NE WEEKEND PREVIEW: Saturday 4/1
Happy weekend, boys and girls. I’ll leave the shenanigans to other writers, and today bring you the first of what will be a nauseating amount of NE previews over the next month or so. We all know that Midd is playing (AND BEATING!!!) other NCAA title contenders this weekend down in Texas, but there are also three intra-region matchups this weekend that should grab at least some attention in the NE. Shockingly, only one is a conference match. While there probably isn’t a whole lot of Pool-C positioning being jockeyed for on Saturday, we should know more about a couple of top-10 regional programs by Sunday. Congrats again to “Billy” de Quant and the Panthers on their upset of Emory!
#5 Amherst @ #18 Tufts, 12 P.M.
What’s at stake: NESCAC positioning, Pool-C implications, and possibly a sizable dose of revenge. If Tufts wins this match, they should no longer have to worry all that much about making NESCACs, and should instead shift their gaze back to the Pool-C picture (where they would still have plenty of work to do). Seeing as Tufts lost to PP in Cali, the team with more postseason implications here are the HAMSTERS (what is dead may never die). They lost to Tufts 7-2 last year when the Jumbos won all four 3-set singles matches, and this year Amherst is traveling to Tufts, which means we could get the lightning indoor courts everybody always talks about. You can bet that Herst will not overlook Tufts this year, even with a massive match against Bowdoin looming the following weekend.
How Tufts pulls off the upset: While Amherst looked good their spring break trip, we haven’t really seen them play against a team in the #4-12 range. Tufts doesn’t quite qualify, but given the home court advantage I’d say they will be the closest thing to it so far this year. Amherst hasn’t had any consistent weaknesses, but Tufts will need to take a doubles lead, take at least one of the top singles spots, and find another spot somewhere (maybe at #2). It’s unlikely, but given how close these two teams are in ITA ranking, we might be in for a good one.
Why Amherst wins the match: Talent, depth, vengeance. While that was the tag-line for CMS’ 2015 NCAA title run, it also applies here. Herst wants revenge, their 4-6 are as good as anybody in the country except MAYBE for CMS. They have been playing good doubles so far this spring. There aren’t enough weak points for a team like Tufts to exploit without a big time upset.
Prediction: I think I’ve made it clear that I like Amherst in this match. Herst’s close match against Emory means this wouldnt be the first time the young guns would be tested if the match stays close, so while the home court will play a role, it won’t be enough of one to swing the match. Amherst 6-3.
#16 MIT @ #3 Bowdoin, 2 P.M.
MATCH CANCELLED DUE TO WEATHER
What’s at stake: It’s not a conference match for either team, but after Midd’s MASSIVE performance against Emory earlier today, a Bowdoin statement against a quality team might be needed. MIT doesn’t have any losses that would hurt Bowdoin all that much, but they still have multiple NESCAC opponents on their schedule so indirects could hurt Bowdoin greatly. It’s an all-opportunity type match for MIT, and their young & talented roster should be very excited for a chance to put it all out there and earn their power ranking.
How MIT pulls off the upset: Bowdoin’s doubles have been strong all spring, but they didn’t look all that special at home vs. Brandeis earlier today. If MIT takes a doubles lead, they can absolutely win this match. Turk and Urk have been rounding into singles form, but Barr and Cauneac have been awesome so far in 2017. Then the freshmen get after it down at 4&5 for MIT and who knows what will happen.
Why Bowdoin wins the match: The idea of MIT taking a doubles lead is a big IF. This will be Bowdoin’s 2nd match on their home indoor courts in as many days, and they will be good and used to the surface, which I believes favors the big team that they are. I think Bowdoin is more likely to go up 3-0 than MIT is to take a doubles lead, and the issue for MIT’s talented freshmen is that they’re going up against really strong players in Jiang and Roddy, who both will make the young guns earn every step of their hypothetical victory.
Prediction: While I do think a bunch of these singles matches will stay close, I like Bowdoin to make a mini-statement and come away with a 6-3 or even 7-2 win.
#27 Brandeis @ #22 Bates 3 P.M.
What’s at stake: A national ranking? Originally I wasn’t going to write about this match, as Brandeis is one of the teams that D3Regional covers, but after the new ITA rankings were released I decided it needed extra attention. All you Regional Roundup fans, don’t worry, D3Regional’s thoughts are below. Brandeis has had some guys missing, and they lost to NYU while not at full-strength, but this was a team that more than one blogger had a shot of being top-20 in 2017. According to our Power Rankings, Bates is still a team that belongs near the top-20. The idea that these two teams are 32nd and 40th in the national rankings is more than odd, for Bates it just doesn’t make sense. True, the Bobcats are 1-7 on the year, but their six DIII losses came to the #2, #4, #11, #17, #20 and #22 teams in the country. Seems like an overreaction to drop a team 13 spots for losing to teams ranked at minimum 7 spots ahead of them? Also, these past rankings came out after Bates had already fallen to CMS/PP out west, and MIT/Middlebury back in the NE. So the losses to Hopkins and UMW dropped them this far? These are teams who had their goal (albeit probably lofty) set of making NCAAs this spring, and now they are playing as the 12th and 13th best team in the NE according to regional ranking.
How Brandeis pulls off the upset: Get healthy! With a full roster, I’m not actually sure there is a favorite in this match. In fact, with Brandeis’ strong top-3 all in the lineup (Arguello, Bunis, Granoff) I’d say this match is a toss-up. If Deis is fully healthy, they will need to get at least one point from doubles, and then they have the potential to win 4+ singles matches. Neither team’s singles has been all that impressive so far this year, but the seniors certainly have the potential to make things uncomfortable for the Bobcats. Given Deis’ strong showing today (albeit in a loss) against Bowdoin, the Judges should roll up to Bates with some confidence tomorrow.
Why Bates wins the match: Given that we don’t know exactly who Deis will be starting on Saturday, and it’s the day after they play Bowdoin on a much faster indoor surface, it could be tough for the Judges. Somebody told me that this will be Bates’ 1st home match of the year, and I didn’t believe them. But after looking it up, it is in fact true. Bates has played eight matches in six different states but has yet to play on their home courts. That should provide at least a small boost for the Bobcats. Their doubles have remained solid even in their rough start to 2017, look for them to take a doubles lead and then rely on Rosen and either their depth or Deis’ rusty top guys in order to get the win.
Prediction: Something about this match has the feel of one that comes down to the wire. I’m giving Bates an edge due to their home courts. Bates takes a doubles lead, and then gets just enough for a 5-4 skin of their teeth type win.
D3Regional: I’m going 5-4 Bates. Bates plays well on their indoor home courts, and I can’t remember the last time Brandeis has won there, if it has ever happened. The Brandeis lineup has a ton of uncertainty right now. If Ryan Bunis doesn’t go, I think Bates starts to get the advantage at spots #4-6. Brian Granoff beat Chris Ellis in less than an hour last year, and he is having an excellent season, so I would give him the nod over Ellis, but Rosen the advantage over Arguello, who has come back down to earth this spring. I think Tyler Ng and Josh Quijano is a toss-up, both guys are having solid sophomore seasons. Overall, I think singles will end up being a split, but Bates will have already pulled out 2 of 3 doubles for the 5-4 win. Should be a great match!