2016 Women’s Season Preview: #5 Middlebury Panthers

Location: Middlebury, VT

Head Coach: Mike Morgan, 10th year

Twitter Handle: @mwtpanthers

2013 National Ranking: #5
2014 National Ranking: #10
2015 National Ranking: #5
2016 Pre-Season National Ranking: #5

Intro:

Hello People! I am really excited to see the demand for more coverage of the women’s side of D3 Tennis! We will kick off the Northeast region with a review of the #5 Middlebury Panthers, coached by Mike Morgan. Middlebury is a team that has established itself as a consistent Top 10 team in the country for a while now. They have all the parts that make a great team – a strong #1; a middle of the lineup that can compete with anyone; a bottom of the lineup that will usually win; experience playing against other good teams; experience playing at the final site; a good head coach. But what’s it going to take for this team to have a legitimate shot at a national championship? They certainly have the talent to do so. In my opinion, the 3 things that can push this team to the championship are senior leadership, a signature win, and some luck.
The 3 seniors on this team are Gerger, Amos, and Shackelford. If this very talented team wants to make a run for the national championship, it’s imperative that the seniors do everything they can to get the whole team on the same page. It’s now or never for these seniors. In particular, Gerger will have times where she needs to put everyone on her shoulders and will her way to wins. She will face tough competition at the top spot this year, with so many talented #1s. I see the top #1s in the region as Eudice from Wesleyan and Raventos from Williams, and I think Gerger has the game to break into that elite group with some good wins. And she has something they don’t – she is a senior. I know I’m harping on this senior thing a bit but I feel it’s an important part of college tennis. The level in D3 keeps going up, with so many talented freshmen coming in each year. Some quit along the way, some get lost in the shuffle, some get their butts kicked by the sophomore slump, but those that are better for it and emerge as strong seniors – those are the players that take their teams to special places.
Secondly, they need a signature win. Basically, a win against either #1 Williams or #2 Emory will give them the much needed confidence to make a final push at the end.
Anyway, the final factor is luck. We all know that by the end of the season, crazy things happen, things that are not controllable – injuries, matchups, other teams unexpectedly winning/losing, etc. If one or two things can fall in Midd’s favor during the NESCACs and NCAA Regionals, they can make a return trip to the Elite 8 where anything can happen.

Lineup Analysis:

Let’s take a look at my projected lineups for Coach Morgan’s Panthers. Again this year, I will use UTRs. For those of you not familiar with UTR, UTR stands for Universal Tennis Rating, in which each player has a number between 1.00 and 16.50 that indicates a player’s average level of play over his or her last thirty matches played during the most recent past twelve months. For more in depth information, take a look at universaltennis.com

UTR Power6 Rating (the sum of the supposed top 6 players on a team): 53

#1 Singles: Gerger (9.73), senior
The number one thing keeping Gerger from having a consistently dominant season is her injuries. She hasn’t had a season in quite some time where she’s been able to string some matches together. It looks like this fall was no different, with her playing singles and doubles in the Williams Invitational but only doubles in the ITA Regional and not at all in their own Invitational. Hopefully she will be healthy for her final season.
Fall results:
def Shin (Wil) 3-6, 6-3, 10-6
lost to Yu (Wes) 6-1, 6-1
lost to Eudice (Wes) 7-6, 6-0

#2 Singles: Bondy (8.86), junior
While Fields was abroad, Bondy had a breakthrough fall, making it to the semifinals of the ITA Regional, losing to Yu of Wesleyan in 3 sets. Bondy has always been super athletic but a little on the inconsistent side. I’m putting her at #2 above Fields; a close call but Bondy has the higher ceiling.
Fall results:
def Stone (Wil) 6-3, 6-3
def Greene (Skid) 6-1, 5-7, 11-9
def Gancayco (Wil) 6-3, 6-2
def Das (MIT) 6-4, 6-2
def Stone (Bates) 6-1, 6-0
def Huang (Well) 6-1, 4-6, 6-4
def Gancayco (Will) 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
lost to Yu (Wes) 6-4, 6-2
lost to Raventos (Wil) 6-7, 6-3, 10-8
lost to Ghosh (Amh) 6-4, 7-5

#3 Singles: Fields (9.55), junior
With Fields at #3 this is looking like a solid lineup. Fields has been to the NCAA singles tournament both her freshman and sophomore years, and she should win most matches down at #3.

#4 Singles Puccinelli (8.37), freshman
Not much info to go on here, but Puccinelli did have a solid straight set win over Jackie Calla from Amherst at the ITAs. Calla has proven herself as a very reliable competitor, so that’s a good win but let’s not go crazy over 1 match.
def Lindbloom (Trin) 6-1, 6-1
def Calla (Amh) 7-5, 6-3
lost to Yu (Wes) 6-3, 6-1
lost to Shin (Wil) 6-4, 3-6, 10-8
lost Calla (Amh) 6-2, 3-6, 10-2

#5 Singles: Orozco (8.17), junior
Orozco also seemed to be abroad this fall. Hopefully she will be back for the spring to add experience and depth to the lineup. Orozco has been all over the lineup, ending last season at #4. #5 is probably the lowest that she has played, and all that experience should pay off this year. She won’t power through you (which you don’t need at #5), but she will hit a variety of shots to get you off balance.

#6 Singles: Paradies (8.58)/Miller (8.16), freshmen
Not sure who Coach Morgan will have at the #6 spot but it’s nice to have such a deep lineup. Hopefully one of the freshmen will

Doubles:
Coach Morgan used a mix of teams in the few matches they played in the fall, so not sure what the teams will be, but there is a good mix of experience and young energy to work with here. At the top spot I might go Gerger/Bondy but the rest is a toss up.

Schedule Analysis:

The NCAA Championship Pools were restructured in 2015, and the breakdown looks like this:
Pool A (AQ Conference Champions): 40
Pool B (Independents) : 1
Pool C (At-Large): 8

Middlebury plays in the NESCAC, which is the toughest conference in the nation for women’s tennis, with 4 of their teams in the top 10. (The UAA and SCIAC each have 2 teams in the top 10.) Let’s look at Midd’s schedule: http://athletics.middlebury.edu/sports/wten/2015-16/schedule
The ranked teams they play are:
3/19 #17 Wesleyan
3/25 at #31 Babson
3/31 at #7 Pomona
4/2 at #4 CMS
4/9 at #1 Williams
4/10 at #24 Tufts
4/15 #2 Emory
4/16 #8 Bowdoin
4/17 #16 Skidmore
4/23 at #9 MIT
4/30 at #3 Amherst

Not lacking in strength of schedule here. One of the things that stand out to me is the back to back Emory/Bowdoin weekend. That’s going to be a huge weekend at home for Midd. And there aren’t a lot of teams ranked above Midd but they will be playing all four of them this spring. Of the teams ranked below them, I’d say the #7 Pomona and #8 Bowdoin matches should be great battles.
The NESCAC Tournament should be a very competitive tournament this year. In addition to the usual top 4 (Williams, Amherst, Midd, Bowdoin), Wesleyan and a reloaded Tufts should round out the 6 teams in the tournament. There will be no easy matches in any of the rounds.
In terms of Pool C, Midd should be comfortably in, as I don’t see them as being lower than the 5th team in, and as high as 1st team in.

D3NEW’s 3 Keys to Middlebury’s Season:

#1. Leadership – Seniors and juniors and especially Gerger at the top of the lineup will need to step up and will this team to the next level.
#2. Beat #1 Williams or #2 Emory – Midd will need to get a signature win against one of these teams in order to give them a new level of confidence going forward.
#3. Luck – As with any sports, luck, good or bad, has a part in the outcome. Will Midd make the most of their opportunities? We shall see!
Mind you, this is no small feat. It is much easier to move from #30 to #20 than it is to make any movement in the top 10, let alone the top 5! But I think Midd can do it this year.

Well, that’s it for now, I hope you enjoyed reading!!