Here comes another stellar article from the Texas Fanatic, his first season preview. As long as he keeps writing these fantastic articles, I will keep pawning my work off on him. Soon we’ll get him his own log-in. I honestly have nothing to add, and I feel his analysis is spot on.
Coach: Russell McMindes, 7th Year
Location:San Antonio, TX
Preseason Ranking: 8
Twitter handle: @TUtennis
Cool Hashtag: #fortheboys, #ftb
Overview:
Last year, we saw the Trinity Tigers come roaring out of the gate in the Fall with dominant performances by their singles and doubles players. The Tigers looked to be one of the Top 4 teams in the country coming into the Spring season. Then the disappearance of Paxton Deuel from all team activities left everyone in the country asking, “what will this team be this year.” I believe Coach McMindes answered this question with a resounding “BOOM” at National Indoors with a dominant performance to take the title. The Tigers rolled through their season only taking losses to the 2,3,4,and 11 teams in the country on their way to a Top 10 season ending ranking. All in all, a triumphant season with the supposed turbulent nature of the end of Fall and start of the Spring season. This showed, once again, that Coach McMindes is a master of his lineup and a warrior on the practice court.
This year the Tigers performed brilliantly in the Fall to place their name once again on the tongues of the prognosticators of National Championship predictions. This team has all the tools necessary to compete with any team in the country. Once again, Coach McMindes will have to find some magic from the middle of his lineup and some key wins in a mediocre doubles lineup. The fact still remains that Trinity will start the year with the #1 doubles team in the country and two players both ranked in the Top 15. A junior and senior laden team primed to make a huge run. This is a recipe for success at any level, and I believe Coach McMindes has his sights set on the ultimate prize this year being delivered to him at the “ZOO.”
Lineup Overview:
#1 Singles – Paxton Deuel (Sr.) – The buzz of the Southwest regional this Fall was the return and dominance of Paxton on the singles court. Paxton showed he is back to his Spring 2014 form and ready to lead his Trinity Tigers to the promise land. Coach McMindes has a tendency to play his ITA winner at #1 to start the season and there is no reason for anyone to think any different this year. Paxton has shown he can be in and out of form throughout the year. So, expect him to get clipped 3 or 4 times this year by the top #1 guys. The most likely scenario is that Paxton goes 8-4 in his 12 Top 25 matches at #1.
#2 Singles – Adam Krull (Sr.) – Adam’s only loss of the Fall was to his teammate Paxton in the finals of the Southwest ITA. A match that was decided by one or two points in the end. Adam and his partner Matt Tyer ran away with the ITA Doubles National Championship this Fall. Leaving everyone to think that Trinity has found a solution for their end of season doubles debacle last year. Krull is a Top 10 #1 level player in the country and will dominant the court in all 12 of his Top 25 matchups this Spring. The likely scenario for Adam is that he gets dinged one time, on a road trip, in adverse conditions this Spring season. I see Adam having an 11-1 record at two and being a Top 8 regional selection for individual nationals this Spring.
#3-#6 – Wilson Lambeth (Fr.), Clayton Neiss (Jr.), Chas Mayer (Jr.), Matt Tyer (So.) – The decisions made, in the next four spots, by Coach McMindes will be the make or break point for this team. The analysis is that Lambeth looked great in a monster quarterfinal match against Fagundes(UTT) in the Fall. Clayton Neiss did not play singles in the Fall but has never played below Chas Mayer. Chas was the third highest seed, by Coach McMindes, in the Fall lineups for the Southwest ITA. If the Trinity Tigers have a weakness in the Spring it will be their 3 and 4 spots. Neither, Neiss nor Mayer have shown over the past two years that they can continually compete nationally at anywhere higher than 5. A Freshman playing #3 is never a lock and a doubles specialist trying to fit in to singles is usually reserved for well seasoned upperclassmen. I see no real rhyme or reason to putting any of these guys at 3 or 4, but Coach McMindes has always shown a proclivity for big and tall guys, being Lambeth, or a serve and volleyer, being Tyer, to play #3.
Doubles is still going to be a sticking point for the Tigers this Spring. Two points difference in the Fall ITA and we are not talking about Tyer and Krull as the #1 team for Trinity. The obvious choices for the beginning of the year will be Krull and Tyer at #1, followed by Deuel and Neiss at #2. This is a formidable looking lineup and should be able to win both spots on a regular basis. Yet, the idea that Krull and Deuel are not playing #1 together leaves me to think that the upsetting team dynamic from last year might still be having some lingering effects on this years team. Look to Coach McMindes to play around with all three teams early this year and not wait until their conference tournament to make adjustments again. Coach McMindes is not one to make the same mistake twice, year after year.
Schedule Analysis
Here’s Trinity’s 2016 schedule
Top 25 matchups: 12
Prediction Nationally: 9-3
Predicted Losses: Chicago, CMS, Emory
Trinity starts their 2015 Spring season with a couple D1 schools and the #2 JUCO team in Abilene Christian Indoor tournament. The team then breaks into their D3 schedule at National Indoors with a first round matchup with Chicago. This will be a monster match and the winner will make the finals, while the loser gets fifth place. After Indoors, Trinity has a few solid matches, another D2 and Texas JUCO to keep them primed for their Cali trip. Then off to the Stag-Hen for a first round matchup with Kenyon and a semi-final match with CMS. A good match to set our eyes on will be the Tuesday after the Stag-Hen versus a very deep Wesleyan Cardinal team. I am definitely putting the Tigers on ALERT for this Cali trip ending match. The Tigers then come back to Texas for a well deserved two week hiatus before hosting Gustavus Adolphus and Wash U. They end their regular season with a quad match in San Antonio with Emory, Whitman, and UTTyler. Look for Trinity to be dominant at the end of the year and solidify a Top 8 spot heading into Regionals. Coach McMindes has tapered the schedule a bit from last year and has setup his team up for a huge run deep into the National Tournament.
Conclusion:
This team is top heavy in singles and doubles is a huge question mark. How come I say this? Well, the Tigers had the #1 doubles team in the country beginning the year last year, and ended the year with massive doubles changes and a losing record at #1 and #2. Coach McMindes took his 2014 team all the way to the semifinals. This team is very similar and will count on 3 doubles and 3 and 4 singles to dig them out of close matches. Look for Trinity to be the Pomona Pitzer of this year and win 5 to 7 of their Top 25 matches with a score of 5-4. The Tigers are experienced and will not shutter at the moment in anyway or any venue. Watch for team chemistry to build as the year progresses and the guys really pulling for one another as usual. The coaching staff will have to stay on top of their doubles lineup with fluid changes and strong decisions. I see the Trinity Tigers making a quarterfinal run and could be in the National Semifinals at the end of May. A rematch in the National tournament with Chicago or Middlebury will be a fun match to watch. I can’t wait to see this Tiger team do their thing this Spring!!
It’s hard to reconcile “mediocre doubles line up” with the # 1 ranked doubles team in the nation. Yeah – they have won two of their matches in tie breaks – but they still won. Isn’t that what good teams do? Keep in mind that at Regionals Krull had to play 2 single matches and 2 doubles matches to win the Regional doubles title that last day. No one else in the doubles line up had to do that.
Despite a lack of dazzle in doubles at regionals, with the exception of Krull/Tyer, they are much stronger in doubles than most teams. A plus for the doubles is there are a lot of good doubles players to pick from to find the perfect chemistry. I don’t think there is any lingering team dynamics from last year, I just think that Tyer was a huge addition to the doubles line up and pairing him with any of the top two or three players gives you a nationally ranked doubles team.
Trinity has an interchangeable 1 & 2 (Krull & Deuel) and an interchangeable 3 -5 (Tyer, Mayer, Lambeth). The real question is who will play six. Both Tyer and Niess were recovering from injuries during Regionals. With a fully recovered team I would expect Niess to play six. Other contenders could be Dunn, Crawley, Brown.
With all this said I would predict a line up closer to this:
#1Krull/Tyer
#2Deuel/Lambeth
#3Mayer/Niess/Dunn
#1Krull
#2Deuel
#3Tyer
#4Mayer
#5Lambeth
#6Niess/Dunn/Brown/Crawley
watergirl
Unfortunately, Connor Dunn is not on the Trinity team anymore. Brown and Crawley had horrendous fall campaigns and I doubt we will see them in any match this Spring. Tilden Oliver could spring up in a match or two. No way Paxton plays on this team if he does not play #1. Paxton, did play with a big and tall Nico Moreno, in dubs, a few years ago. So, a matchup with Lambeth, would be a nasty combo. I like that combo. That means Neiss and Mayer at 3 dubs. That would be a lot of experience and quite frankly they would just be better at tennis than most #3 teams.
I meant Guinn. I think Brown won the Consolation and Crawley was just recovering from an injury. Crawley had a Tennis Recruiting ranking high of 193 and a UTR of 11 versus Oliver’s Tennis Recruiting ranking high of 382 and UTR 10. I think Paxton plays. He is having fun and it is his last year of eligibility. But with both playing it does give the Coach some flexibility.