Prince has been awesome to start 2017, taking the most of his opportunity to play in the starting lineup. Lilley has been the better singles option for MIT, but Gea is the team’s lone starting senior and has plenty of match experience. I like Carter over either Gea or Lilley. Wesleyan, 6-4, 6-3.
My math comes out to a 6-3 Wesleyan win. Usually you’d say MIT’s route to winning this match would be taking a doubles lead, but I don’t think that HAS to happen here, as the Engineers are certainly capable of taking four singles matches. I’m excited for this one as it’ll be our first REAL taste of just how good this young MIT lineup is/could be. Follow @CardsTennis this afternoon as they are almost always good with the updates. I’ll be tweeting as well, so feel free to lay it on me when every single prediction above goes the other way.