I’m going to try and fire off a quick Pool C article prior to the UAA tournament tomorrow because that’s what I do. This one will delve into what is at stake for the UAA teams in the tournament and where Pool C is right now. This should be a much shorter article considering no big NESCAC matches have happened in the past week (unless you count Tufts over Bates) so that means this will be a UAA focused article, as I am sure you probably knew. If you would like to reference the old Pool C articles, simply search Pool C in the top right hand corner of your screen. I was going to link them but I’ve done way too much writing today and you guys can help me out a little by doing that yourself.
Assumptions
- CMS wins the SCIAC and does not get dropped into Pool C.
- Middlebury/Bowdoin wins the NESCAC and the other gets the first Pool C spot.
- Emory wins the UAA but if they lose to Wash U they get the first Pool C spot.
- All other conferences do not get any Pool C bids.
- Spoiler alert – UAA right now can get anywhere from 2-4 Pool C spots. Four Pool C spots would be the first time that’s ever happened in my time blogging.
Quick Rundown of Teams
Wash U – Wash U is in virtue of their win over Chicago today as well as their wins over Case and Trinity TX earlier in the season. Late season wins mean a lot to the NCAA and Wash U has already booked their ticket in. Good job Coach Follmer, I almost forgot that you were one of the best coaches in the nation, once again. You do coach my fantasy team, though.
Middlebury/Bowdoin – Whichever one of these teams doesn’t win the NESCAC will make it through Pool C. You don’t need to know anything else. Neither team has any losses outside the top 5 and have beaten multiple teams in the NESCAC and SCIAC.
Chicago – Let’s take a look at Chicago’s resume. They currently have wins against Case Western, Wash U, Stevens, Tufts, Kenyon, UW-Whitewater, and Gustavus. Notice how their only big wins have come against Case Western and Wash U. However, they have also lost to both of those teams, and those losses have come most recently. This is important to note. Chicago does not have a resume that is as good as you would expect. The match tomorrow against CMU is a huge match for them and they need to get up for it. If they lose, you will see later that their resume is in jeopardy.
Carnegie Mellon – Right now, I think CMU is sitting pretty in the 4th Pool C spot. They have wins against Pomona, Case, Kenyon, Hopkins, and Mary Washington. They also lost to Case earlier in the year, but this recent win against Case gives them the late season bias argument over them with a head-to-head. You can see why tomorrow’s match is really big for CMU as well. If they win, they get another top 10 win in Chicago and they basically are in the tournament with 3 Pool C victories (Chicago, Case, Pomona). If they lose, their resume gets submitted to the NCAA admissions team for further review.
Case Western – Case got absolutely shafted by UAA seeding and now have to wait for the NCAA to review their resume before they get that NCAA call. They have wins against Wash U, CMU, Gustavus, Coe, and Chicago. However, they have more recent losses to both Wash U and CMU that is really hurting them. They are helped by the fact that they beat Chicago most recently. You will notice that Chicago and Case basically have the same resume except Case won the late season match. Interesting thing to think about right there.
Williams – Williams is right now holding on for dear life in a season where they’ve beaten everyone they should, but no one they shouldn’t have. They have wins over Pomona, Redlands, Wesleyan, and Tufts. Notice how the highest win there is against Pomona. All the UAA teams have wins over each other, meaning higher ranked wins. Williams has a big match tomorrow against Bowdoin that I hope NE is previewing or at least giving some thoughts on tomorrow morning. Anyways, Williams resume is basically one where they have no top 10 losses but don’t really have the wins. You can say all you want about the UAA but yea, it’s tough to put Williams ahead of any of them right now.
These are the six teams that you need to know for Pool C right now. Wesleyan, Amherst, Tufts, Pomona, have all lost a lot of matches and are currently all sitting out. Please note that one of the above teams will not get in because there are only 5 Pool C spots. So, let’s get into some scenarios.
Scenario Work!
If CMU defeats Chicago tomorrow, Case def. Brandeis, Bowdoin def. Williams
If these things happen, CMU is definitely in the tournament with wins over Case, Chicago, and Pomona. I said as much in the above. However, we then get into an interesting argument where Case, Chicago, and Williams all have very similar resumes. Williams losing to Bowdoin gives them no top 9 wins, but we can say the rankings are a bit unfair considering Williams just so happened to start lower on the totem pole. Case’s resume is the same as Chicago’s with a loss to CMU, so who is to say they won’t make it in? If I were on the committee, I’m putting Case Western in and having a really tough decision between Chicago and Williams. Since Williams has so many chances and took none of them, I take Chicago as the last spot.
If Chicago defeats CMU tomorrow, Case def. Brandeis, Bowdoin def. Williams
A very similar scenario here as CMU losing gives them a resume battle against Case and Williams. Case has the win over Wash U and Chicago but also has losses to them. CMU has a loss to Chicago but also has the most recent win against Case Western and a nice resume win against Pomona. Williams losing to Bowdoin keeps them from hopping either in resume. If I am on the committee here, I choose CMU as my first in due to late season victory over Case, and Case Western last in due to resume over Williams.
If Williams def. Bowdoin tomorrow, Case def. Brandeis, CMU def. Chicago
Let’s say Williams defeats Bowdoin tomorrow. That gives them a top 4 win that none of the remaining teams can really say they have. That gives them the resume booster they need to pass any of the 4th or 5th place UAA teams. CMU is in by virtue of the win against Chicago. Now, this becomes a battle between Case and Chicago because Williams has overtaken them with their big win. When it comes down to it, both teams have the same resume but Case has the more recent win. If I am on the committee, I am choosing Case Western due to late season victory. Chicago misses the tournament.
If Williams def. Bowdoin, Case def. Brandeis, Chicago def. CMU
Interesting scenario here as Williams again overtakes the 4 and 5 UAA teams. In this case it is CMU and Case Western. So again, Williams makes it due to their resume win. Then, we have a battle between Case and CMU. Both teams do not have the same resume. Problem with Case’s resume is that every team they have beaten, they have lost to. CMU has a Pomona win, Hopkins win, Kenyon win, and Mary Washington win. Case has a Coe win and a Gustavus win. The big tiebreaker here is that CMU just beat Case in the UAA Tournament. If I’m on the committee, I’m taking CMU for the last spot here.
Crazy Scenario – Pomona wins the SCIAC
I’m not going to go into all the scenarios where Pomona wins the SCIAC. But, it’s something to take note of. If they win the SCIAC that means CMS gets a Pool C bid for sure. That knocks one bid out of the hands of either the last UAA team or Williams. The scenarios above apply, BUT whoever is up for the last spot will not get it. That means if Williams defeats Bowdoin, they get the final spot. If they don’t, the loser of tomorrow’s CMU/Chicago battle will determine who gets the spot between them and Case.
ASouth, who am I rooting for?
If you are Chicago, you are rooting to win. If you lose, you are rooting for Bowdoin to beat Williams. That way, you will potentially get the last spot over Williams.
If you are Williams, you are rooting to win. If you lose, well, you lost another chance. You root for yourselves to win later on in the NESCAC tournament.
If you are CMU, you are rooting to win. If you lose, you are rooting for Bowdoin to win. Either way, you are probably safe because of your recent win against Case, but it helps.
If you are Case, you are rooting to win AND rooting for CMU to win. You want to be put against Chicago because you have a great resume argument against them.
Well, well, well. I thought this was going to be a short article but it turned into a decently long one! I hope that this tells you everything you need to know about what’s going on in Pool C right now. It’s very interesting and there are a lot of arguments to be had back and forth. I’ve gotten a few emails here and there about the many different scenarios and we will try to have you a bracketology by the end of the weekend with multiple scenarios. It should be interesting and please feel free to comment or email me with any questions you might have. I’ve been writing for like 5 hours today and I hope that you all are having fun reading! ASouth, OUT.
Thank you all for the fantastic UAA coverage.
With regard to the Pool C situation, I know that Case has the more recent win over Chicago, but do you think their relative lack of resume wins might hurt them? You alluded to Case being hamstrung by the fact that they’ve lost to every major team they’ve beaten, so do you think their lack of other top-20 wins might push Chicago ahead of them–even though Chicago lost to CMU?
By my count (and I could be wrong), outside of splitting with Chicago, Wash U, and CMU, Case’s best resume wins are over #18 Gustavus and #23 Brandeis. Chicago, by contrast, has resume wins over #12 Trinity, #13 Tufts, #16 UWW, #17 Kenyon, #18 Gustavus, and #21 Stevens. I understand that the NCAA selection committee (not the same as the ITA) has tended to emphasize more recent wins, but I think the strength of Chicago’s wins should push them ahead of Case.
In any event, this year should be a litmus test for the significance of resume wins.
It’s an interesting debate, here’s my take on it:
Yes, Chicago has the “better” resume when you look outside of the Chicago/WashU/Case/CMU matches., but Chicago is also 0-1 against CMU. Both Case and Chicago are 1-1 against each other and Wash U.
So Case’s resume should really be #6 CMU along with Gustavus and Brandeis, if you want to cancel things out.
Chicago’s resume becomes all the teams you mentioned because their Wash U and Case wins cancel out.
At the end of the day, Chicago never was able to prove that they beat CMU and go 1-1 against them while Case Western did. Case’s wins and losses shouldn’t cancel themselves out but they should go up against Chicago’s wins and losses. Plus, with the more recent win over Chicago I think Case gets in. I seem to be in the minority.
You make a number of good points, and I would understand if Case gets selected. But I guess for me, wins over Trinity, Tufts, UWW, and Kenyon collectively mean more than a lone win over CMU. If Case had beaten CMU without also losing to them, then I’d probably feel differently.
Definitely true. No matter what, it depends how you look at it and this could really go either way between all 3 teams in my eyes. This has rarely happened before so I am excited to see where it all ends up.
This is a very interesting debate comparing the resumes of Chicago and Case. However, isnt it true that the debate doesnt matter and they will both get in if Williams or another lower nescac team fail to pull off an upset of bowdoin or midd before the season ends? Or am I mistaken?
Great article!!
Henry – that is my take on the whole situation. However, there are those that believe Williams has done enough this season to make a case for the last Pool C spot over Case or Chicago. As you can see in the voting on the left side of the site, a lot of people believe Williams is actually deserving of a spot over the two UAA teams.
This is a strange scenario where there are 3 teams fighting for 2 spots, with the arguments for each being very, very close. Depending on how the NCAA does it, there is going to be one team that loses out yet has an argument to make it in. Hope this answers your question!
Same situation on the women’s side with Tufts, WashU, CMU, and Chicago fighting for the last 3 Pool C spots. All have legitimate arguments to make it, but 1 team won’t.
I just want to say that all of you guys do an extraordinary job with this blog. I am continually amazed by the attention to detail, focus, and timeliness of everything you all produce. From one blog reader, a huge THANK YOU for the effort.
Thank YOU for the compliments!!! Much appreciated! Just keep on reading and that is the best way to thank us 🙂
Couldn’t agree with this guy more. Especially as an alum, you guys make it really easy to feel connected still. Much appreciated