Location: Brunswick, ME
Head Coach: Hobie Holbach, 9th year
Twitter Handle: @BowdoinWTennis (doesn’t seem to be very active)
2013 National Ranking: #6
2014 National Ranking: #6
2015 National Ranking: #8
2016 Pre-Season National Ranking: #8
Intro:
Bowdoin has established itself as an elite team, as it has been ranked in the top 10 for 4 straight years now. They are trying to take that next (most difficult!) step of top 3 in the country and have come close a couple of times. Last year alone they lost to #3 Amherst 4-5, #2 Emory 3-6, and #1 Williams 4-5. I believe that this is the year that they will get that big win that they need in order propel themselves that little bit they need to get into the next group. One characteristic of Bowdoin is that they are match tough. Coach Hobie puts them through arguably the toughest schedule in the country. This can pay off big in that the team is ready for any competition that comes their way, but is also risky in that all it takes is one or two injuries to unravel a season quickly. So far they’ve been holding up, so I will expect the same for this season.
Lineup Analysis:
Let’s take a look at my projected lineups for Coach Hobie’s Polar Bears.
UTR Power6 Rating (the sum of the supposed top 6 players on a team): 53
#1 Singles: Joulia Likhanskaia (9.49), junior
Likhanskaia is the reigning national runner up (lost to Eudice 5-7 in the 3rd set in the NCAA Singles Finals!) but already has some blemishes on her record this year, with a straight set loss to Gancayco of Williams and a three set loss to Louks of Tufts. I don’t doubt that she will gain her form during the spring season but the team will need her to be nothing short of solid at the top spot in order to have a chance at team success.
Fall results:
def Dubinsky (Wes) 6-4, 6-0
def def Gianelos (Babo) 6-1, 6-0
lost to Gancayco (Williams) 6-4, 6-4
def Giannetti (Skidmore) 6-0, 6-3
lost to Louks (Tufts) 3-6, 6-1, 10-6
def Chen (Wellesley) 6-3, 6-3
#2 Singles: Tiffany Cheng (9.11), senior
Cheng is the lone senior and obvious leader on this team. The team will rely on her leadership as well as her steady performance at the #2 spot. She doesn’t play with a lot of power but she has been one of the most reliable competitors in the region.
Fall results:
def Iwasaki (Tufts) 6-1, 6-1
def Stojkovic (Wellesley) 6-0, 6-0
lost to Eudice (Wes) 6-3, 6-2
lost to Louks (Tufts) 6-2, 6-2
def Huang (Wellesley) 6-1, 6-1
def Keller (Tufts) 4-6, 7-5, 10-5
#3-#6 Singles: Kyra Silitch (8.96) junior, Tess Trinka (8.49) sophomore, Samantha Stalder (8.18) junior, Maddie Rolph (8.89) freshman
Silitch, Trinka, and Stalder have all seen significant playing time over their years on the team and should be able to compete with any player.
Fall results:
Trinka def Bush (Williams) 6-1, 4-6, 10-7
Trinka def Adamo (Amherst) 4-6, 6-1, 6-0
Trinka def Miller (Tufts) 6-3, 6-2
Trinka lost to Shin (Williams) 6-0, 6-2
Trinka def Chen (Wellesley) 6-1, 6-2
Trinka def Karamercan (Tufts) 6-3, 6-4
Trinka def Iwasaki (Tufts) 4-6, 6-4, 11-9
Rolph lost to Monteagudo 6-4, 3-6, 10-4
Rolph def Stojkovic (Wellesley) 6-4, 6-3
Rolph def Silverman (Bates) 6-1, 6-0
Rolph def Greene (Skidmore) 6-2, 6-1
Looks like juniors Silitch and Stalder were abroad for the fall.
Doubles:
As usual, it’s hard to know what the doubles teams will be before the season starts. Likhanskaia/Cheng has been a strong team in the past and got to the finals of the finals of the regional ITA. Coach Hobie did some mixing of the teams in the Bowdoin Invitational so we shall see what teams emerge for the season. Sometimes a change in teams is what can propel a team forward.
Schedule Analysis:
Here’s Bowdoin’s Schedule: http://athletics.bowdoin.edu/sports/wten/2015-16/schedule
3/14 v #12 Sewanee
3/15 @ #7 Pomona
3/16 v #13 WashU
3/17 v #30 Trinity (CT)
3/19 @ #4 CMS
3/21 @ #34 Chapman
3/22 @ #18 Redlands
4/2 @ #9 MIT
4/3 @ #17 Wesleyan
4/6 @ Bates
4/9 Hamilton
4/10 #3 Amherst
4/15 v #16 Skidmore
4/16 @ #5 Middlebury
4/17 v #2 Emory
4/23 #1 Williams
4/30 @ #24 Tufts
5/6-5/8 NESCACs
Talk about a tough schedule – all but two of the teams that they play are ranked in the Top 40, and they are playing seven teams in the Top 10! And, as usual, they also have a spring break trip to SoCal that sees them play seven matches over a span of two weeks. I believe their two toughest matches during that spring break will be their first two matches. The first one because not only is it their FIRST MATCH, it’s also their first match outdoors, which is always a tough adjustment to make, no matter who you play. The second match (vs. Pomona) will be a tough one because Pomona is a team filled with young talent, which is always dangerous, especially at the beginning of the season. I’m going to predict that Bowdoin will have a close win over Sewanee but a tough loss to Pomona, which will actually speed up the ‘toughening up’ process. I will go out on a limb and say that I don’t think Bowdoin will lose any more matches over their spring break, including to #4 CMS (West wrote in his CMS preview that the Athenas are going to take this match so this will be a showdown indeed!!!) The Bears should get routine wins over Chapman and Redlands to round out their West Coast trip.
Back on the East Coast, Bowdoin starts out with MIT. While MIT can be full of surprises as they showed us last spring, I’m going to go with Bowdoin here. Wesleyan is also a dangerous team with their young talent, but I’m picking Bowdoin to take that match as well. Their next big match is against Amherst on 4/10, and while Amherst reeled in the #1 ranked recruiting class for 2015, I will pick Bowdoin to pull off a close upset here, which should give them some confidence.
Looking at the rest of their big matches (Midd, Emory, Williams, Tufts, and NESCACs), they are all very important and should be great college tennis matches. I’m actually not sure who will win those matches until we get the season underway, and see who is playing with confidence at that point in the season. But since I’m about 99.99% sure that Bowdoin will earn an NCAA Pool C bid when all is said and done, the most important match becomes their match against Middlebury in the NCAA Regional Final. Because of geography, they always wind up playing each other for a ticket to the NCAA Elite Eight. I’m calling Bowdoin for the win, 5-4.
D3NEW’s 3 Keys to Bowdoin’s Season:
#1. Win a match against one of the top 3. This season I think Bowdoin will do just that and take AT LEAST one of the top three down.
#2. Stay injury free. This is very important, as they play such a tough and intense schedule that even one injury can throw things off.
#3. Beat Midd in the regional final. Because of geography, every year for the past number of years, Bowdoin and Middlebury have squared off in the NCAA Regional Final. They have basically alternated who won, with Midd taking the 2015 match. I think that Bowdoin is just a little bit tougher and more experienced this year, and I’m predicting that they will win that regional final and then go on to do some damage in the Elite Eight. Bowdoin has been to the Elite Eight 3 times (2008, 2012, 2014), but has never made it to the Final Four. This is the year!