The other bloggers will provide extensive coverage of Indoors, but given that this is my favorite weekend of the season, I wanted to add my two cents. Below are brief thoughts regarding all of the teams competing.
Trinity (TX) – Whether or not the Tigers are a serious contender to win this tournament is highly dependent upon Paxton Deuel playing. Rumor has it that he will not be playing, so I’m going to write this preview under that assumption. He’s a top 8 singles player in the country and I think they absolutely need him to have a chance against Hopkins. Trinity needs to be very careful that they don’t overlook Gustavus in the first round because there’s nothing more dangerous than being overconfident at Indoors when having to play the Gusties. The Tigers have traditionally been shaky early in the season and they have not been in top form during their matches so far this year playing with what seems to be a depleted lineup. I think the Tigers are most likely the 4th or 5th best team at Indoors, so if they can somehow manage a 3rd place finish or finals appearance, they should be pleased. I think they get out of the first round after a battle but then get beaten comfortably twice by Hopkins and Emory. Big picture, I think the loss of can Deuel could potentially drop Trinity 3 to 4 spots in the rankings.
Gustavus – I think most would pick Gustavus the finish 8th at this tournament but one thing that I can guarantee is that GAC will fight in every match. Trinity is historically not the best at Indoors and Gustavus is in prime position to pull the upset. While I don’t expect that to happen, I do predict a very close 6-3. While GAC did lose their top 4 players from last year’s team, they usually manage to bring another gear to this tournament and play tough with teams who are out of their league. Gustavus will most likely have a shot at Case Western in the first round backdraw and this is another opportunity for GAC as we saw Case’s vulnerability last weekend. Even if GAC starts 0-2, they will have another chance in the 7th place match against Kenyon most likely. The moral of the story is that I wouldn’t be totally shocked by a Gustavus upset of Trinity, however I have to pick GAC to finish 7th place because they are a little too inexperienced to knock off a top team.
Johns Hopkins – After last year’s Indoors final appearance and first round thrashing of Emory, JHU is a trendy pick to win the tournament this year. Despite a disappointing fall loss to Amherst, Hopkins enters this season with a ton of talent and a lot of experience after a deep NCAA run last year. A potentially dangerous first round against Case Western has turned into what looks to be an easy win for Hopkins and given Trinity’s missing players, the path to a second consecutive final looks very clear. While Hopkins has historically had some doubles issues, those seemed to be fixed last season. If they get in a 3-0 hole against Case or Trinity, it could be tough to dig out of that, but their singles talent is far better than both of those opponents. I think JHU should be gunning for a championship here and if they finish 2nd, that’s still a very good result. Any worse than that and I think the Jays are going to be leaving Minnesota with some big doubts for the remainder of 2015.
Case Western – Case is in rebuilding mode this year after their outstanding 2014 campaign. This will be a good learning experience for their younger guys and new starters. I view Case as the 6th best team at Indoors and nothing last weekend showed me that they have the potential to beat a team as good as Hopkins. Chicago is a solid team, but I view JHU as another level from an experience and mental toughness perspective. Case’s top guys can certainly play with the likes of a JHU or CMU, but the depth is where they will get in trouble at Indoors. The Spartans had a great opening round upset of Kenyon at last year’s Indoors, but I just don’t see a repeat of that. I think Case loses to Hopkins comfortably, squeaks out a tough win against Gustavus and ends the tournament with a close loss to Carnegie as the Tartans get some revenge for last year’s NCAA loss. If Case can get out of the first round that’s a huge accomplishment and they are also a little too good to be losing to GAC.
Emory – The 2015 season for the Eagles should be all about getting their mojo back. After their 2012 national title and the loss of Pottish and Goodwin, Emory hasn’t been quite right. This year’s team is packed with seniors and I don’t think a top 3 finish in the country is out of the question. However, to accomplish this and to win their 6th Indoors title, the Eagles will need to play much better than they have the past 2 seasons. Doubles was the clear achilles heel for Emory in 2014, so I would hope that’s where the emphasis has been during the offseason. I think the only way they lose to Carnegie for the 2nd time in a row is if they get down in doubles as CMU does have the firepower to split singles with the Eagles. That said and despite the shocking loss at UAAs last year, I view Emory as a heavy favorite in this first round and the 2nd best team at this tournament behind Wash U. The semifinal on the bottom half will most likely be the next chapter in the best rivalry in D3. I like the Bears to pull that out but I expect Emory to capture 3rd place in this tournament which is a very solid performance.
Carnegie Mellon – In the opposite light of Emory, CMU is trying to keep the momentum going that they built during the 2014 season. The Tartans haven’t had a great start this year with a tough loss to Amherst and shaky performances against D1 teams the last couple weeks playing with what looks like a depleted lineup. Simply put, CMU will need to bring their A+ game if they want to beat Emory for the 2nd time in a row. I view CMU as the 5th best team at this tournament. I think they go down comfortably in the first round but then get 2 wins against Kenyon and Case to capture 5th place. Anything better than 5th is a huge accomplishment for the Tartans, who are supposed to be better than they were last year given 6 returning starters. The big question for them is can they take that next step forward or will they stall at 8-10 in the country. A huge test against Emory will help us answer that question but I just don’t like their chances in this match given the situation.
Wash U – I am predicting that Wash U wins National Indoors for the second consecutive year. Not too recently, the Bears lost in 3 consecutive finals and even skipped Indoors one year. This year’s Wash U team is a more experienced version of the 2014 squad that was #2 in the nation for the majority of the season before an uncharacteristic loss to Trinity (TX) in the NCAA quarterfinals. I think there are only 2 teams that are capable of beating Wash U this year and those teams are Hopkins and Emory. The Bears play outstanding doubles and have what’s probably the best middle of the lineup in the tournament. They also have excellent intangibles such as coaching and mental toughness. Where Wash U looks like it can be cracked is the top of the lineup, so if Carswell and Putterman are getting wins this weekend, don’t expect the Bears to lose. I think they blow out Kenyon before winning 5-4 or 6-3 against Emory in a match that’s not as close as the score. Hopkins will push the Bears in the final, but I expect a match similar to last year where Wash U finds that extra gear that JHU doesn’t have.
Kenyon – As you can tell by now, I have to pick someone to finish last and its Kenyon. The Lords won this tournament in 2013 but since that epic final against Emory, they haven’t been the same. Kenyon had an impressive win a few weeks ago against a very talented Case team and there’s an excellent chance I’m underestimating them. I just expect the Lords to suffer 2 relatively bad losses to Wash U and CMU and not be ready to play against a Gusties team that’s always fired up. If Kenyon can finish top 6 at this tournament, that’s a great accomplishment. The Lords have some very good players and actually played Emory very tough in the NCAA Round of 16 last year, they just haven’t been able to get a lot of good wins recently. If Kenyon goes into this tournament with a nothing to lose mentality and Heerboth and Geier are on their games, Kenyon could give Wash U and CMU a handful. The Lords got a little unlucky with their draw and I expect them to leave St. Peter with a lot of questions and a lot to work on.