It’s been a long time, folks. I’ve been on a bit of a break with a ton of different things on my mind, but I have been staying hyper-aware of what is going on in the DIII landscape. In fact, we’ve got a Tennis Recruiting article that is being published during Signing Week, which will be our second year running, and we’ve got a ton of big matches to recap and preview throughout the week, as always. DIII tennis is at a high now that the NESCAC has come to town. With most of the NESCAC teams playing their first week of matches out in California, that means the time has come for what should be some of our most hotly debated articles yet. Yes, that means Pool C and Bracketology articles. Year after year, Pool C determines the fate of like 14 of our top 20 teams, with many of them going home with no NCAA Tournament experience. This is an absolute travesty and I’m not going to waste my breath complaining about it, because the ITA, NCAA, and everyone in between knows how much I hate the current system. If you are new to the blog or DIII Tennis and have no idea what I’m talking about, see the below explanations of what I’m talking about.
As a refresh, this year there will be 5 Pool C or “At-Large” bids for the NCAA tournament. These will consist of non-winners of the Conference Tournaments. There are really three conferences to look at when looking at Pool C bids – the NESCAC, the UAA, and the SCIAC. Don’t look anywhere else. If you’re a longtime follower of the blog, you should already know this stuff! If you’re a first-timer, ask whatever questions you like in the comments section! It’s time for me to list out your Pool C contenders, their chances of making it in this year, and what they need to do the rest of the year to get into the Big Dance. Without further ado, let’s get started.
Assumptions:
- Please note I am assuming CMS wins the SCIAC, because that’s probably what’s going to happen.
- Please note I am assuming that Emory wins the UAA, because that’s probably what’s going to happen.
- Please note I am assuming that a random conference winner like Hopkins won’t screw everyone over by losing in their conference tournament.
- Right now, my thoughts are that the Pool C Breakdown will be 2 NESCAC spots, 2 UAA spots, and 1 SCIAC spot. This is not set in stone obviously.
Okay, that’s all the assumptions. Normally, I go team by team with Remaining Schedule, Notable Wins, Losses, and that whole jazz. There’s way too many teams in this right now to do that whole thing, but I will touch on every single team and what I think about them. Let’s start by taking a look at what things look like now, according to ITA National Rankings.
The 5 Pool C Teams Right Now
Chicago Maroons, #4 in the Nation – The first team in through Pool C at this rate is Chicago, who are ranked in the Top 5. Chicago has wins over Trinity TX and Case Western, which are their main wins keeping them at #4 in the country. The win over Case is huge as you will see later. Remember, indirect wins mean a ton in Pool C, especially because we need all the information we get. Chicago is a basic lock for the tournament in my eyes. However, they have the following remaining on their schedule – Stevens, Tufts, CMS, Case Western, Wash U, GAC, and the UAA Tournament. That’s a lot of matches to potentially mess up on and the CMS match is huge considering they have a big match against Bowdoin today.
Case Western Spartans, #5 in the Nation – Case is riding the coattails of their big Indoors victories. They have now taken out Wash U and Carnegie, their two main rivals for their Pool C spot in the UAA. Case conveniently does not play any NESCAC teams this year and their only remaining big matches are against Wash U again, the UAA Tournament, and Johns Hopkins post UAAs. The match against Wash U is probably going to decide who gets the higher seed at UAAs. This is a big difference – lose and you play CMU in the 4/5 match, win and you play Brandeis in a way easier match. To make Pool C, Case needs a third place finish in the UAA Tournament. You’ll see why later.
Carnegie Mellon Tartans, #6 in the Nation – Carnegie is riding the coattails of their one big Indoors victory, but it was a massive one. Their win against Pomona was just so absolutely huge because Pomona now gets to win them matches by beating NESCAC teams. Pomona has already beaten Wesleyan (huge), Trinity TX (semi-huge), and will play Williams and Middlebury next week (massive). CMU is rooting hard for the Sagehens to win those matches. Actually, the whole UAA is rooting hard for Pomona to win those matches. Pool C has become a battle of conference strength and the UAA currently holds the strength due to their Indoors performances (fair or not).
Amherst Jeffs, #7 in the Nation – Amherst is currently projected in the NCAA tournament as the second to last bid in at #7 in the country. I will repeat that. They are the #7 team in the country and they are receiving the second to last “at-large” bid in the country. That leaves a ton of worthy contenders out. Anyways, Amherst has one big win already on their Spring Break – against Pomona. That means they are safe from Pomona passing them UNLESS Pomona beats CMS sometime later this season. However, Amherst lost a huge chance to book their ticket to NCAAs by losing to CMS in a heartbreaker. They know have the same wins and losses as Carnegie, and due to that they are one of the last teams in. They have all their NESCAC opponents later this year, meaning matches against Middlebury, Bowdoin, Williams, Tufts, and a scary Wesleyan team. This last spot is totally up for grabs.
Pomona Sagehens, #8 in the Nation – Pomona holds the key to everyone’s Pool C fate and they are also the last team in the tournament at this rate. Since everyone goes out West for Spring Break, Pomona has the opportunity to make up for their losses… or also dig themselves a huge hole. They have one big win so far this year and that’s against Wesleyan, who turned around and took out Trinity TX. Pomona also has taken out Trinity TX, shielding them from a resume’ argument at least. Pomona also has direct losses to two teams ahead of them in CMU and Amherst, meaning an indirect loss to Case Western as well. They have Williams, Middlebury, and CMS remaining. If they can beat Williams, they put themselves in a very strong position to take the last Pool C bid. However if they don’t, they put both the UAA and themselves at jeopardy of losing spots to the NESCAC.
Quick Thoughts about the First 5
As I mentioned, the battle for the 5 spots becomes a battle between conferences. Are you confused? The UAA currently owns 3 of the spots (Case, Chicago, Carnegie), the NESCAC owns 1 spot (Amherst) and SCIAC owns 1 (Pomona). This is because the UAA teams have indirects or directs over Pomona, while Pomona has that win against Wesleyan, who beat Trinity TX. In this day and age, Pool C is about signature wins. You’ll see in the next few paragraphs that the teams missing out on Pool C do not have any direct signature wins over their Pool C opponents. If you are to make it, you need it. That is why the UAA holds the power right now and will until one of the remaining teams notches a big one. This could happen, because there are so many teams left to play. Let’s get to the remaining teams.
Outside Looking In
Wesleyan Cardinals, #9 in the Nation – Wesleyan is ranked in the top 10 and is MISSING the tournament right now. Are you kidding me? What other sport does that happen in? Like honestly, there are teams such as Nichols making the tournament and they wouldn’t touch any team within the top 20. We should be measuring skill in sports. Not making this some sport that gives everyone a chance. Anyways, Wesleyan has a big win in Trinity TX, but unfortunately for them Trinity is not a Pool C contender and also doesn’t have any direct Pool C wins. Wesleyan lost their biggest chance to make it by losing to Pomona after a doubles sweep. They also lost a huge chance this weekend against a NESCAC foe in Middlebury, who would have been knocked down big-time from their perch as presumed NESCAC favorite. Wesleyan now has to navigate their strong NESCAC schedule (Bowdoin, Amherst, Tufts, NESCAC Tournament) to make the tournament. That means a win over Amherst or Middlebury as things stand. Good luck, Cardinals.
Bowdoin Polar Bears, #11 in the Nation – The team that must be kicking themselves right now has to be Bowdoin. They started the year ranked ahead of Case/Carnegie, but have dropped simply because their schedule hasn’t been strong. They are currently playing CMS in what is their biggest match of the year to date. If they beat CMS, they earn indirect wins over Carnegie and Amherst, jolting them into the Pool C picture. Also, CMS plays Chicago later on this week, which is going to be huge if one of the NESCACs can take out CMS. Bowdoin could be that team. After CMS, Bowdoin would basically have to beat one of Middlebury/Amherst to make Pool C while ALSO fending off Wesleyan. What a match today’s match is.
Wash U Bears, #12 in the Nation – We live in a world where Wash U is THREE spots away from the Pool C spot?! Wow. Wash U’s Indoors is coming back to really bite them in the ass, as they now have losses to Case Western and Trinity TX. Notice that loss to Trinity TX. That means they have indirect losses to Pomona, Wesleyan, and a direct loss to Case Western. I’m not sure that’s a hole that any team can get out of. However, they have chances to redeem themselves. They play Trinity TX, Case, and Chicago later on this year. Win two of those, and they put themselves in the driver’s seat to be in Pool C. They then have the UAA Tournament to also redeem themselves. Wash U is a key component in Pool C because if they throw out duds the rest of the year and somehow get 3rd in the UAA Tournament, they might knock the UAA out altogether. If you’re not following, Wash U’s resume might be terrible and they might spoil the dreams of Case and CMU. It’s definitely a possibility.
Williams Ephs, #14 in the Nation – A dark horse right now is Williams, who hasn’t played one match yet this year against a top ranked team. No one really knows what to expect from Williams and they have a ton of big matches coming up. Williams has the following matches remaining – Pomona, CMS, Redlands, Amherst, Middlebury, Wesleyan, and Bowdoin. All of them are Pool C contenders. The NESCAC is actually rooting for all the NESCAC teams to take out SCIAC teams because they want to own those Pool C bids. CMS is the key here – the NESCAC needs someone to beat them to gain wins over Carnegie. Williams is one of those contenders.
Redlands, Tufts, Bates – The final 3 contenders for Pool C this year are these three teams. Redlands is basically out of the tournament since they have so many losses to direct Pool C contenders, including most of the NESCAC as well as Whitman, who has lost to everyone else. Tufts is the team to watch here because they just came off a big win against Whitman, which puts them ahead of everyone and right behind Williams. Tufts plays Chicago, Redlands, and then the rest of the NESCAC moving forward. They have must wins against Redlands, Williams, Wesleyan, and Bowdoin in my opinion. This is a tough road for any of these three teams. Bates, I think, is out of the Pool C picture. They’ve already lost to Pomona, CMS, and Redlands, basically meaning they are royally effed. Sorry, Bobcats.
Final Thoughts
This is going to be an absolutely wild ride. Right now, the UAA reigns supreme. But, depending on today’s events and future matches, things could go haywire. Since the NESCAC all play each other and still have their sets of out of conference matches to go, the UAA is standing on a precarious position right now. The UAA is basically done with out of conference play other than Chicago, which doesn’t matter for Case/CMU because none of them have beaten Chicago anyways. Keep all of this in mind as we continue to see the results file in, and tune into the CMS/Bowdoin match happening now. Bowdoin is up a break on the bottom two doubles spots. Crazy stuff.
Also to finally conclude, the Guru has come back with a Bracketology that will go out tomorrow (Monday). Welcome to March Madness, DIII Tennis style. It’s one of the best times of the year and we’re here to outline what’s about to happen. ASouth, OUT.
I don’t think schools in the ‘cac could ever play indoors bc of conf rules regarding when spring sports start. They can’t play a match before spring break or something…
Who thought giving all conf winners tourney bids in d3 tennis was a good idea? Its a shame that too 10 schools don’t even get into tourney while so many scrub schools do
Just curious about your collective thoughts about participating in Indoors in light of the limited Pool C spots. It seems like the results from Indoors have hurt Wash U and Pomona. And they certainly didn’t help any team that beat Trinity TX. On the flipside, it has helped Case tremendously both years that they hosted. (I think the Case/Kenyon match-up in Claremont would have been interesting…)
However, back to Indoors, given that it comes so early in the season, favors indoor teams, and doesn’t include any signature teams from NESCAC or CMS, is it really worth it for teams other than the UAA to play? Pool C predictions, at the moment, seem to favor some UAA teams who played Indoors over teams like Wesleyan.
I think hindsight is 20/20. Just because it was at Indoors doesn’t make it different. They were big matches – when you schedule big matches, they will affect your season greatly. Each coach has to determine the benefits of playing Indoors and whether to do it. That decision then gets baked into your schedule for the rest of the year. Case has decided to play a ton of tournaments, they wanted the most chances. CMU decided they wanted that first round with Pomona and that’s it. Pomona probably figured a win against CMU would be huge because they only play NESCAC teams otherwise.
I wish the NESCAC could come to Indoors. It’s a shame. However, in past years, UAA teams such as Case/CMU have faltered by losing to Trinity TX, Kenyon, and Hopkins at Indoors. It’s really up to the coach and his thoughts on the team to decide whether Indoors is worth it.