D3RegionalNEC’s Mid Season Report, Part I: The Central Region

With the first regional rankings of the spring coming out yesterday, I thought this would be a good time to go team by team and give a quick recap about where everyone is, and where I think they are trending. Sadly there won’t be any great photoshops a la D3RegionalASouth, and with two regions and many teams to cover, I’m going to keep things brief (at least that’s my plan) and for the most part skip match previews for the moment. I’ll try to share my thoughts on specific matches on twitter, so for now sit back, relax, and enjoy some Buy or Sell: Central Edition.

(Teams are listed in the order they appear in the 3/30 ITA Central Region Rankings)

Denison
The Big Red don’t have any really bad losses, but they also have zero good wins or even decent losses. Their 6-3 win over Ohio Wesleyan tells me that they are closer to the middle of the pack in the NCAC than they are to challenging for the title this year.
What’s Next: 4/1 vs Allegheny, 4/2 vs Oberlin
Sell

DePauw
DePauw should be ahead of Denison in the rankings, and is a top 40 team in the country, despite what the ITA rankings say. By season’s end, both those things should happen, and with the way Kenyon has looked, DePauw is—justifiably—a trendy pick to win the NCAC. Rodefeld sits at #4 and controls his own destiny for NCAA qualification, and the Tigers appear to have some solid doubles which could make them a tough out for Kenyon.
What’s Next: 4/8 vs GAC, 4/9 vs Coe
Buy

Coe
The Kohawks have been fairly quiet after an active start to the year and a relatively early spring break, but overall have had a pretty solid year so far. They may be kicking themselves about the missed opportunity in their 5-4 loss to Kalamazoo, but they still sit at 36 in the ITA rankings, an interesting fact given neither Denison nor DePauw are in the top 40.  The downside to this is that Coe has several big matches remaining (DePauw, Wabash, UWW), and none of them against teams ranked above them.  Regardless, another IIAC title is in store for the Kohawks, who should be shooting to once again finish the year in the national rankings.
What’s Next: 4/2 vs Grinnell and Wartburg
Buy

Oberlin
The Yeoman still have their biggest matches ahead of them, and their season will really be defined by how they do against the NCAC top 3, both in the regular season and in postseason play. Surpassing Denison is well within reach, and would be a nice stepping stone as Oberlin continues to improve. I definitely think the Yeoman have a chance to do it, although it’s mostly because I’m low on Denison. They’ll need to watch out for Wheaton when they meet in a few weeks, as the Thunder can win this match with their advantage towards the top of the lineup. Still, generally speaking, I like the direction this team is trending.
What’s Next: 4/1 vs Rochester, 4/2 vs Denison
Buy

Wheaton
The Thunder have taken a nice step forward by moving up to #12 in the region, a deserved jump even though they really only have two solid wins (Wabash and Ohio Wesleyan). Close losses to Kenyon, UWW, Rhodes, and Coe have also shown that Wheaton has the talent to compete with many teams in the 30-40 range. Ancona, Paulsen, and Steiner are a very good #1-3 and have pretty much carried this team, but three players can’t do it alone, and with a serious drop off lower in the lineup, I think Wheaton is pretty close to their ceiling. The CCIW title is between them and Carthage, which should be very interesting considering both teams are very good at 1-3 and much weaker at 4-6.
What’s Next: 4/4 vs Augustana College, 4/8 vs Oberlin
Hold

Wabash
The Little Giants look to be improving and are another team that could make some noise in the NCAC tournament, especially if they face Denison. Their best result has to be a 6-3 win over Rose Hulman, who beat them 9-0 last season. Patrick McAuley has been a nice addition, and I do like how this team appears to be a little more balanced, not as top heavy as some other Central teams. That gives them more of a shot as they take on Coe, Denison, and DePauw in the next few weeks. To me, their best shot at an upset will be against Coe.
What’s Next: 4/1 vs UWW and Hanover, 4/8 vs Coe
Hold

SNACK OF THE WEEK: A different type of article, but our snack feature remains. Today we’re paying tribute to jerky! Whether it’s beef, turkey, or something fancier like bison, let’s give a shoutout to a savory snack that somehow makes “leathery” a positive attribute.

Carleton
Feels like forever since I’ve written about Carleton. They’ve been mostly quiet, taking a spring break trip to Hawaii where they faced Cal Lu, losing 6-3, a result that doesn’t inspire much confidence in me. 6-3 wins in February over Carthage, UW La Crosse, and Grinnell are their best results so far, and I don’t see them moving above their current spot at 14, as that would most likely require a win over Gustavus and I don’t see the Knights pulling a Mary Hardin Baylor.  Also, a fun little observation: Carleton has one of the presumably most jarring environment changes between matches you could imagine: Hilo, Hawaii to Fargo, North Dakota.
What’s Next: 4/1 vs Concordia College, 4/2 vs Augustana University (D-II)
Sell

Rose-Hulman
Eh. That’s really my first reaction while perusing Rose-Hulman’s results this spring. Losses to Wabash, Case Western, and DePauw, with their best win so far being against Oglethorpe. Nothing about that really gets me too excited. They still have plenty of matches ahead of them, including Coe, Wash U, and Ohio Wesleyan. I assume that they are favorites to win the Heartland Conference again, but if we’re being honest I am not an expert here. Overall, my sense is that RHIT is more likely to move down in the rankings than up.
What’s Next: 4/1 vs Transylvania, 4/2 vs Wooster and Wright State (D-I)
Sell

Luther
Luther appears in the rankings thanks mainly to their win over Carthage last week, their best in recent memory. I’m happy to see a team moving up like this, though #16 might be as high as they get this year. They’ll have a shot to move up further if they can knock off Carleton (whose ranking is probably a bit inflated), but that might be a stretch for the Norse. Being in the IIAC they’ll have to deal with Coe as well, and while they will make the Kohawks work, they talent gap is fairly large. Overall, it’s been an undeniable nice season for Luther so far.
What’s Next: 4/1 vs Nebraska Wesleyan and Creighton (D-I), 4/8 vs Carleton
Buy

Carthage
As it stands now, Carthage has very good chance to get a singles player and a doubles team into NCAAs. That’s awesome! The top of Carthage’s lineup is that of a top 40 team, but they drop off considerably, and consistently have close matches or win at 1-3 and then get smoked at 4-6. Like their CCIW rival Wheaton, Carthage has a lot of close losses, a result of their lineup imbalance, which makes upsets hard to pull off AND leaves them vulnerable if one of their top guys happen to lose. Losses to Hope and Luther are blemishes on their record so far, but it can all be remedied if they knock off Wheaton, a match that, as I’ve been saying, I’m super interested to see how it plays out.
What’s Next: 4/2 vs Carroll, 4/7 vs UW Eau Claire
Hold

UW-La Crosse
As I tweeted, I was surprised to see them up this high after losing to St. Scholastica last weekend. They’ve also lost to unranked Wooster, though an 8-1 win over Luther is a bright spot. UWL also has some close matches with solid teams like a 5-4 win over Franklin & Marshall, a 6-3 loss to Hobart, a 6-3 loss to Carleton, and a 5-4 loss to Carthage. They’ve had results all over the place, but if everything clicks I could see them putting up a solid fight against Whitewater. Not calling an upset here, but the gap has lessened (more due to UWW being down).
What’s Next: 4/2 vs Edgewood, 4/8 vs Dubuque
Hold

Ohio Wesleyan
The Battling Bishops are a bit underrated in my eyes, and the fact that they are probably sixth best in the NCAC shows the improved depth in the conference. The played Denison quite close in a 6-3 loss, and fell 5-4 to #12 Wheaton, which unfortunately was their most important match for ranking implications. They still have cracks at Wabash and Rose-Hulman, and while both are winnable, RHIT is their best shot at improving their ranking.
What’s Next: 4/2 vs Kenyon. 4/4 vs Wittenberg
Buy

John Carroll
6-3 losses to Coe and Oberlin are the most notable results John Carroll has had so far, with the majority of their remaining schedule being against OAC competition. I see no reason why the OAC isn’t theirs to lose again this year, and with the right draw they could even win a round in NCAAs. Unfortunately, their schedule doesn’t really give them much of a shot to move up in the rankings unless they can shock Case Western (don’t hold your breath), but they do have a nice interregional matchup with Rochester this weekend which will be a good battle between lower ranked Northeast and Central teams. Finally, shoutout to Jad Abdul-Aal, who is a very good #1 ranked #20 in the region but in the top 5 for names (Oberlin’s Manickam Manickam still holds the top spot).
What’s Next: 4/1 vs Ohio Northern, 4/2 vs Rochester
Sell

As always, thanks for reading! Still plenty of tennis left to be played this spring, which means plenty of blogging left to be done as well. Keep an eye out for Part II of my Mid Season Report, featuring the Northeast Region, which should be out in the next few days.