NE STATE OF THE REGION (abbreviated?)

Hello again, boys and girls. It pained me to be away from The Blog over such a busy tennis weekend, but you don’t turn down March Madness tickets when given the chance! Last week was one of the biggest NE weeks of the season, and seeng as I missed out on some of the festivities I thought I should give everybody a quick State of the Region to get us all caught up. I started writing this on Monday, but it turns out, that I write #WallsOfText, and D3AS wrote his in about 12 minutes last night. Oh well. Last week started with Wesleyan beating Trinity Tx, and ended with Bowdoin beating CMS, but many more things happened in the middle. Here is a mini look at the week that was, a mini look at the week that will be, and some grand perspective as to what it all means. Or something like that. I should mention that these are not the top-10 teams in the region according to our power rankings, but according to the ITA’s regional rankings, which will likely change on March 31st. It’s also important to note that the #’s used are last week’s Blog Power Rankings. New Power Rankings should be published later this afternoon. Get excited…

#2 Middlebury (#1 in the region):

Last week: #2 Midd def. #11Wesleyan 5-4. The Panthers have to be thrilled with overcoming a doubles deficit against a very talented singles lineup like Wesleyan’s but the fact that they were in that hole to begin with is worrisome. They swept Bates last weekend, who generally plays good doubles, and maybe Wesleyan has finally bucked its trend of mediocre doubles, but if the Panthers are really in the tip-top tier (with Emory), they need to hope that last weekend’s doubles performance was an aberration. Coach Hansen had to like his team’s singles play though, especially at the bottom of the lineup. Farrell did his thing, and beat a very capable Michael Liu 4&1, Campbell rolled past Eusebio 1&2, and Derbani and Van der Geest won in straight sets. The writers and I penciled Midd’s depth as by far its weakest point; however, I think Yadav is one of the best #6’s in the country, and Roberts played #1 not too long ago. Most impressive.

This week: Midd’s spring break trip starts this weekend and takes on Lewis and Clark, PP, and CMS in DIII competition throughout next week.

Outlook: Next week is a biggy for the Panthers. Midd vs PP and Midd vs CMS are GIGANTIC matches when it comes to Pool-C, ITA rankings, and eventual NCAA seeding. We will preview Midd’s battles on 6th street at some point next week, but for now Midd is still very much in the top throng of title contenders. There may be a slight gap between Emory and the field, but we’ll have a better idea starting next week.

#4 Amherst (#2 in the region):

Last week: #4 Amherst def. #9 PP 6-3, #4 Amherst def. #15 Redlands 7-2, #5 CMS def #4 Amherst 5-4. Wow. Where to begin? Amherst’s win over PP was as close to dominant as it gets with a final score of 6-3. Both Jeffs doubles wins were by multiple breaks, and all four of their singles winners won in straight sets. PP needed a super just to scrape out a 3rd point. Revzin at #2 was quite intriguing, but he’s now playing #4 again as we’re used to (more on that in a moment). Herst’s dubs was actually tighter against Redlands than PP, with Amherst winning a breaker to take the 2-1 lead, but the singles scores were (again) not close. Herst lost 20 games combined at the 5 singles spots in which they won, including a 1&0 throttling of Dulle (#1) by Zykov. Redlands is not a top-10 team, but this was an impressive singles performance nonetheless. Finally, the CMS match. This was as disappointed as I’ve been in a while with any of my NE teams. After PP and Redlands, a couple of the other writers and myself believed that the top title-contenders were Emory, Midd, Amherst, and everybody else. After last Saturday (CMS over Herst and Midd just outlasting Wesleyan), feelings had changed again. CMS hadn’t been playing its best tennis, but the Stags won the important points on Saturday. #1 dubs went to the Stags 7-5 in a breaker, and the other two matches split with both coming in as 8-6 decisions. From there on out it was a split decision, with CMS winning the top-3 spots and Amherst taking the bottom-3 spots. I have faith in Amherst’s big guns to right their wrongs when before we get too far into the season, so the depth was quite encouraging.

This week: Amherst has a recovery week, with split-squad matches against Colby and Harvard on Sunday. Reid and Zykov could be fun, but who knows whether Amherst will play an A and a B-team, or if they will truly split. Either way, your guess is as good as mine in terms of who plays where in which match.

Outlook: Even with the loss to CMS, Amherst’s win over PP (and Redlands) cemented their status in the Pool-C picture. This wasn’t really in doubt, but considering the craziness of this young season it was still a big win to have. However, the loss to CMS, coupled with CMS’ subsequent loss to Bowdoin (more on that below), throws a bit of a wrench into Amherst’s long term plans. Now, Amherst has to beat either Bowdoin or Midd, or they have to play a totally clean schedule the rest of the way and have a couple things break their way if the artists formerly known as the Jeffs are going to end up hosting their own region. A NESCAC team that doesn’t host its own region will in all likelihood have to travel to play at another NESCAC team’s region just to make it to the quarterfinals. That’s tough sledding.

#6 Bowdoin (#3 in the region):

Last week: #6 Bowdoin def. #35 Trin Ct 9-0, #6 Bowdoin def. #16 Whitman 8-1, #6 Bowdoin def. #30 Skidmore 7-2, #6 Bowdon def. #5 CMS 7-2. A BIG TIME week for Bowdoin, and likely their biggest win since their upset win led them to the quarterfinals of NCAAs a few years back. Bowdoin’s start to the season could not have gone better, with the Polar Bears taking down all four ranked opponents with relative ease. I’m going to glaze over the Trinity Ct and Skidmore matches, because we’ll get to those matches later on. Bowdoin’s win over Whitman was especially impressive considering half of their team was yacking the entire night before. Bowdoin defaulted at #6 singles, and still took down a perfectly decent Whitman team 8-1. However, that was not even close to the best part of Bowdoin’s week. The Polar Bears went into Claremont on Sunday and absolutely beat down the Stags on their home courts. Bowdoin swept the Stags in dubs, with only one match being anything close to a decent match. The Polar Bears also dominated the lower matches, taking #3, #5, and #6 in straight sets. Trinka lost to the reigning player of the week in Hull, but Tercek took down Butts in a super for his 2nd great win at #1 so far this week (Hewlin). Bowdoin can’t expect to sweep all its high profile opponents, but the can expect to be added onto the NCAA title contender list after this week!

This week: Bowdoin beat Chapman 8-1 on Tuesday, and plays #26 Stevens on Thursday.

Outlook: As I just said, Bowdoin can’t expect to sweep all it’s high profile opponents, but the fact that the Polar Bears haven’t had to face a doubles deficit yet is a wonderful step in the right direction. It’s been their fatal flaw over the past couple years, and a Bowdoin team that plays good doubles is a top-5 team in the country (check back for our new Power Rankings later today). Bowdoin will be heavily favored against Stevens on Thursday, and the Polar Bears can head home, regroup, and turn their attention towards conference play. Even if Bowdoin loses to Amherst and Midd, they will likely end up hosting their own region at NCAAs, and have a relatively clear path to the quarterfinals!

#11 Wesleyan (#9 in the region):

Last week: #11 Wesleyan def. #10 Trinity Tx 6-2, #2 Middlebury def. #11 Wesleyan 5-4. Wesleyan had possibly the biggest win in program history last Monday, and almost topped itself on Saturday when they took a 4-2 lead on Middlebury. Wesleyan has been playing doubles better than they ever have before, and if they keep it up, they will prove that their new high ranking is not a fluke. Yadav’s loss to Van der Geest was surprising, Eusebio has had his ups and downs, Liu plays tough competition but will get his share of wins. However, the biggest differences for the Cards this year have been Chen, Samson, and Roberts. Chen and Samson have been HUGE in taking down some of the best players at their positions in the country, but Roberts has been losing and losing consistently. He should fare better at #5 than #3, and he’ll get his share of wins, but he’s also a streaky player so he could lose a couple more matches down there as well.

This week: Wesleyan is off until Conn College on April 2nd, followed by a BIGGY with Bowdoin on April 3rd. I’ll get to the Wesleyan vs Bowdoin match in about 10 days, but right now the advantage goes to Bowdoin in a tight 6-3 contest.

Outlook: Wesleyan is in a bit of a tough spot. They have a great win over Trinity Tx, but their loss to PP really puts them in a bind when it comes to Pool-C. They will need to beat any of the top-3 NESCAC teams if they are to have a shot at NCAAs. Bowdoin would be a great start! Either way, if Wesleyan finishes in the 4th/5th region of the ‘CAC it will be considered the best year in program history. Even though I doubt Coach Fried will lose sight of that, he has his Cards playing great tennis and believing they are ready for more.

#14 Williams (#4 in the region)

Last week: Williams started its season Monday with a win over Point Loma.

This week: 7-2 win over Point Loma on Monday. Wednesday, Williams plays #9 PP, and on Saturday the Ephs go to the desert to take on #15 Redlands. These matches are monumental with regards to the Pool-C outlook. If Williams can beat both teams, it all but guarantees that Pool-C will be comprised of only NESCAC and UAA teams. I like the lineup that the Ephs played on Monday against Point Loma. Grodecki continued his emergence, and is now playing #1 dubs along with #3 singles. The talented sophomore is one of many reasons to be excited about the Ephs this season. They always play good doubles, and will have to against another talented doubles team in Pomona. I think Williams takes a 2-1 lead on PP, and then finds points at #3, #5, and either one of the top two spots to eke out a 5-4 win. Both Raventos vs Yasgoor and Shastri vs Maassen should some excellent tennis. PP needs to have JK back in its lineup if they are to have a chance in this match, but even if he does play he’ll have a tough matchup with Grodecki. Williams should be favored against Redlands later in the week, but that could also be a close match depending on what happens in the doubles. The rest of the week will be an excellent early season barometer for the Ephs, and we should have a pretty good idea about where they stand after Saturday.

Outlook: It’s too early to tell, but Williams has the potential to really mess with some the current Pool-C outlook this week. With wins over PP and Redlands, Williams will jump into the top-10 and have a great argument that they deserve to get in over a team like CMU. However, a loss this week and their Pool-C hopes are close to nonexistent. It’s sad, but that seems to be the stage of life we’ve come to with only 5 Pool-C teams making the tournament. I have a good feeling about this Williams team, but I’ve been duped before.

#22 Tufts (#6 in the region)

Last week: #22 Tufts def. Vassar 7-2, #22 Tufts def. #16 Whitman 5-4, #22 Tufts def. #24 UCSC 8-1. While the Vassar match was a confidence booster, the two wins in a single day against Whitman and Cruz was very impressive! The Jumbos have basically not been tweeting at all so far on their trip, but their roster (as expected) has seen some different looks so far on the trip. I expect yesterday’s roster from the Stevens matchup to be the closest to their real lineup, but we could very well see a different twist on #6 today against a very deep Chicago team. The Jumbos have been pretty good in doubles so far, something that has haunted them in the past, but the biggest surprise has been the re-emergence of Jay Glickman. The once vaunted 4-star is now a senior with precious little time to impact the DIII landscape (unless, of course, he becomes a n assistant coach or blogger).  If Glickman can provide some w’s in the top-1/2 of the Jumbo lineup, then it makes guys like Ali and Jacobson that much more dangerous at the bottom.

This week: Tufts beat Stevens 6-3 yesterday after overcoming a doubles deficit. Tufts takes on #3 Chicago on Wednesday, Colby on Thursday, and #15 Redlands on Saturday. Looking at the rest of this week, Tufts has the tougher part of its spring break still ahead. Chicago didn’t look all that fantastic beating Stevens 5-4 on Monday, but will still be heavy favorites today against the Jumbos. If Tufts can take a doubles lead, they might be able to instill some panic in the Maroons. Side note, I’m not sure if Kranz is going to play today, which is probably bad for the Jumbos. Overall I think Chicago rebounds a little bit, and beats Tufts relatively handily. The Colby match tomorrow is only important for Telkedzhiev’s NCAA hopes, and he’s not even a guarantee to play. Saturday against Redlands is Tufts closest and biggest match remaining. It’s an absolute must-win if the Jumbos are going to remain in the hunt for a Pool-C bid. Tufts matches up fairly well, but again it has the look of a match that will come down to doubles. I like Tufts to beat Redlands, in a close 5-4 or 6-3 win.

Outlook: Tufts has done everything right so far, but has the brunt of their work still to do. A close loss against Chicago (or even a win) would be great, but it’s not necessary. However, wins against Colby and Redlands are. Tufts is still in total control, which is not always the case at the end of March, but the next couple days should be telling.

#25 Bates (#7 in the region)

Last week: #25 Bates def. #29 Swarthmore 7-2, #25 Bates def. #23 Mary Washington 6-3. Bates vs. Hopkins was cancelled. After a rough California trip, Bates has earned back some of my trust over the past couple weeks. They had an easy win over a talented MIT team, and then won two matches over the weekend that were certainly closer than their final scores. Both matches involved doubles sweeps, but then both matches still became dog fights, with Bates getting multiple 3-setters in both matches, including two 7-6 in the 3rd wins against Mary Wash to clinch the match. Then, apparently the Bates/Hopkins match, which has become a staple over the past 5 years, was cancelled. Rumor is that the match was cancelled because Hopkins forgot to book the indoor courts. I understand this is only a rumor, so I’m not going to go full ASouth style rant, but I have to give a little. I know Hopkins does not have indoor courts on their campus, but this seems utterly ridiculous. How does a coach forget to book indoor courts. Baltimore ain’t southern California. It would also be a non-issue if it were a conference match that could easily be rescheduled. But when a team has to fly (I assume?) to play you, there should absolutely be a back up plan in case of inclement weather. Bates fans will probably throw out some conspiracy theory about how Hopkins didn’t want to play Bates indoors and blah blah blah. I do not believe Bates would have beaten Hopkins, even if they had played indoors, however it seems quite discourteous. Now, after all that, I fully expect somebody to tell me that the actual reason for the cancellation was that Bates had to catch an earlier flight or some garbage like that.

This week: Bates is off this week. Nuff said. They next play at Brandeis on April 3rd.

Outlook: Without one, or maybe even two BIG TIME NESCAC upsets, Bates has no shot at a Pool-C bid. The potential Hopkins match could have helped, but even that would likely not have been enough given the Bobcats’ losses to both PP and Redlands. However, Bates is playing better tennis and I will be excited to see how the Bobcats do against a team like Tufts when the time comes and a spot at NESCACs is on the line.

#26 Stevens (#10 in the region)

Last week: The Ducks were off while prepping for their Cali trip.

This week: After a tough 5-4 loss to #3 Chicago on Monday and a 6-3  loss to #22 Tufts yesterday, Stevens takes on  #6 Bowdoin tomorrow, and #9 PP on Friday before heading back to New Jersey. Chicago took a 2-1 lead on Stevens after doubles on Monday, which I assumed all but ended that match. Instead, even though Chicago clinched relatively early on (straight set wins at all the even spots), Polk beat Kranz 6-4 in the 3rd, Henry beat Leung 7-5 in the 3rd, and Heinrich walked all over Chua, beating the All-American 1&0. All three singles wins were great for the Ducks, and I thought they would inspire a better performance against the Jumbos the following day. I looked to be on the right track when Stevens jumped out to a 2-1 doubles lead yesterday afternoon. However, Tufts won 5 matches in straight sets to put an end to the Ducks upset bid. Foran moved up to #3 for the match, and was forced to retire after only a set. Matt Heinrich tweeted after the match yesterday about “bad sportsmanship being the elephant in the room,” so I assume there was at least a tense atmosphere during the match. Heinrich came back to beat Telkedzhiev in 3-sets, and remain perfect on the week. That will be put to the test tomorrow against Tercek and Bowdoin. Even if Heinrich comes up with two more points (very possible), Bowdoin’s depth should be simply too strong for the Ducks. I think this match could stay close for a while, but I like Bowdoin in a 6-3 or 7-2 win. Similarly for PP, the Hens depth is their strength, and while Stevens is clearly deeper than years past (see that Chicago match), they will be slightly outgunned while trying to attack the coop.

Outlook: No need to fret, Stevens fans, without a major conference tournament upset you’ll still have your chance at NCAAs come May. Even if the Ducks go 0-for this week, they still will have chances to hold and even improve their national ranking with matches against Skidmore, CNU, and TCNJ later this season.

#30 Skidmore (#8 in the region)

Last week: #9 PP def. #30 Skidmore 5-4, #30 Skidmore def. Cal Lu, #6 Bowdoin def. #30 Skidmore 7-2. A second rough PP outcome in as many years for the Thoroughbreds. PP didn’t play its full lineup against Skidmore, again, and it almost cost them, again. PP swept in dubs, and Skid won 4/6 singles matches and 3 of the 4 wins were in straight sets. Very encouraging for Skid, even if PP wasn’t at full strength (no Bello or Malech). The Cal Lu win was nothing short of expected, though Leung came up big again with a super win over Valdez. Against Bowdoin, the T-Breds picked up a nice win at #3 dubs, and Leung beat Tercek 4&4, but the encouraging singles play from earlier in the week was forgotten, as Bowdoin cruised to four easy singles wins and took the final point in a super (Wolfe).

This week: Skidmore heads home, takes on DI Boston University on Saturday, and takes on #4 Amherst next week.

Outlook: All in all, a fairly disappointing week for Skidmore, although they will surely take away some moral victories. Now it’s time to head home, shore up the doubles, and get ready for more Liberty League action. The T-Breds do have a fun out of conference match with Stevens in the middle of April, which is a likely NCAA preview given both team’s locations and likelihood of winning their conferences.

#35 Trinity Ct (#5 in the region)

Last week: #6 Bowdoin def. Trinity Ct 9-0, Sewanee def. Trinity Ct 7-2, Trinity Ct def. Vassar 6-3, Trinity Ct def Chapman 5-4. Even with a .500 week, Trinity continues to disappoint. The wins over Vassar and Chapman look even less exciting than they did at the start of the season, and a match against a top-30 team in Sewanee just wasn’t that close. Segal must be playing well to be up at #2 now, but Traff’s continued absence (any info people?) is just another nail in the Trinity coffin.

This week: Nothing this week, but the Bants get Amherst on March 31. That should be fun.

Outlook: The wins over Vassar and Chapman might keep a top 35 ranking in the next ITA rankings, but will certainly be good enough to keep the Bants in the top-40. The rest of the year only presents a couple of minor challenges to that ranking. Colby, Wheaton, Conn, and Hamilton will all be licking their chops for a cheap way to get some national attention. As of now, I don’t think any of those upsets happen; however, if the team continues to struggle we may see the always exciting snowball effect. This is a team that will surely be relegated to D3Regional status for 2017.