Given that Joe Lunardi starts publishing Bracketologies in the pre-season, I didn’t think it was too early to get started on our men’s tournament Bracketology. Basically every team has played a D3 match, (*gives Williams the side-eye*) so we have a decent idea of where teams stand. If you have no idea how NCAAs work, please reference this clear explanation from a post last year that spells out the rules:
http://www.division3tennis.com/the-bracketology-edition-1/
For this year, there are two minor changes. First, the Independent Pool B has been reduced from four teams to three teams. This is because the NEWMAC (MIT’s conference) has gone from a Pool B to a Pool A conference. Historically, MIT has qualified through Pool B and now they will be qualifying through Pool A. The whole tournament is still 43 teams. For Pool A, I used the teams who won the conference last year as the Automatic Qualifier, so if you have questions about that, please reference this link:
Our Pool B teams are: Whitewater, Cruz and TCNJ
Our Pool C teams are: Bowdoin, Chicago, Case, Carnegie and Amherst
The bracket below is how I think things would be structured if the tournament started today. Obviously, there are a ton of matches to be played and there will inevitably be movement in the rankings. We will continue to discuss, and I’ll try to keep this Bracketology updated every two weeks or so. But if the tournament started today, I see things like this:
1 Emory, W&L*, Sewanee, Juniata, Gwynedd-Mercy
2 Midd*, Skidmore, TCNJ, Hunter, Nichols, Messiah
3 Bowdoin*, Stevens, MIT, Yeshiva, Southern Maine
4 CMS*, Whitman, Tyler, Cruz
5 Chicago*, Kenyon, Gustavus, Coe, Grinnell, Edgewood
6 Case*, Whitewater, Kalamazoo, Carthage, Rose-Hulman, John Carroll
7 Carnegie*, Trinity TX, NC Wesleyan, Wilkes, Franciscan, Grove City
8 Amherst*, Hopkins, Mary Washington, Colby-Sawyer, Ramapo
* denotes host team and the number represents the team’s overall seed. For example in the quarterfinals, 1 would play 8, 4 would play 5, etc.
Observations
1. Things will change a lot between now and six weeks from now. This is my guess as to what the bracket would look like if the tournament started tomorrow.
2. Pomona-Pitzer, currently ranked #8, misses the tournament. In reality, they will be ranked #9 after yesterday because Bowdoin will jump them after their win against CMS. The Hens have an absolute must-win on Wednesday against Williams. If they lose this match, they are theoretically then behind the NESCAC #4 and they are also behind the UAA #4 after their loss to CMU at Indoors, which CMU followed up by losing to Case. It’s almost safe to say that if Pomona loses Wednesday, their only ticket to NCAAs is beating CMS and winning the SCIAC. If the Hens win against Williams, they still may need to beat Middlebury on March 29th to get a Pool C bid. The way things have gone this season, it’s likely Pomona will need to beat Williams and then either CMS or Midd if they want to make NCAAs this year. The other possibility is Case or Carnegie loses to a teens-ranked team (Kenyon) and do themselves in, but I don’t think this is that likely.
3. Right now, Pool C is 2 NESCAC teams and 3 UAA teams. There are not a ton of matches that can change this given that Carnegie has a direct win over Pomona, Case has a direct win over Carnegie and Bowdoin has now beaten the #1 team in the West. As I said previously, Pomona really needs to make something happen if they want to qualify for the tournament. If they don’t, it becomes a question of intra-conference matches. The NESCAC has 5 teams we know are good as well as Williams who should be very strong. The UAA has 5 teams we know are good. Things can start getting a little messy if Wash U beats Case or Chicago and messes with the current UAA standings. I think it’s a likely scenario that the 4 vs. 5 UAA quarterfinal is a do-or-die match. Carnegie will likely be one of the teams and right now Wash U is the other, but that could change if they beat Case or Chicago in three weeks. Keep in mind that in 2012 and 2013, Wash U dropped out of the top 15 in the country mid-season, only to have a late season resurgence and make the Final Four both years. I know a lot of people are counting out Wash U, but that’s probably a mistake.
4. The bracket above has some intriguing matches. We have potential quarterfinals between Emory-Amherst and CMS-Chicago. Additionally, a Sweet 16 match between Carnegie and Trinity TX could be a classic.
5. If anyone has information on teams in the smaller conferences that are thinly covered by us, please let us know and it is appreciated.