NE Weekend Preview: 4/23-4/24

NE Weekend Preview: 4/23-4/24

Happy weekend, boys and girls, and welcome to what seems like the 178th consecutive important weekend for the NE. The UAA is down in sunny (and sometimes rainy) Florida, and apparently the NE wants to go as far away from there as possible. All the big NE matches this weekend take place in either Vermont or Maine, and you never know what kind of weather you’re going to get in the great white north (although this weekend’s forecast is supposed to be on the nicer side). I’m getting slightly tired of writing boring match-by-match previews, so I’m going to switch some things up today. Let me know if you prefer the match-by-match breakdowns, and I’ll happily revert back, but here’s to really livening up my Saturday morning.

#13 Amherst @ #3 Middlebury, Saturday at 12 p.m.

What’s at stake: More than you think. Amherst needs either this match or some combination of their Williams match and two NESCAC tournament matches if they are going to get back in the Pool-C conversation once again. If Midd wins, and Bowdoin beats Williams, then the Panthers wrap up the #1 seed at NESCACs. That means they won’t have to play either Bowdoin or Williams (if current standings hold) until the finals of the tournament. If Midd loses, they’ll still technically be the #1 seed, but there will be no room for error moving forward, plus it will certainly damage their national ranking and subsequently the strength of their #1 seed at NCAAs.

Matches to watch: #1 doubles, #1 singles, #6 singles. #1 doubles has huge implications for postseason play, as these two teams currently sit at #4 and #5 in the regional rankings. The winning team should be in control of their postseason destiny. #1 singles is intriguing more because who will be on the court for Herst than the match itself. Farrell is going to be favored over anybody in the country right now, but Amherst needs Zykov healthy if they are going to have a chance. #6 singles, as you’ll see below, is a spot that Amherst absolutely must win. Fife has been arguably Amherst’s most consistent player this year (who would have said that after the past two years), and #6 has been Midd’s least consistent spot (which means the whole team has been pretty darn good).

How Amherst wins this match: Seniors. There are a couple of spots that I would say are must-win for Amherst if they are going to win this match. Basically, it boils down to their seniors. Solimano/Revzin have to win at #1 doubles, Fife has to win at #6 singles, and some combination of two of the other three seniors (Solimano, Yaraghi, and Revzin) need to win in singles. That would be four points right there, and would put a lot of pressure on the favored Panthers. I still believe that the Amherst seniors are going to have their day. It may be foolish of me, and it’s almost certainly too little too late, but I still believe.

Why Middlebury will win this match: Grind. Amherst has shown this year that they don’t seem to be able to get back up after taking a big punch. They lost four 3rd setters against Tufts, they didn’t win a single set after getting swept by Bowdoin, and they lost both 3-setters to fall 5-4 to Wesleyan just last weekend. If Middlebury can withstand some early doubles pressure (which is bound to happen in a rivalry match), and just continue fighting, their constant body blows will eventually turn into a strong enough jab to knock Amherst down for good. I think Midd is too solid to fall victim to the upset bid, though with this Amherst team you never really know what you’re going to get. I like Midd to take a surprisingly easy 7-2 win today. 

#6 Williams @ #2 Bowdoin, Saturday at 2 p.m.

What’s at stake: A lot, but also not that much at the same time. Seems kind of counterintuitive, but here me out. Yes, this match will go a long ways for both teams. A Williams win would push them into the safe side of the Pool-C bubble (barring a big upset before NESCACs), while a Bowdoin win would be a great way to rebound from their 5-4 loss to Midd, and solidify their claim for more than just a top-4 seed at NCAAs. However, a Williams loss in no way disqualifies them from Pool-C, in fact it will barely hurt them at all. D3AS wrote a lot yesterday about how Williams would be squandering another opportunity. I believe Bowdoin to be closer to Emory than Case/CMU, therefore I wouldn’t view a loss to Bowdoin in such pessimistic terms. Not all of us believe that the current standings would yield 4 UAA Pool-C bids. On the other side, a loss for Bowdoin won’t drop them out of Pool-C either. They would have less margin for error, but if they beat the teams that they were supposed to over the next couple weeks, they would be just fine, and still almost certainly host a region.

Matches to watch: All the doubles, #3-6 singles. Lots of matches to watch? Well with good reason. Bowdoin has been playing the best doubles in the region, but lately Williams has been playing some quality doubles as well. Williams likely need a doubles lead, as Bowdoin is stronger in singles and playing on their home courts, so each doubles match becomes that much more important. In singles, Bowdoin will be favored at #1 and #2, but after that it’s a surprising amount of close matches. Grodecki vs Wolfe should be a grind, Jiang had a good match with De Quant last weekend, but Schidlovsky had an easy straight set win over Jacobson last weekend too. Slight edge to Jiang, but in a freshman vs senior duel with a lot on the line, you all know which way I lean. Roddy and Urken were unbeaten at #5 and #6 until last weekend when Roddy was clobbered by Derbani. Similarly, Indrakanti was undefeated until a quick loss to Coran last weekend. It will be interesting to see how Roddy and Indrakanti rebound from their first losses of the season, but I expect both of these matches to go the distance.

How Williams wins this match: Take a doubles lead, and get some quick momentum. Look, the Ephs are #6 in the Blog Power Rankings for a reason. As much as D3AS tends to hate on them, they are a good team. They are very capable of taking a doubles lead on Bowdoin, and a quick strike somewhere in the singles lineup would undoubtedly propel some of their other guys through close matches. It could come from almost any spot, as the Ephs have big game potential all across the board, but I think that if Williams will get worn down in a dogfight, much like they were when they lost to Middlebury earlier this year.

Why Bowdoin will win this match: They’re just too solid. It’s kind of like that breaking bad clip where Bryan Cranston tells you not to bulls*** a bulls***ter. Williams is very solid, but I don’t believe they can out-solid Bowdoin because the Polar Bears are simply more solid. Don’t try to out-solid the too solid. Bowdoin grinds as well as almost any team in the country, even with how good they are/can be indoors. I think Williams will throw a punch or two (to continue with the boxing metaphors), but Bowdoin absorbs the body blows and outlasts the Ephs. Closer than the score (perhaps significantly so), but Bowdoin gets the job done 7-2.

#6 Williams @ #24 Bates, Sunday at 2 p.m.

What’s at stake: Holding onto Pool-C hope for dear life, and one last shot for NESCACs. Coming off what I will assume is a long match against Bowdoin, the Ephs will stay in Maine to take on Bates the following day. If they are coming off a loss, then the Bates match will be an absolute must win for the Ephs. After this weekend, Williams only has Amherst left before NESCACs, and with a loss to Bowdoin then the Ephs must beat Bates, Amherst, and the #6 seed at NESCACs to even be considered for one of the final Pool-C spots. For Bates, they have to beat Williams and Bowdoin in order to make NESCACs and have any shot (albeit as slim as it gets) to make NCAAs through Pool-A.

Matches to watch: Doubles, #1 singles, and #2 singles. Both of these teams play good doubles, which means that the first hour of this match should stay exciting. Bates’ #1 team needs to win to hold any hope of making NCAAs (though they’d still need some help at this point), but both teams have lower doubles that have been playing well of late as well. Raventos vs Rosen should be a good match at #1, with both guys wanting a win to help their NCAA chances. Raventos probably needs the match more than Rosen does, but Jose will have the opportunity to play more matches at NESCACs while Rosen likely will not. #2 could also be a good match. We saw Ellis lose the clincher vs Ali and Tufts yesterday, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see another 3-setter from him and Shastri tomorrow.

How Bates wins this match: Doubles sweep. Short and sweet. I think Bates needs the sweep to win this match. That’s by no means out of the question, as Bates has taken leads on Wesleyan and Tufts already this week, but I don’t think Bates gets three points in singles. They have an edge at #1, and could get #2. If forced to say, I’d say they could get a point at either #3 or #5, especially with Scott playing better of late, but the idea of counting on Ellis to beat Shastri and either Scott to beat Grodecki or Ordway to beat Raghavan is too difficult to believe in. A doubles sweep, mixed with a Rosen win and a win at #2 is the most likely path to a Cats’ win. Notice those were the matches I put in the above section, that means Bates wins a whole heck of a lot of matchups that are close to toss-ups.

Why Williams wins this match: Singles strength. While I did say it was possible for Bates to take a 3-0 lead, I don’t consider it likely. We all know how unlikely it is to go up 3-0, and it’s even less likely when the team you’re playing is ranked above and also known for its doubles prowess. Williams should be favored at #3-#6 singles, and probably slightly favored at #2 as well. As I said in the Williams vs Bowdoin preview, the Ephs are dangerous at all six spots, and should prove to be too much for Bates at the majority of those six spots. I like Williams to rebound from a Bowdoin loss, and win 6-3, but somewhat comfortably.