2016 Season Preview: Amherst Lord Jeffs

Location: Amherst, MA

Coach: Todd Doebler (2nd season)

Preseason ITA Ranking: 7th

Preseason Blog Ranking: 5th

Twitter Handle: @JeffsTennis (not used that frequently)

Starters returning from 2014 NCAA title team: 4

Overview

There has been an awakening. Have you felt it? That’s right, boys and girls, Amherst won the random number generator for my first Season Preview for 2016. It’s not like I write these in alphabetical order or anything. As you can see by the informational stats above, we like Amherst a little more than its ITA ranking. The Jeffs were virtually tied with Trinity Tx for the #4 spot, and should be considered one of the handful of serious national championship contenders. Amherst is bringing back its studs, and will be led by three returning starting seniors in Yaraghi, Solimano, and Revzin. They should be properly motivated again after being “upset” in the NCAA quarters by a young and very talented Chicago team, and Coach Doebler should be more settled in his Amherst-style of life. We know that’s the case, because look at the recruiting class that Doebler is bringing into Amherst next year. Well snip my pickle and call me Shlomo, two 5-stars and four 4-stars (including one who was just demoted from 5-star to 4-star status) should be a nice way to try and stave off the lull of losing multiple starters. Although the conference continues to improve, the Jeffs will again be one of two favorites to win the NESCAC and take a top 8 seed at NCAAs. Even if they lose their annual tilt with Middlebury, a 2nd place ‘CAC finish is almost always good enough to earn a top-8 seed and host an NCAA regional. They are chalk-full of talented freshmen, and if one or two can contribute then this team will be a trendy NCAA pick. As is our way, I’ll give you a little look at the lineup, schedule, and throw an overall prediction down at the end of the preview. Enjoy!

LINEUP ANALYSIS

STUDS

Andrew Yaraghi, Senior, UTR=12.63, Lineup Range: #1-#3. One of the country’s best, Yaraghi is also one of the country’s most solid. He rattled off 9 straight wins to end his 2015 campaign, running off basically all of his NE competition in April and May. He’s been a stud since he came in 3 years ago, and even though he’s played anywhere from #1-#5 in his career he must have close to as many wins as anybody else in the country. My ITA totals have Andrew at 46-6 in DIII spring dual matches, with loses to Ballou (Cal Lu), Berg (Bates), Lane (CMS), Butts (CMS), Reid (Colby), and Sanderson (Skid) over 3 years. That’s pretty insane. He should be as close to an NCAA lock as there is, and should be in the conversation for top player in the region (along with Farrell and maybe a couple others). Yaraghi did pull out of the ITA due to an injury, but as long as he stays healthy we should expect to see a whole mess of W’s next to the senior’s name in 2016.

Anton Zykov, Junior, UTR=12.44, Lineup Range #1-#3. Zykov is kind of Herst’s secret weapon. The junior from Washington, D.C. was undefeated after being moved down from the #1 spot last spring, and is also a nasty doubles player. If Anton has continued to improve his game over the past semester+, he should be one of the filthiest #2’s in the country. While his dreams may be more of the team variety, I wouldn’t be surprised if Zykov ends up as a top-5 player in the country next year. He did have a bit of a nagging ankle injury last year, so let’s hope he stays healthy in the spring.

Michael Solimano, Senior, UTR=12.20, Lineup Range #1-#3. You all know how I feel about Solimano’s game. It’s unique, and it’s deadly. The Jeffs are lucky to have 3 guys who could play any of the top-3 lineup spots and nobody would even give a second glance. Although Mike did make a surprisingly early ITA exit (2nd round loss to Fergus Scott (Bates)), he did take home the NE ITA doubles crown. Solimano should anchor the team at the top of the doubles lineup, and is the closest thing to a lock at #3 in the country this year. To be clear, the dude has 3 DIII dual match losses in the past two seasons, and none came at #3.

DEPTH

Aaron Revzin, Senior, UTR=11.90, Lineup Range #4-#6. The other 1/2 of Amherst’s top doubles team, Revzin is the 3rd senior to return from last year’s starting lineup. A good fall win over Sadowsky (Williams) coupled with a not so good straight set loss to Schidlovsky (also Williams) shows that Revzin will be most effective in the bottom 1/2 of the Jeffs lineup. With just 3 DIII losses last spring, Revzin should be a very dangerous guy at #4, but has the opportunity to be one of the best #5’s in the country. Rev-O has always been more of a doubles guy, but if Amherst is going to take down Middlebury the Jeffs will need him to step up an anchor the team’s depth as well.

Zachary Bessette, Freshman, UTR=12.33, Lineup Range #4-bench. Here come the wild cards. Bessette was the best of the Amherst freshmen in the fall, but his reputation was built more on losses than wins. He pushed Smolyar (Midd) and Tercek (Bowdoin) to 3 sets at different points in the fall and tallied a straight set win over Glickman (Trinity Ct) as well. While he was not taken to the prestigious Big Green Invitational (Dartmouth’s fall tourney that usually includes schools like Yale, Brown, and a couple of other DI teams, Bessette was put in the A Flight at Bates’ tournament so Doubler believes he has an edge over the other freshmen. The Florida Frosh could be an integral part of Amherst’s lineup come springtime, and should be able to make an immediate impact if he earns that opportunity.

Justin Sun, Freshman, UTR=10.97, Lineup Range #4-bench. Justin was the other freshman who got the A-Flight nod at Bates this fall. There he took down Sanderson (Skidmore) in an impressive superbreaker, before getting rolled by Rosen (Bates) in the 2nd round. Unlike Bessette, Sun wasn’t chosen to play at the ITA, so I’m using that as a tiebreaker for now. Like Bessette, Justin came a long way to be at Amherst (Cali baby), and seems like he could make an impact as early as this spring. However, he will have to fend off some seasoned competition, such as…

THE ESTABLISHED COMPETITION

Andrew Arnaboldi, Junior, UTR=11.36, Lineup Range #6-bench. If I had to start an Amherst lineup tomorrow, not knowing anything about how the guys have been playing in the past 2 months, I’d throw Arnaboldi out there as my #6. The guy is a competitor who has come up clutch before, and that’s what I want especially as we get later in the spring. I don’t believe he has played at all this fall, but he’s a junior so he’s very likely abroad. He had wins over Midd, Williams, Carnegie, and Hopkins last year, including a couple of clinches. He has been a hard worker in the past, so as long as he’s not pulling the prototypical semester abroad slack job, he has a good chance to earn a lineup spot.

Ben Fife, Senior, UTR=10.97, Lineup Range #6-bench. Amherst’s enigma. Every team has one, but few as talented as Fife. The dude busted onto the scene and was a power at #4 his freshman year. He has played very few A-team matches in the past two years, and although he had a good doubles fall he appeared to be a bit out of his element at the Big Green Invitational this fall. While the Visored Viper is certainly talented enough to make any lineup, his past two years would suggest that he would be on a very short leash. Perhaps his final season will be motivation enough. If Fife competes at the level we know he can, Amherst becomes a whole other level of dangerous.

THE NEWBIES 

Jesse Levitin, Freshman, UTR=12.06, Lineup Range #5-bench. Levetin played B-Flight at Bates this fall, which would technically put him behind fellow freshman Bessette and Sun. For whatever reason (high UTR?), our Fantasy Draft lineup forecasters had him in at #6. He very well might end up there, but he seems like at least a small underdog to me. Jesse had a solid win over Pickering (Skidmore) at the Bates tournament, and pushed Jacobson (Tufts) to a super in the following round. That alone should make him a viable #5 or #6, but he’ll need to outlast his teammates to get to that point.

John Heidenberg, Freshman, UTR=11.53 (10%), Lineup Range #5-bench. Heidenberg was given a shot at the ITA, which likely means that he (at one point) was considered one of the top lineup contenders. He got an unlucky draw, and fell to Raventos (Williams), but pushed him to 3 sets. His UTR is very unreliable through only one college singles match, so don’t read too much into it. But I trust Doebler, and there must have been some reason that Lil’ John got the ITA berth.

Ben Birkenfeld, Freshman, UTR=10.09 (40%), Lineup Range #5-bench. A perfectly solid win over Segal (Trinity Ct) in the 1st round of the B-Flight at Bates, followed by a close straight set loss to Ali (Tufts), sums up another decent fall for an Amherst young guy. The UTR is a little low, but the New Jersian is another guy who could end up impacting the bottom of the Herst lineup this spring.

SCHEDULE ANALYSIS

http://athletics.amherst.edu/sports/mten/2015-16/schedule

The Jeffs didn’t play their usual fall dual matches against Carnegie and Hopkins for whatever reason, and that means (for better or for worse) that their Pool C slate is clean headed into the spring.  Like most NE teams these days, Amherst starts out with a spring break trip to So. Cal. The Jeffs have a couple split squad matches to start the trip, then a biggie at Pomona. Last year the Hens defended the coop and took down the Jeffs 6-3. No excuses here, Amherst’s full lineup played (albeit with different doubles pairings) and there was only one singles match that PP won in 3 sets. This will be Amherst’s 1st test of 2016. Throughout the week, the Jeffs take on their usual list of non-DIII opponents, but they end the week at Redlands on Friday and at CMS on Saturday. Amherst should be a favorite against Redlands, but CMS is a different story. While the Stags will be a different team without Wood, Dorn, and Marino, they still have one heck of a lineup. That, and they will be coming off the Stag Hen so the team should be battle tested already. If it were both team’s 1st match, it might be a toss-up, but I give an early edge to the defending champs. I think Amherst avenges its Pomona loss, takes down a game Redlands squad, and falls just short against CMS.

After Cali, Amherst heads home and takes on its usual slew of East Coast opponents. The 1st big match should be April 2nd at home against an upstart Tufts squad. As always we will bring you more in-depth previews once the spring season rolls around, but this is a matchup that the Jeffs should not overlook. After Tufts, Amherst goes on a sneaky tough 3-match road trip to Skidmore, Bates, and Bowdoin. Skid and Bates shouldn’t pose too much trouble, but both teams are decently deep and with a doubles sweep could pull off an upset. The marquee matchup here is Bowdoin. I’m high on the Polar Bears this year, and they should be behind only Midd and Amherst as NESCAC favorites. The issue here is doubles. In years past, dubs has killed Bowdoin, and if Amherst has a lead going into singles then it should be all she wrote. After the Maine swing, has Wesleyan at home, then Midd and Williams on the road to end the regular season before NESCACs at Bates (NESCACs at Bates? Seems weird but it’s on Amherst’s schedule). Other than CMS, Midd is the only match where Herst might come in as underdogs, and it should be the premiere NE match of the season.

OVERALL SEASON PREDICTION

All in all, this is a pretty common schedule for NE teams. An early west coast swing, followed by a rigorous NE schedule that includes the majority of the NESCAC. If Amherst’s season plays out according to preseason ranking, the Jeffs would likely end up somewhere in the #5-#8 range in the country and host an NCAA regional. As long as Amherst avoids a mini upset from a team like Pomona or Bowdoin, the Jeffs should be in good position to earn a #1 seed at NCAAs. If they can beat either Midd or CMS in addition to a clean slate, they should be in the mix for a top 4 seed, and a (supposedly, we saw what happened with Chicago last year) easier route through NCAAs. Making an overall prediction in December is a little ridiculous, but it’s what you all come here for and why we get paid the big bucks…

I like Amherst to avenge its Pomona loss from last spring, beat Redlands in a somewhat close match, and drop a close one to CMS. Then I like the Jeffs to handle their business against the NE, including tough matches with Tufts and Bowdoin. Amherst ends its regular season with an upset over undefeated Middlebury and enters NESCACs as the #1 seed. There, they fall to Middlebury in the NESCAC finals, and earn the overall #6 seed at NCAAs. After an upset win over CMS at the 1st round of NCAAs (yes, this season is just full of revenge), the Jeffs matchup up with Middlebury for the 3rd time this season. Amherst can’t overcome a doubles deficit, and Midd’s depth clinches the match. Whoever wins the Amherst/Midd battle goes on to beat Chicago and win the NCAA championship.

There, NE bias mixed with incessant rambling without too many facts to back it up. I guess I do channel D3AS after all. I’ll do my best to get another NE season preview out for your Christmas weekend reading. Until then, have a holly jolly day.