State of the Region: The Atlantic South

@d3AtlanticSouth this should be interesting

— Sewanee Tennis (@USouthTennis) March 22, 2016

And indeed, it will be. I’m here to post my annual State of the Region Address for the ASouth, where I will give my take on all my teams, my individuals, and anything else that is ASouth.  The State of the Region Address was actually something that I had come up with in my first year of blogging, prior to my current Headmaster days.  That was in 2012-2013.  I’ve come a long way since then, four years to be exact.  I can’t believe I’ve been doing this for 4 years and I’m surprised that you guys haven’t gotten sick of me yet.  Or, that I haven’t gotten sick of you.  Unless you’re LoveD3Tennis.  Then, I got sick of you like 6 years ago.  Anyways, my region has been pretty much night and day this year in terms of team performance and there is also one team that really hasn’t… hasn’t done anything.  In this article, I’ll get to the teams first, then give you an update on individuals, and maybe a few things I’d like to see.  I’ll try and get to everyone here.

Emory Eagles: Grade A+

I’m gonna start from best to worst and that means my heavy hitter Emory starts this article off.  Emory has been flawless this season and they deserve an A grade for good reason. They came into the season with questions in the middle of the lineup as well as in doubles and have squashed those questions with defiant answers.  Aman Manji has not lost a match at #3 singles, Bouchet has lost like 2 matches, and overall, the only team that has taken a lead on them in doubles is Carnegie Mellon (go figure).  They straight up swept Chicago at Indoors and took home that title with ease and came to the Stag-Hen and swept CMS too.  No biggie.  Captain Rafe Mosetick has defined this team with heart and everyone else has basically followed.  Jonathan Jemison has been everything that I could have hoped for in a top-ranked freshman as he’s clinched a few big matches already early in his career.  Right now, the only question for Emory is if anyone is going to beat them and that is a big if.  Now, if you ask D3Central, he’ll say that they beat Case but only did so by taking 2 points from CJ Krimbill.  Well, that’s what happens when you have a surprisingly good #1 doubles team and a player at the top of the lineup that could be the best in the country.  It’s time to stop thinking that Krimbill is invincible and time to start thinking that championship teams beat you in every way possible.  Emory is a championship front-runner.  Everyone else is looking up.

Carnegie Mellon Tartans: Grade B+

The CMU Tartans are my second ranked team and they deserve a grade of B+.  I was going to lower this to a B but decided on a B+ because they really can’t complain with a ranking of #6 in the nation at this point.  Coach Girard bet heavily on Indoor Nationals against Pomona and he was rewarded with that decision.  His team took out Pomona to put the UAA firmly in a place where they could maybe claim 3 Pool C berths.  The Tartans have found three excellent freshman contributors in Daniel Levine, Vayum Arora, and Chaz Downing.  Levine has been nothing short of excellent this year and he has been incredible to watch so far this year.  Color me impressed.  Arora and Downing are the type of players at the bottom of the lineup that every team needs.  Doubles has been shored up to the Coach Girard and Belmonte’s credit, as they’ve taken a lead on pretty much every opponent they’ve faced this year other than CMS (and they gave that up).  The thing that I would be worried about if I were CMU is the fact that their juniors have been less than stellar this year.  Kirkov has fallen off a cliff, Zheng is a bit overmatched at #3 singles, and Wadwani had to miss Indoors with a sprained ankle.  You can’t rely on freshmen deep in the UAA Tournament and NCAAs, unless you get really lucky.  CMU needs it’s older statesmen to step the f up and take this season under their hands.  Not to mention Abhishek Alla, who continues to be a mystery to this day.  CMU’s season will come down to getting 3^rd or maybe 4^th in the UAA tournament.  That means beating Case and Wash U.  Good luck, Tartans.

Johns Hopkins Blue Jays – Incomplete

Can you grade a team that has literally played 0 important matches this year?  Since Hopkins missed out on Indoors, they basically have been cruising down in Baltimore with nothing to show for it.  They did beat W&L, which is good, I guess, but they only beat them 6-3.  That being said, they played some bizzaro lineup that I haven’t seen before.  Something is up in Hopkins and I am not sure if they are good or bad.  I feel like I’m recapping NC Wesleyan here or something.  The Jays will always have MVP Buxbaum, who didn’t happen to play against the Generals, but the rest of the lineup is a huge mystery.  My gut feeling is that this Hopkins team doesn’t have the fire in their bellies that can capitalize on their talent, making them a projected #12-15 team in the nation.  Something about this just feels funky.  They canceled their match against Bates and their next big match will basically be against Carnegie Mellon on their home courts.  Maybe they’re looking to surprise everyone there.  We shall see.

Mary Washington Eagles – F

The Eagles season has been a straight up disaster.  After starting the year by beating Stevens and NC Wesleyan, which might be the Eagles only way of staying in the rankings at this point, they’ve lost to Pomona, Redlands, Bates, W&L, and last but not least, Franklin & Marshall.  That’s right.  Franklin & Marshall.  That’s the same team that lost 8-1 to UMW’s conference foe Christopher Newport.  Mary Washington’s season has gone way downhill and that has started ever since their Spring Break.  I don’t know what happened in California, but Stratton Gilmore decided to walk out on his teammates afterwards, which is a story for another day.  I won’t speculate as to what happened but everyone knows how I feel about those that quit the team.  Again, he may have his reasons, but from what I’ve heard about character, who knows what really happened.  Mary Washington now does not have the guns at the top of the lineup OR the depth to compete with anyone in the top 25.  They are clearly now susceptible to upsets from unranked teams that play good doubles as well.  Watch out because Newport is right on these Eagles’ backs for the rest of the year.

Sewanee Tigers – Grade: B

Back to the positives.  Sewanee has been a nice little surprise this year both from a team and an individual standpoint.  Now, I’m not someone that normally takes moral victories out of things, but the Tigers have performed well against top teams.  They took a 7-2 loss against Emory where they were able to take two doubles matches, which has to feel good.  They were able to take two singles matches against Carnegie Mellon (ranked #7) at #1 and #2 singles, with #3 singles losing in a three-setter.  Those are some great strides for the Tigers and they have to feel good about those losses, despite them being losses.  Let’s talk about some wins too.  Sewanee has taken out their conference foes as well as Chapman, Trinity CT, and Whittier.  They’ve won all the matches they’ve needed to win and that’s a good thing.  They have Jack Gray blossoming as a future impact player (he already is one) and a strong base in players.  The Tigers have a lot they can build on this year after years of trying to make it work.  Rock on, boys.

Washington & Lee Generals – Grade: A-

W&L has finally cracked back into the top 20.  I remember the years when I would face off against W&L and they would be a top 20 team that could challenge but not necessarily beat a top team on a given day.  They may have gotten back to that point this year.  Unfortunately for them, a series of injuries has taken out their top 2 players for the next month at least.  Heart-breaking considering they are coming off their biggest win in years against Mary Washington.  W&L has really humbled itself in the past year or two and they have a group of guys that are pretty enthusiastic about their accomplishments nowadays.  The Generals got their signature win this year but now they have to protect it.  Next man up is the saying, and I for one hope that they can fend off Swarthmore this weekend.

NC Wesleyan Battling Bishops – Grade: D

Much has been made of the previous NCW tweets, which have been since deleted.  Now, let’s turn over a new leaf and take NCW for what they are.  A team that doesn’t have the talent to compete in the top 30.  This is a team that needs more international talent to compete with the big boys and it doesn’t look like they are getting that anymore.  While they may bring in “top juniors” from other countries, if they don’t measure up to the 3-stars in this one, it makes no difference.  This is a program that is seemingly on the way down.  Don’t forget, this was a team that was in the top 5 maybe 4-5 years ago! Now, this is a team that isn’t even making D3Central’s Power Rankings.  Whether that’s a grudge or not, we’ll leave that for another day.  NC Wesleyan has lost against Stevens, UMW, and Newport this year.  Lucky for them, they’ll qualify for the tournament, but honestly that isn’t even good enough.

Swarthmore Garnet – Grade: C+

Swarthmore has basically done that I thought they would and not done everything that I thought they wouldn’t.  That was confusing.  Swarthmore has losses against Whitman, Bates, and Stevens, all teams that were ranked ahead of them to start the year.  The loss to Stevens especially hurts because they lost 5-4 and that really was a golden opportunity.  They have ANOTHER golden opportunity in their next match against W&L and if they don’t win that match, they basically deserve a D on the season.  A crippled top 20 team is ripe pickings for Swarthmore.  I hope the pressure doesn’t get to them (or do I?) and they bring the fire in what should be a very competitive match.  Swarthmore can improve or lower their grade by a full letter depending on what happens this weekend.

Christopher Newport Captains – Grade: A-

Newport has done everything this year that has been asked of them.  They started off the year giving us one of the best wins of the year by smoking NC Wesleyan and haven’t looked back.  By virtue of their win against F&M, they are technically the top dog in the CAC, which could mean their first tournament berth in years.  Now, I’m not going to get too ahead of myself because the Captains are far from a guarantee to win the conference tournament.  It’s very hard to take out an established team in a conference tournament.  There’s just that aura.  CNU has a solid result against Redlands as well as they were taken out 5-4 in a close one.  The Captains are right there, they just need to finish.  This could be one of their only chances in the next few years.  Shout-out to Sonny Dearth and Eric Shulman.

INDIVIDUALS UPDATE

YES.  I am the first one to get out an individuals update, which is so me.  I’m always the first one to do things around these parts.  I’m not going to do my normal percentages article (where I apparently don’t know how to add) but I will name the guys that I expect to make it and who’s on the bubble.  Doubles is a bit trickier since there are some teams *cough* Hopkins *cough* that haven’t even played yet, but whatever.  Let’s just get the update.  I’m almost done with this live set anyways.

Guarantees

Rafe Mosetick, Emory

Jonathan Jemison, Emory

These are my only two guarantees right now for the tournament.  It’s pretty crazy that the two of them are the only guarantees at the very moment, but that is life in the ASouth singles landscape right now.  Mosetick is obvious, as he’s beaten pretty much everyone under the sun except Sam Geier, who is in the Central.  He’s taken out Schober, Alla, and won his regional ITA in the fall.  Mosetick is in.  Jemison is a bit of a tougher sell, but he made the finals of the fall regional, as well as taking out Roddy when they played Sewanee.  The tiebreaker against Levine of CMU is sure to be huge at the end of the year as he was able to notch a big in-region win there as well.  Jemison basically has an argument against every other player in the ASouth. Combine that with his school name and the person that does the rankings, Jemison is in.

Highly Likely

Mike Buxbaum, Hopkins

Abhishek Alla, CMU

Avery Schober, Sewanee

These three players have a ton of NCAA experience between them and it looks like they’ll all get another shot this year.  Buxbaum hasn’t played an important match yet because he was pulled from the W&L match (that’s weak, Hopkins).  He will get in on name alone and he’ll probably notch a few wins in the process.  Alla has had a rough go of it, but luckily he only lost to Yasgoor, Mosetick, and Krimbill at Indoors.  He does have a loss to the listed Schober, but also notched a win against Butts of CMS.  Match that with his regional ITA championship in the Fall, and this is a guy that will definitely make it.  Schober has that win against Alla which will keep him floating in the top 4-5 of the region.  Kudos to these guys, they probably have nothing to worry about.

Standing Alone

Michael Holt, W&L

This is going to be a tough one.  Holt has really done a lot of great things for W&L and has wins over Griffin of UMW, Reed of Newport, and Dulle of Redlands.  He hasn’t lost a match at #1 singles and won a decent amount, so hopefully this time of missing a month won’t hurt him too bad.  He really should be in in his senior season.

Uncertain

Daniel Levine, CMU

Sebastian Sikh, NC Wesleyan

Brandon Griffin, UMW

Mark Fallati, Swarthmore

CJ Antonio, Oglethorpe

David Reed, Chris Newport

For Levine, I think he simply has a great national argument to make it in.  He has wins over Maasen of Pomona, Fojtasek of Case, a three set loss to Jemison, and a win over Hull of CMS.   However, he has a huge loss to Eric Roddy of Sewanee and that is going to kill him come regional time.  It’s hard to get over direct wins even if your out-of-region resume is great and we might see a little of that here.  Sikh of NC Wesleyan lost a match to Cerny of CNU, which is heart-breaking because he shouldn’t have been playing #2 in that match anyways.  That might be a back-breaker of a loss for him.  Griffin of UMW has not been great this spring either, with losses to Holt of W&L and Kaplan of F&M.  Griffin probably shouldn’t be in, but is a de-facto #1 singles player for UMW which sometimes gets people in.  Fallati has a good case because he’s a strong player, but he has 0 in-region wins.  Antonio is always a guy I like to mention and he has an out-of-region win against Brady Anderson of Coe.  Meh.  Reed of Newport has a loss to Holt, but has a win against the F&M (thus an indirect over Griffin) and also beat Mark Sokolov of NCWes when he was ridiculously playing #1.  Reed might be the guy that gets in here.  Overall, this is a total mess and I can’t even begin to imagine who’s in right now.

Honorable Mentions

Eric Roddy, Sewanee

Jeremy Dubin, Hopkins

Jordan Krasner, W&L

Alright, it’s 12:45, and I’ve officially finished the Alison Wonderland set from Ultra 2016.  It’s time to finish this thing up and get you the official ASouth State of the Region Address.  A lot of things are still to be figured out on the individuals side, but a lot of the team stuff has been resolved already.  Now, we just wait on Hopkins to get their season actually started.  I hope y’all enjoyed, considering I got this thing out because Northeast can’t hold up his end of the bargain.  Shout-out to you, D3NE.  Towel-whipping amongst the bloggers all day. Anyways, please provide your thoughts on this because I think there is a lot of argument to be had for a lot of these players and teams.  I’m not always right, just most of the time.  Actually, it’s not much at all.  Come at me in the comments. ASouth, OUT.